Hrefna (DHC)
Florida is almost certainly going Republican this election—it's gotten redder over time—but it also counts very quickly and is east coast.
From a pure modeling and how-bad-is-my-sleep-going-to-be-tonight: I'm very interested in seeing the results. If the results are less than +6.6 for trump that's a good sign, more than that is a bad sign.
Not a lethal sign if more—there are a lot of local effects here that are kind of weird—but it definitely will not help the quality of my sleep.
Hrefna (DHC)
Especially good is if it is under +5 for Trump. That's right around where Marist and YouGov have been placing it, who are two of the higher quality pollsters who have been operating in the area.
Especially bad is if it is more than +10 or so for Trump. That is more line with NYT and some of the so-called "red-wave" pollsters and does not bode well.
Again, not lethal—there's a lot of nonlinear effects in play that are unique to Florida—but that's what I'm watching there.
Hrefna (DHC)
More interesting signals:
* The constitutional amendment in Florida for abortion access (Amendment 4). If that comes in higher than around 60% then that's a _very_ strong signal for some of the other states given the importance of this issue for a lot of voters.
* A few commentators have pointed out that Osceola has a very dense Puerto Rican population. This could be a useful signal on Pennsylvania (which we won't have results from for a good bit, in all likelihood)
Hrefna (DHC)
Osceola went 56% to Joe Biden in 2020, though it has almost certainly gotten redder since then (given the 2022 results) and I don't know of any specific local polling this election, but basically it's definitely one to keep an eye on for both turnout and how blue it is.
Hrefna (DHC)
@dcdeejay I mean I'm not bullish on me getting a good night's sleep but that's just me on any given night, having nothing to do with the election :p
But yes, fingers crossed.
DC Deejay
@hrefna Until I see evidence to the contrary, I am bullish on you getting a good nights sleep. We might find out tonight that common sense is more common than we feared.
However...I do have a decent amount of beer and vodka handy in case my optimism is misplaced.
Hrefna (DHC)
Another one I'm going to watch closely: Iowa's results. Iowa won't start until 2100 ET, but it generally counts quickly.
Selzer _does_ know her game and is _very_ good. She may still be making some errant assumptions in there, certainly, and it will be interesting to see if her bets play out… but if they do then this is going to go very, very badly for Trump.
Hrefna (DHC)
Selzer does _not_ herd, is _not_ afraid to go against other pollsters, and has a _very_ good track record even in elections where other pollsters were famously off. To some extent that is always luck and to some extent that is overblown, but there's no doubt that she's very good.
So her shocking result may just be an outlier, it may be an errant assumption, but _if_ her assumptions play true then that would be a very good sign for even us as a country.
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