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   Tim Chambers (tchambers@indieweb.social)'s status on Saturday, 25-Apr-2026 23:40:01 JST Tim Chambers

   I'm convinced that very soon, all AI model capabilities will be negligible for most users & completely commoditized & also have near zero switching costs. No "moat" for any of them. #AI https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/chinas-deepseek-launches-v4-ai-model-claimed-to-outperform-google-gemini-chatgpt-and-other-american-ai-systems/articleshow/1304

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     Tim Chambers (tchambers@indieweb.social)'s status on Sunday, 26-Apr-2026 00:07:56 JST Tim Chambers

     in reply to

     • Scott Jenson

     @scottjenson Agreed: I think you just described Apple’s strategy.

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     Scott Jenson (scottjenson@social.coop)'s status on Sunday, 26-Apr-2026 00:07:57 JST Scott Jenson

     in reply to

     @tchambers I think you’re right. But what I'm concerned about is that someone will create a layer on top of the models, e.g. access to specific data, connecting to specific services, that will create a moat.

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     Tim Chambers (tchambers@indieweb.social)'s status on Sunday, 26-Apr-2026 00:34:55 JST Tim Chambers

     in reply to

     • lakelady

     @lakelady Just fixed!

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     lakelady (lakelady@mstdn.social)'s status on Sunday, 26-Apr-2026 00:34:57 JST lakelady

     in reply to

     @tchambers link "Access Denied"

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     McNeely (mcneely@indieweb.social)'s status on Sunday, 26-Apr-2026 02:33:41 JST McNeely

     in reply to

     @tchambers I'm not that confident but I do think that there isn't much of "moat" around the models. If Chinese labs can distill more open models out of the big closed American labs they are probably always going to be just barely behind. At a certain point do the "breakthroughs" matter to people? Especially when the general public is already becoming AI weary??? I doubt it very much.

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     Tim Chambers (tchambers@indieweb.social)'s status on Sunday, 26-Apr-2026 02:39:19 JST Tim Chambers

     in reply to

     • McNeely

     @McNeely Yes, that is my main point. And I do think open and free models, along with less expensive mid level commerical models will all get to pretty much indistiinguishable from each other fo what most end users use them for over say 5 years. And switching is pretty effortless.

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     McNeely (mcneely@indieweb.social)'s status on Sunday, 26-Apr-2026 03:04:12 JST McNeely

     in reply to

     @tchambers so I just finished reading Empire of AI and they talk A LOT about the cost in compute and time to train models. I think we're going to see one of two things in the next 3-5 years. Either the Open models just can't afford to spend to train like the major American AI labs are doing and the gap gradually widens again (scaling laws rule and if you can't scale 🤷). Or the other alternative, US firms blow their $$$ and time and don't get anywhere faster. Running faster is not a great plan!