ZeroCovidColin
If you're expecting 2023 to be the year you get to live 'normally'; this thought is one foot in the door to delusion.
Please don't fall into the thought or expectation that there's a time limit to the #COVID #pandemic and that it is almost over.
The pandemic continues to rage on because other people decided to believe 'normal' was coming and the pandemic would end because it went too long.
China is about to unleash a tsunami of new #Sars2 variants. #CovidIsNotOver #BringBackMasks
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@ZeroCovidColin There will always be variants of viruses (1918 swine flu has variants today).
My question is, are hospitalizations up from #COVID & are people dying from COVID at alarming rates nationwide‽
My area has slightly higher infections, but COVID hospitalizations & deaths from COVID are extremely rare now.
I think this is a combination of people getting vaccinated & infected with prior variants.
People seem more concerned about the seasonal flu than COVID now.
ZeroCovidColin
Finally, Sars2 causes immunity damage. It kills needed T-cells and damages the immune systems capability to respond to new infections. Sars2 uses ACE2 receptors found in most cells in your body to enter cells and can spread throughout your body to brain, heart, and in your circulatory system to other organs. Influenza cannot and does not do this, as it only binds to cells within the respiratory tract & lungs.
Influenza immunity also lasts > 3yrs. Sars2 immunity is gone in < 1yr.
ZeroCovidColin
Lets look at the reasons why the situation is different.
Many use the argument that influenza was so deadly in 1918 that it had to become more infectious and milder just to keep spreading. If this were the case, you'd expect influenza to currently have very high levels of transmission in these 'mild' variants we would have today.
This never happened. Influenza has a very low transmission rate of r0 of 1.5 to 3. Sars2 is now r0 > 12 at minimum and higher than measles (18) at maximum.
ZeroCovidColin
2) The 1918 flu was spread via close quarters on ships because of a war. That war ended and the virus stopped spreading as travel by boat between countries stopped happening. As I'm sure you've noticed, massive COVID outbreaks have happened on Cruise ships.
If influenza of 1918 was as infectious as COVID is now, we would've had to develop a better vaccine for it than we have. In addition, that better vaccine would've wiped the flu out in a way current vax/immunity can't with COVID.
ZeroCovidColin
There's a lot of things in what you're saying that people have incorrectly passed to one another to minimize illnesses & COVID in particular.
1) Sars2 mutates at a higher rate than influenza, by a lot. This happens because of two reasons, it's size is much larger, making it error-prone. The second being coronaviruses are naturally resistant to many antivirals because of their error correction process called proofreading. Influenza doesnt have this. This allows better propagation.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin Hospitalizations have been down for months for #COVID in my area.
Nurses are not working crazy overtime hours & hospitals now allow guests to enter (before they were banned) since last summer.
Maybe it's skyrocketing in urban areas‽ Right now, there is greater concern over the seasonal flu than COVID.
Nathanael Nerode
Yes, hospitalizations are up. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, of course -- you're seeing it in NYC first.
Yes, people are dying from #Covid at alarming rates nationwide -- the death rate overall is still 10% higher than it was in 2019! -- and it's rising.
Same old instructions apply: get a really snug-fitting #elastomeric #N95 or #P100 #respirator #mask, wear it whenever out of your home, install #HEPA filters or #CorsiRosenthalBoxes at home & work...
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin Yeah, the data is backing what I am seeing. #COVID hospitalizations are indeed down across the #UnitedStates ??: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital
I think infections are up, but hospitalizations are plateauing out.
Nathanael Nerode
What really frustrates me is that we have the tools to stop #Covid and #Flu and #RSV.
The #respirator #masks (#N95, #P100, #KF94, etc) filter it out. The #HEPA filters filter it out.
This works in hospitals (Cambridge study), schools (AbromeEd, Brisbane independent school), the HEPA filters even work in a restaurant (Apricot Tree Cafe).
Let's just do that. #CleanTheAir. Why are we breathing dirty, infected air? We don't have to.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin That is tens of thousands out of a population of 330 million in the #UnitedStates ??.
Tens of thousands are in the hospital, not tens of millions like before.
In my area, only 7% of ICU beds are due to #COVID (I had to Google that info) compared to, I think, over 70% near the beginning of 2022 (2020 & 2021 were well over 100%!!).
Infections are probably up, but hospitalizations are not. Guests can even visit hospitals now (they were banned before).
Nathanael Nerode
READ YOUR OWN GRAPH, that is an UPWARD SLOPING LINE THERE
Come on, man, just look at that line at the end. LINE GO UP.
Went up from about 20,000 patients in hospital to about 40,000 -- right there in the graph
Really, stop deluding yourself.
You literally just posted a graph showing that hospitalizations are going up, and then claimed that it showed the opposite. Come ON!!!!
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin ??♂️
Nathanael Nerode
@darnell @ZeroCovidColin You're getting reported and banned for violating server rules. I gave you several chances.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin You claim misinformation where I am showing what is happening in reality in my area. But if you want to be intolerant about differing perspectives, that is your prerogative.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin I know people who died from COVID & I have people in my neighborhood who are immunocompromised.
The latter are out living their everyday lives pre-COVID without a mask (to my surprise).
That is when I began asking friends & relatives who work in hospitals if #COVID was still creating havoc.
They said it's not as bad as 2020-2021 & hospitalizations have dropped due to increased vaccinations.
Nathanael Nerode
@darnell @ZeroCovidColin It's only going to hurt you. Covid doesn't care what delusional beliefs you have.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@amcglothin @neroden @ZeroCovidColin That makes sense.
I remember when #COVID was in full swing, many of my friends, family & coworkers rushed to get vaccinated (Moderna was our top choice & we avoided Johnson & Johnson due to a few rare side effects).
We even got boosted. I think around last year at the end of summer & beginning of fall is when people started to act normal again.
Andy McGlothin ☮
@darnell @neroden @ZeroCovidColin If you zoom in on the data a little, you can see that since Thanksgiving the number of hospitalized has continued to rise and will most likely continue to rise for at least 2 more weeks. And given that the new variant XBB.1.5 that is now becoming prevalent in the US is far more immune evasive that number may continue to rise for months longer.
As far as deaths are concerned, using the 7-day rolling average, they had fallen to about 300 per day just before Thanksgiving but shot back up to over 400 per day for a couple weeks after the holiday. This will probably be the trend for Christmas and New Years. 2-3 weeks of 400+ deaths per day.
We are at the endemic stage of this disease. We just have to accept that it isn't going away. We may have to accept around 100,000 deaths per year from COVID-19 as normal.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@ZeroCovidColin @neroden I live in the southeast & it was really awful for a few years.
Around last year (end of summer, beginning of fall), I noticed people moving about more maskless. Even the immunocompromised in my neighborhood stopped wearing masks.
My relatives & friends in the hospital did inform me that ICU beds due to #COVID have dramatically dropped off as well.
More people are vaccinated & boosted, though (I wonder if that is a factor‽).
ZeroCovidColin
What area is your area? Because what you shared are hospitilizations nationwide. Just because it isn't as bad as the worst it's ever been doesn't make it not a problem.
You're taking a few extreme points and discounting the damage being done, which isn't entirely in hospitilization and deaths.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@reneestephen @neroden @ZeroCovidColin I still see headlines, but most just cite infections now.
I knew things were really bad a few years ago when the funeral homes were working overtime (that is never a good sign!).
They are far less busy now thankfully.
Renée
@darnell here in our province COVID deaths have gone UP every year of the pandemic, and 2022 was no exception (and that's directly attributed deaths, the excess mortality is up far higher). We've just stopped noticing because there aren't headlines about it anymore.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin I mentioned my area specifically. Reread my previous posts.
Nathanael Nerode
You can describe what's happening in your area, but claiming that hospitalizations are down nationwide when they've doubled is disinformation, and deflecting when this is pointed out is classic minimization.
The direction is clear. Let's stop the spread of Covid before it gets any worse. It'll get to your region.
So put on your mask.
If you want to be a fool and ignore the problem, rather than just wearing a mask and protecting yourself, that is your right.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin If it deaths do spike up again I hope the US government does not hoard N95 masks again.
I understand their reasoning, but I was enraged about not being allowed to purchase any last time.
I actually wore a face shield with my cloth mask inside stores & on airplanes where allowed (some airlines in Europe threatened to kick me off if I kept the face shield on so I complied).
Nathanael Nerode
Yes, the pandemic situation is not currently as bad as it was in January of 2022, which was the *worst in over 100 years*. That's... not saying much.
If we don't start actually DOING SOMETHING, we're just gonna get another round of this. We can already see the trend.
The latest variant is EXTREMELY good at evading vaccines. It can't evade masks or HEPA filters though.
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin Yeah, I almost went broke paying for #COVID tests because my insurance refused to.
I had managers & coworkers infected (some who lost family members) & I was exposed to people who were infected dozens of times (all the tests came back negative, but I was paying $150 each).
I did remember getting really sick for about a week later on (I lost the will to eat), but I could not afford to pay for any more tests & all the hospitals were full.
Nathanael Nerode
That was INFURIATING. Yeah, I'm completely with you on that.
The US government has SO much blood on their hands. So much. They hoarded N95s. They told people not to wear them! They told people Covid wasn't airborne, when it was airborne! They told people to take their masks off if they were vaccinated (terrible advice)! They hid the "community transmission map" and substituted a "are the hospitals full" map!
Jason
@amcglothin @darnell @neroden @ZeroCovidColin Here’s a great write up on the current variant by an epidemiologist https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/covid-in-china-the-us-and-everything
Darnell Clayton :verified:
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin Really‽ That is crazy but believable. Last time I visited the hospital last year, nurses barely had their mask on (some did not wear any).
Nathanael Nerode
The government won't even require DOCTORS to wear N95s! Doctor's offices are infecting people routinely now, and hospital-acquired infections are rising.
Nathanael Nerode
@darnell @ZeroCovidColin .... Walensky at the CDC told everyone to only isolate for 5 days, when many people are infectious for 14 days, thus making people spread the virus faster! They told everyone to test at home and gave people no way to report the tests, so that we couldn't estimate infection numbers! It goes on and on.
Andy McGlothin ☮
@neroden @ZeroCovidColin @darnell
I think our definition of endemic is different. I'm going by this definition:
"An endemic disease always has a steady, predictable number of people getting sick, but that number can be high (hyperendemic) or low (hypoendemic), and the disease can be severe or mild."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)
All on board with what you are saying as far as #HEPA filters and proper masks. No disagreement here.
Nathanael Nerode
@amcglothin @ZeroCovidColin @darnell
"Endemic" means mass death and disability and 19th-century-level death and disability rates. That's undesirable. So... what's your point?
We could stop this with #HEPA filters and #N95 & #P100 masks. How about we try that?
The evidence says that each variant gets more vaccine-evasive than the last, so if we don't use HEPA / MERV-13 air filters and N95 / P100 masks, death rates will go right back up. This is totally predictable.
Andy McGlothin ☮
@ZeroCovidColin @darnell @neroden I would say I'm not trying to minimize it. I'm just looking at the data and where the numbers are trending. Of course what I said assumes that a new variant doesn't cause more mortality. There's always a chance this could get worse. But that likelihood gets smaller every day due to vaccinations and natural infection.
I get that it's still a deadly disease, and that people should be taking precautions. But it's been nearly 9 months since we've seen a large spike in infections. Though I'm sure it's debatable, it really looks like this virus has started to become endemic.
ZeroCovidColin
You are extrapolating from the lowest deaths per day we have had over 365 days to get 100k. It is HIGHLY unlikely to be anywhere close to the actual death numbers. It'll be months before we know the final COVID death toll for the US, but we're already over 260k for 2022. We've never had less.
Your post is a mixture of accurate information and minimization. COVID is not endemic.
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