Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 07:54:48 JST Bread up, Bro
   interesting to see Vance actually addressing concerns that people, not pundits, have.
   • BowserNoodle ☦️ likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 07:55:03 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber I think a lot of people are lying, so I'm not particularly in a hurry to settle on facts.
     
     I do think those boats they were blowing up were indeed drug boats, and as far as I can tell TdA is from Venezuela and they did in deed take over shit in freaking Colorado.
     BowserNoodle ☦️ likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 07:55:04 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro He didn't even get one sentence in before strawmanning. The fent thing was used by trump and for cocaine Venezuela is also not even on the map.
     Maybe he should have picked a topic where they weren't just lying to people
   • Embed this notice
     BowserNoodle ☦️ (bowsacnoodle@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:00:23 JST BowserNoodle ☦️

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber @sickburnbro I think you’re being a bit heavy in your criticism here. The oil thing alone could be justification to “get our stuff back“. I know WE don't benefit from that, but it isn’t a lie.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:03:53 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro So since you think those things aren't just distractions for the dumb goys, that means if you had to put some clout chips on the table, your predictions would be:
     
     -The Venezuela op will make a dent in US cocaine influx
     -it will lower the oil price
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:03:53 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber the most likely driving force behind this is to modulate oil prices against Russia.
     
     The attacking of oil tankers and russia asking that they stop doing that fits well with that.
     
     I don't think prices are going to necessarily lower, but we won't see them hit 100 bbl in the next two years, which would absolutely cripple the country.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:10:37 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro Okay. Additionally, I'm going to pencil you in for the cocaine thing too, barring further interventions like setting Colombia on fire, closing the border, or regime change in Mexico (as if they would, lol) which obviously would make the whole thing moot
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:11:28 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber this is just wild conjecture on your part, you nor I have any real information on what facts on the ground look like for this.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:16:49 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro What do you mean?
     we both can't know where the cocaine is coming from or
     we both can't know if taking out the alleged head of an allegedly major drug cartel will have any impact on drug exports into the biggest buyer country?
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:16:49 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber what I mean is that something like illegal drugs by definition are illegible and so you can't say "hmm yes, the Sinola cartel has forecasted moving 100 million less kilos this quarter"
     
     Similarly, governments will either want to overstate how much they are doing to suppress, or under-report how much they are failing.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:28:19 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber the only high value data here, btw is the drug test rate
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:28:20 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @sickburnbro
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:28:20 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber what do you notice between these data sources
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:28:21 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro so you're saying it WILL impact imports but neither of us could prove it because the proxies for cocaine availability are too bad?
     Why isn't street price a good enough indicator for supply?
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:31:27 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber I'm saying it's likely to impact imports. Street price is a poor indicator because it can easily be adulterated.
     
     A big change, like a reduction of imports by an order of magnitude would be certainly reflected in street price. I don't this - even if that was what they were trying to do, and were successful in doing - would cause a change like that.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:32:00 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro they all seem like interesting proxies that when combined yield some interesting insights into cocaine availability and consumption.
     I haven't, but would, read up on illicit drug import volume estimation. Provided you were willing to make any prediction about it. It sounds like you were though in the other post: unaffected by this. Not sure if that's worth doing all the leg work to see what's what.
     Apparently there is research on this though
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:32:00 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber I mean it's *interesting* data, but the problem is that unless you can constrain things they can be more misleading than useful. The drug test rates are useful because they are the most controlled.
   • Embed this notice
     BowserNoodle ☦️ (bowsacnoodle@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:49:54 JST BowserNoodle ☦️

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber @sickburnbro Okay, but that still doesn’t make it a lie. I don’t enjoy being the defender of finance capitalism, but reality is what it is.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 08:49:55 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to

     • BowserNoodle ☦️
     @BowsacNoodle @sickburnbro >they took our oil stuff
     "The Jew will always tell you what was done to him, but never why." Old proverb
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 09:03:24 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber I think that unless there is a huge change, yes these methods are insufficient to be able to make any kind of judgement.
     
     A substance that is illegal to produce, illegal to distribute and illegal to consume is going to be hard to get high fidelity data on simple because all the incentives align against getting that data.
     
     Please note that you are making the assertation that vance is saying venezuela was worth being hit over producing cocaine. I don't think that's what he is saying.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 09:03:25 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro so given all these and pic rel you still think it's hopeless to estimate imported tonnage?
     Then how is Vance so sure it was worth hitting Venezuela over producing cocaine? How can he know how much they produce?
   • Embed this notice
     BloodLibel (bloodlibel@nicecrew.digital)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 09:57:33 JST BloodLibel

     in reply to
     This is the guy you’re glazing.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 09:57:33 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to
     @BloodLibel I don't think I'm glazing a shitty jewish singer
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 11:00:38 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • BowserNoodle ☦️
     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     • Her Menstruating Testes 🇮🇳
     @freemayonnaise @BowsacNoodle @WandererUber I'm not actually trying to get you worked up, mayo. you should take a break.
   • Embed this notice
     Her Menstruating Testes 🇮🇳 (freemayonnaise@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 11:00:54 JST Her Menstruating Testes 🇮🇳

     in reply to

     • BowserNoodle ☦️
     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     @BowsacNoodle @WandererUber @sickburnbro

     It is a lie, the only thing in dispute (literally) is if the compensation amounts for the seized assets have been sufficient.

     You can look into this...

     IPOTUS and IVPOTUS are both repeating idiocy for goyim and Sick here somehow has both their dicks in his mouth simultaneously.

   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 11:06:30 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • BloodLibel
     • Her Menstruating Testes 🇮🇳
     @freemayonnaise @BloodLibel if you want hilarious, keep going
   • Embed this notice
     Her Menstruating Testes 🇮🇳 (freemayonnaise@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 05-Jan-2026 11:06:31 JST Her Menstruating Testes 🇮🇳

     in reply to

     • BloodLibel

     @sickburnbro @BloodLibel

     your level of analysis is a hilarious reading on a Sunday evening.

   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 00:18:32 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber No, what I'm saying is that the cartels have a lot of money and they like money. In order to really shut this stuff down what must happen is the cartels must be bankrupted. Since they have major infrastructure in Mexico as well as a lot of other countries, this isn't a simple task.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 00:18:33 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro what IS he saying? Apparently no hope of stopping cocaine imports, so then how is it relevant?
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 00:48:06 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro Well you kinda dodged my question and told me what YOU think about cartels. You still seem to be saying this will impact their income, which is drugs. That doesn't go with what you told me before.
     
     To get back to what I was asking:
     
     -You told me, VANCE was not saying that cocaine production was relevant to the assessment of hitting them.
     >vance is [NOT] saying venezuela was worth being hit over producing cocaine.
     
     -His tweet reads verbatim:
     >If you cut out the money from cocaine, you substantially weaken the cartels overall
     (implication this strike will hit a major cocaine producer for US imports)
     
     -You told me, it is practically impossible to determine even the amount of cocaine imports, implying source and funding is totally out of the question.
     
     These three things don't go together. My question was:
     What was VANCE saying?
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 00:48:06 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber -You told me, VANCE was not saying that cocaine production was relevant to the assessment of hitting them. >vance is [NOT] saying venezuela was worth being hit over producing cocaine.

     this is not a correct understanding of what I said.

   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 00:55:32 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber I mean, I think he says in his answer there: "cocaine is a profit center for latin american cartels".
     
     Additionally I did not say "not possible to track" I said "the data is too noisy to track things outside of orders of magnitude"
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 00:55:33 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro goes back to my question anyways
     What IS he saying? It can't be that Venezuela is, and because of this strike will cease to be, a major importer of cocaine into the US. You yourself told me that's not possible to track...
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 01:21:12 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber You didn't ask that, though.
     
     I don't know how it fits together, and at this point I don't see a whole lot of value in guessing until we have more evidence.
     
     I think they were trying to negotiate with him and he was unwilling or unable to do what they wanted.
     
     I think controlling the cartels was a part of it.
     I think aiding China was part of it.
     I also think revenge for them nationalizing stuff that American companies had spent money on was a part of it.
     
     I don't think that's the whole picture, though.
     
     One thing I am still looking for a few pieces for is the voting machine stuff.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 01:21:13 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer
     @WandererUber I don't know what you're looking for, but you seem very upset that I'm not providing it. Do you want me to be your strawman or something else?
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 01:21:13 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro I'm looking for how the fuck this is supposed to fit together. I tried asking three times but for some reason you felt like saying something completely different than what I was asking about. And you don't feel like explaining when you claimed I misunderstood, so I'm even more in the dark than when we started here.
     I'm really not sure how I'm apparently now straw-manning you considering all this, but I have a feeling you don't want to explain that either.
   • Embed this notice
     Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer (wandereruber@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 06-Jan-2026 01:21:14 JST Wanderer über dem Nebelmeer

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro Vance's groundbreaking explanation for the critics of the strikes ("addressing concerns that people, not pundits, have.") was
     "They make money with cocaine in Latin America" but "We can't know if this does anything because it's not an order of magnitude" ?