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   Sir Pete (pete@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:43 JST Sir Pete

   The Russians could also give the Iranians a couple Oreshnik hypersonic missiles without violating the NPT. I don’t know how many they have now.

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     Sir Nedwood (ned@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:39 JST Sir Nedwood

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove

     @cjd
     Assad apparently didn't get enough Russian backing.

     Your point about the Mullahs disappearing opposition is kinda the same as mine. There needs to be organisation in order to overthrow power. And there is none.

     Good point about Iran just being bait. Not sure how well that would go. The Straits of Hormuz won't stay closed for long. It's just a temporary bargaining chip. And it doesn't even effect the US. It's the gulf states that suffer.
     @EvolLove @Pete

     ✙ dcc :pedomustdie: :phear_slackware: likes this.
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     Sir Nedwood (ned@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:40 JST Sir Nedwood

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove

     @cjd @EvolLove @Pete Yes agreed. But my point is they're not effective. They're on the back foot. It'll just keep the regime going as is for another couple of decades. But TBH I don't expect regime change any time soon. The claims of the "oh the people want democracy blah blah blah" is bullshit. It means nothing unless there is an organised minority that is able to take power. Is there? I haven't seen any suggestion of it.

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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:40 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood
     > organised minority that is able to take power
     
     It doesn't matter, because as long as the main regime has Russian backing, anyone who thinks they're going to overthrow them will be dead or in prison. That's what the "door-to-door Mossad raids" is about, it's not actually door-to-door, they know who they're after and those people are going to disappear.
     
     > They're on the back foot
     
     Their job is not to look like a majestic hero, their job is to bait the Americans into a land war, so if they look weak and ineffective, they're actually doing it right...
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     Sir Nedwood (ned@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:41 JST Sir Nedwood

     in reply to

     • EvolLove

     @EvolLove @Pete Because if it takes them any longer it means they weren't ready.

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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:41 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood
     What's taking time is Iran is on the phone trying to close a deal with Russia and/or China.
     
     Russia is not going to give them a nuke (IMO), they're going to give them classical weapons needed to close the Strait and make a total pest out of themselves.
     
     That's because Russia's goal is to make a situation that is impossible to solve without American boots on the ground in Iran, so then the US will get sucked into an unwinnable meatgrinder of a land war.
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     EvolLove (evollove@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:42 JST EvolLove

     in reply to

     • Sir Nedwood

     @ned @Pete

     How about waiting 48 hours before judging then?

     Russia is already talking about giving them Nukes.

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     Sir Nedwood (ned@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 15:17:43 JST Sir Nedwood

     in reply to

     @Pete If Iran doesn't pull out something big (whether it comes from Russia or China or whatever) within like the next 24-48hrs then they're toast IMO. It just proves they've got no capability or geopolitical credit.

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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:10 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood
     They don’t want to recreate the USSR
     
     We'll see...
     
     > You watch too much CNN/MSDNC
     
     I think I've seen all of 5 minutes in the last 2 decades
     ✙ dcc :pedomustdie: :phear_slackware: likes this.
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     Sir Pete (pete@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:11 JST Sir Pete

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood

     @cjd @EvolLove @ned
     They don’t want to recreate the USSR, as explained by every guest on Judge Nap etc.
     You watch too much CNN/MSDNC

     ✙ dcc :pedomustdie: :phear_slackware: repeated this.
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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:12 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood
     > they are profitable at $45
     
     Profitable enough to feed their people, and profitable enough to re-take the former USSR are 2 different numbers.
     
     > IRAN COULD SHUT OFF THE WORLD'S OIL SUPPLY
     
     Yessssssss.....
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     Sir Pete (pete@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:13 JST Sir Pete

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood

     @cjd @EvolLove @ned
     https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1937017775450648819
     “ IRAN COULD SHUT OFF THE WORLD'S OIL SUPPLY

     The Strait of Hormuz is a tiny waterway with massive power; up to 20 million barrels of oil pass through it every day, roughly 1/5 of the World's oil.

     If Iran shuts it down, gas prices could skyrocket, and global trade could take a hit.

     They’ve threatened it before, but never actually did it.

     This time might be different.

     Source: The Guardian”

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     Sir Pete (pete@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:14 JST Sir Pete

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood

     @cjd @EvolLove @ned
     It would be hard to squeeze Russia on oil prices, they are profitable at $45 a barrel.
     Most of the world’s population is on Iran’s side in this. Israel is a world pariah.
     They have already shot down 4 F-35’s
     The west does not have the leverage you think it does, this is not 1991.

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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:15 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood
     It doesn't matter, Russia has a customer for their oil, they have China. And when the Strait is closed, China will have to buy from them.
     
     BUT, this creates animosity between Russia and China because China doesn't *want* to spend so much on oil...
     
     I think there could have been a deal where Russia is allowed back into the west and China is isolated - but Russia didn't want that deal, they want to re-conquer their historical USSR territory first.
     
     America's best game would be:
     1. Assassinate Bibi because he double-crossed them
     2. Tell Iran if they close the Strait, there will be more air strikes and if they don't then there won't - keep the oil price low to squeeze Russia
     3. Arm Europe to bleed out Russia in Ukraine
     
     America's worst game would be:
     1. Let Bibi keep calling the shots
     2. Get bled out in Iran
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     Sir Nedwood (ned@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:16 JST Sir Nedwood

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove

     @EvolLove @cjd @Pete Would the world police make that trade? make peace with Russia to avoid boots on the ground in Iran? I expect the goal over all is just to isolate Russia/China/Iran from each other, and cut them off from global trade to keep their influence down. Cutting them all off simultaneously is obviously counter productive. If you can't win over Iran, maybe win over Russia instead?

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     EvolLove (evollove@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 17:19:17 JST EvolLove

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • Sir Nedwood

     @cjd @ned @Pete

     Or the ban on Russian oil will have to be lifted.

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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 19:32:17 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood
     That's just like, Russia's opinion, man
     ✙ dcc :pedomustdie: :phear_slackware: likes this.
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     Sir Pete (pete@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 19:32:18 JST Sir Pete

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood

     @cjd @EvolLove @ned
     What he does not want are NATO troops and missiles on his border.
     He has been very clear about that, since 2007.
     We have been creating a NATO empire moving closer to their border since 1991.
     We spent $5 billion dollars over throwing the elected government of Ukraine in 2014
     One of the lessons learned from the Soviet Empire is it expensive to rule over other people.
     They are the 4th largest economy in the world and are not 36 trillion in debt like we are.

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     Sir Pete (pete@noauthority.social)'s status on Monday, 23-Jun-2025 19:32:18 JST Sir Pete

     in reply to

     • cjd
     • EvolLove
     • Sir Nedwood

     @cjd @EvolLove @ned
     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qurDV4EjPWE