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Selzer does _not_ herd, is _not_ afraid to go against other pollsters, and has a _very_ good track record even in elections where other pollsters were famously off. To some extent that is always luck and to some extent that is overblown, but there's no doubt that she's very good.

So her shocking result may just be an outlier, it may be an errant assumption, but _if_ her assumptions play true then that would be a very good sign for even us as a country.

#politics