I know this sounds lazy, but all I (and most) people want to do is easily find and communicate with likeminded folks and share stuff. Every time something new comes along in the fediverse, it feels like a long, drawn-out research project to figure what the hell it is, if it has traction, how and if one would want to migrate, etc etc etc. Most people find this exhausting and lose interest. It really feels like nothing is going to stabilize and mature, but bifurcate more.