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1. Embed this notice
   cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 22:09:24 JST cjd
   Idea: Rather than socializing the cost of crime, hold the criminal liable.
   
   Can't pay -> Where does he live? Liability cascades to the owner of his place of residence.
   
   So for example, the child of a woman who rents her apartment commits a crime. He's liable (if over 18), then she's liable, if she can't pay then her landlord is liable.
   
   Effect:
   1. Landlords add liability protection to their insurance package
   2. Landlord insurance requires the landlord to demand insurance from the tenant
   3. Tenants buy insurance and risk adjusters price in likelihood of criminal activity
   4. Criminals are *strongly* incentivized to move elsewhere.
   • Embed this notice
     Another Linux Walt Alt (lnxw37b2@shitposter.world)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:18 JST Another Linux Walt Alt

     in reply to
     @cjd I don't know about now, with the current administration, but from at least 2008, financials aren't dependent on paying interest to attract funds. With strong political / government backing, they seem to be able to generate fees no matter what else is happening. I'm not sure I'd count them out as a sector for investors, no matter how much I think banks' and insurers' management should be wearing orange jumpsuits and leg irons.
   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:19 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     Personally I won't touch the stock market, it's all shit.
     
     Even if you just put a dollar into the S&P 500, that's weighted so half of it goes to tech, financials, and healthcare.
     
     Tech is full of imaginary valuation and cooked books.
     
     Financial is all underwater right now because no one wants 0.3% interest when they can get 5% on treasury notes.
     
     Healthcare has actual cashflow, but keep your eyes fixed on this COVID vaccine stuff, because there's a real good chance these companies are gonna end up like Asbestos companies at the end of the 90s.
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:20 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd I can't fuckin wait.
     AI bubble burst 2028 let's gooo!

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:21 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     In this case, cheap. Boomers own two things: A house (bubble), and a bunch of stocks (which right now is dominated by tech bubble shit e.g. NVDA).
     
     The establishment will (IMO) deflate both of these bubbles to wipe out boomer savings because stealing everything from everyone is how the system operates.
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:22 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd
     by "destroy X market" do you mean make it so cheap it can't be used to hold savings, or make it so expensive nobody can buy?

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:23 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     Oh, I was thinking about it from the perspective of preventing inflation, not using it to erase the savings of the elder class.
     
     The other day I wrote something about what I expect the US to do:
     1. Destroy the stock market
     2. Destroy the housing market
     3. Begin means-testing Medicare (nice house you got there, you don't need public support that much)
     4. Bunch of other stuff re screwing China etc
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:24 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd not if you print more money and let inflation eat the existing one

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:25 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     In that case it's a wash, because that money will be spent somehow by someone either way, either the old person or by a heir who receives the inheritance.
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:26 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd what if government is *not* spending money on the eldery, but the eldery have a fuckton of savings that they weren't spending for decades and now want to spend it all?

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:27 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     To combat inflation, government is forced to reduce money in circulation. They can either raise taxes on an already small and weak workforce, making them actually LESS productive (Laffer Curve), or they can reduce spending on the elderly. They arrive on Canadian Healthcare 10 times out of 10.
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:28 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd without the next generation, any pensions are doomed. Fewer working people -> fewer goods produced -> same money chasing more goods -> inflation

     And inflation is basically tax on savings

   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:29 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd hmm ok

     Still, the insurance would be socializing the costs of crime, just this time it'd be risk-weighted.

     That means risky activities that you nevertheless want to encourage (eg. having children) will be economically disincentivized

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:29 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     It's a great point, but this is not the only thing that discourages having children. In a lot of places, childcare is obscenely expensive, and one thing you can't really get around is the aspect of being sick more often (ask me how I know).
     
     I think the right way to incentivize having children is by a tax reduction - especially since we all know that without the next generation, public pensions are doomed.
   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:30 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     Insurers are never supposed to make a fuckton of money, their income should be matching their payouts, modulo a little bit of buffer space.
     
     That said, I think ANY group should be allowed to insure it's members. Say you and I are neighbors and we want to join in an insurance club, we should be allowed to set aside a few thousand € each in a fund, and then buy reinsurance to cover everything above what that fund can cover.
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:25:31 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd
     5. Insurers get to make a fuckton of money
     6. Having children is even more expensive, fertility rate plummets

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:26:02 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     And you're absolutely right that BTC is a big bet, but it's basically betting:
     
     1. Central banks are too incompetent and uncoordinated to issue a global reserve currency that they don't end up printing away to nothing
     2. Crypto remains a greasy pole and in the crypto-sphere BTC is impossible to dethrone
     3. Gold remains stupid and annoying to move around, protect, or transact in
     
     So basically it's betting against legacy institutions.
     
     Also I personally agree with most of Saifdean Ammous's political message, but that's a personal conviction so YMMV...
     Another Linux Walt Alt likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:26:03 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     Unless you're getting a really good rate of return, you're better off with US treasuries. You can use money market funds so you don't have to deal with actually purchasing the individual notes.
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:26:04 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd
     > to avoid bubbles, I will buy bitcoin

     Sorry, but no.

     Anyway, if Poland can't hold its promise on 10-year retail bonds then that probably means my home town is getting overran by RUS soldiers and I have bigger problems.

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:26:05 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     As long as the issuer of the bond is sure to remain solvent. US Treasuries are probably a pretty good deal at 5% but if the rate goes to 10% then those 5% notes you're holding aren't going to be so cool anymore.
     
     Then you can always just bet that no one will agree on anything but the internet will continue to work and gold will keep on being a giant pain in the butt to move around...
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:26:06 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd so yeah, as I thought before - sticking to inflation-indexed bonds and not getting into stonks until a global financial crisis hits

   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:26:07 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd are there ETFs that aggregate things like steel, agricultural tractors, and 155mm ammo?

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 24-May-2025 23:26:07 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     Yup, and you'd be lucky to beat inflation :(