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   Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:08:15 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

   Thanks all.

   I asked this question because my prior was that it was MUCH fewer. The increase in use of AI for software developers, plus the massive layoffs of developers by big tech companies, gave me the sense that there was a serious dent being made in the job market.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:09:44 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     Here's the Bureau of Labour Statistics data for May 2022.

     https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes151252.htm

     It shows 1,534,790 software developer jobs.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:15:08 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     I think there are a lot of ways this data could be misleading. First, a lot of developer jobs have different codes.

     https://www.bls.gov/oes/2025/may/oes_stru.htm#15-0000

     I didn't check how they went up or down; I just looked at "Software Developers".

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:15:09 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     That's almost exactly a 10% rise.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:15:10 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     Here's the data for May 2025, the last year reported:

     https://data.bls.gov/oesprofile/?major_group=150000&occupation=151252&measure=01&areas=INDUSTRY,STATE,MSA

     It shows 1,687,890 jobs.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:17:30 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     Its also been 15 months since May 2025, and maybe things have changed a lot since then.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:18:44 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     But the BLS also predicts another 10% rise over the next 10 years.

     https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupations-most-job-growth.htm

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:21:27 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     Also, this is the Trump-era BLS, and it's unfortunately become politicized.

     https://time.com/7308973/danger-trump-undercutting-bls/

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:24:08 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     I am happy to entertain other analyses though!

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:24:09 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     Regardless, I think this is the best data I'm going to get. I think a 10% rise in jobs is much more, so that's my answer.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:35:55 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     • Nathan A. Stine

     @stinerman how did that affect your response?

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     Nathan A. Stine (stinerman@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:35:56 JST Nathan A. Stine

     in reply to

     @evan I think there are a lot of software developers who are that in name only. That is their title, but their job is mostly to do code review on the output of AI models.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:37:59 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     • Rabbit Cohen

     @BathysphereHat and then you won't get points!

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     Rabbit Cohen (bathyspherehat@mastodon.online)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:38:00 JST Rabbit Cohen

     in reply to

     @evan Oh, huh, interesting!
     Side note: I always find the results for the polls with factual answers interesting, but I get really nervous about answering them because I might be wrong.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:43:12 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     • Space Catitude 🚀

     @TerryHancock none of those were relevant to the poll question, though.

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     Space Catitude 🚀 (terryhancock@realsocial.life)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:43:14 JST Space Catitude 🚀

     in reply to

     @evan
     Personally, I guessed a small dip, quite recently. But really, I have no way to know.

     There are a lot of other things going on, of course. A simple "10% rise" may not tell the whole story. Salaries might be declining. Particular sectors might be depleted, etc. And there might churn -- both hiring and firing.

     Which would be interesting, because a lot of other sectors are experiencing stagnation -- neither hiring nor firing.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:43:17 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     • rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua

     @GustavinoBevilacqua what disappearing jobs are you talking about?

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     rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua (gustavinobevilacqua@mastodon.cisti.org)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 05:43:19 JST rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua

     in reply to

     @evan

     It would be curious to see which are the disappearing jobs.

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     Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸 (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 06:01:51 JST Evan Prodromou 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇷🇵🇸

     in reply to

     • rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua

     @GustavinoBevilacqua oh. Sure. Knock yourself out; the data is public.

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     rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua (gustavinobevilacqua@mastodon.cisti.org)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Sep-2026 06:01:54 JST rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua

     in reply to

     @evan

     Farrier, for example, or saddle maker.