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   Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Saturday, 21-Dec-2024 18:58:05 JST Charlie Stross

   This is important: another mortgage crisis is emerging, this time mostly in commercial/office estates. Wondered where all the back-to-office nonsense is coming from? It's the landlords—companies that are up to their armpits in subprime offices are trying to fill them. Same with "AI is coming for your jobs", it's to force the serfs back to the office (ideally for less money).
   https://atomicpoet.org/objects/9a15e9b7-f0e6-4c79-8743-6b61083c6462

   • Embed this notice
     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Saturday, 21-Dec-2024 19:39:06 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Thorne Lawler

     @thorne There was an academic paper I spotted in my media feed last week that found that "back to office" mandates lead to increased staff turnover, and companies generally lose their most skilled/valuable employees (who don't want to go back to the office and who—because skilled and already working remotely—can easily get jobs elsewhere.)

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     Thorne Lawler (thorne@rants.au)'s status on Saturday, 21-Dec-2024 19:39:07 JST Thorne Lawler

     in reply to

     @cstross the thing is- ‘back to the office’ initiatives are failing in a lot of cases. Labour-shortage means that companies who are hard-line lose employees to companies who aren’t; and once they’re gone, it’s prohibitive to replace them, especially if you’re hard-line.
     I have to wonder- when this one goes Lehman Brothers, who will the victims be? Who (if anyone) will support a bailout?

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     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Saturday, 21-Dec-2024 20:37:37 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Lucy B

     @linuxlucy The public sector is a special case—it tends to require face-to-face interaction with the public, civil service numbers have mushroomed since brexit, and so on. Meanwhile, if the city is *selling* land to developers, that risk is all on the developers—it's good for the municipality's balance sheet. Although smart developers would have a Plan B in hand right now—affordable housing (and pick Starmer's pocket for some financial support).

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     Lucy B (linuxlucy@mastodon.org.uk)'s status on Saturday, 21-Dec-2024 20:37:38 JST Lucy B

     in reply to

     @cstross in Manchester, the city council is investing loads in building new offices for the public sector and selling land to sell to the private sector to build more offices. The city centre has been a building site for over a decade and it's still going. I don't understand why they think this is a good idea? Are they just hoping it will become someone else's problem before the crash and what happens to those of us who live here?

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     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Saturday, 21-Dec-2024 22:25:37 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Graydon

     @graydon Yup.

     (Although I speculate that the problem with ferroconcrete is that steel rebar oxidizes over time: it could be replaced—admittedly at considerable cost—with something better, like titanium or carbon fibre composite rods.)

   • Embed this notice
     Graydon (graydon@canada.masto.host)'s status on Saturday, 21-Dec-2024 22:25:38 JST Graydon

     in reply to

     @cstross There are four things lurking down there somewhere.

     Ferroconcrete has a max lifespan of about a century. Most office buildings are unsuitable long term assets.

     The utility of the building assumes an energy price range for combustible energy inputs. We're leaving this range. (Cars AND furnaces.)

     The utility of the building assumes it can be cooled.

     Nobody priced in the first three.

     As a result, whole lot of the economy is sitting on fictitious prices.