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   Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:10:21 JST Evan Prodromou

   Thanks to everyone who answered. I know that giving voting preferences in a public poll is a little hazardous, and I appreciate your candour.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:11:03 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I'm still not sure. I vote in California, where Harris leads something like 57% to 35% in the most recent polls. Unless something goes wildly amiss, a vote for a third party candidate who supports ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon would be a safe vote that would not throw the election to Trump.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:11:39 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     However, I don't know if it sends any kind of message whatsoever. I feel dishonest casting a vote for a person who is not my preference.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:15:23 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I feel like the movement to pressure the Democratic candidate to be more explicit about ending the war has been the only structural pressure available in the last year.

     The US has vetoed resolutions to come to a ceasefire in the UN Security Council. The US and Israel have considered the decisions of the UN General Assembly non-binding, and the requirements of the Internation Court of Justice as moot since Israel is supposedly already in compliance. Neither country is a member of the ICC.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:16:32 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     Israelis aren't having an election and might re-elect the Netanyahu government, with or without its Kahanist partners, anyway.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:19:42 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, the narrow margin in battleground states like Michigan, where Arab Americans are a non-neglible percentage of the population, has been one of the few points of direct pressure available.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:23:27 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I should be clear; I am not in the least bit interested in your advice unless you are an Arab American and note that in your reply. I will block any and all condescending bullshit.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:34:58 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     This election cycle has been a game of chicken between the campaign and the Arab American community and the wider peace movement.

     Neither one wants Trump to win; both have been betting that the other side will swerve.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:38:14 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     It is probably too late for the Harris-Walz campaign to swerve. Early voting already started. A last-minute announcement of a different policy, unless it were truly radical, would probably not be enough to convince anyone.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:40:42 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, the question becomes, should the Arab American and peace faction swerve?

     On one side, there's the realpolitik of voting. If you say you're not going to vote for a candidate unless they change a policy, and they don't change it, you are weakening future negotiating positions if you vote for them anyway. Candidates will know that you don't stick with your threats.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:42:09 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     On the other hand, a second Trump presidency would be disastrous for everyone, including the Arab American community and all people in the Middle East.

     Tim Chambers repeated this.
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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:46:45 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I think there is a small but non-zero chance that the killing of Yahya Sinwar might open a window for a ceasefire before election day.

     I don't think it's wise for the Harris campaign to count on that.

     The Netanyahu government has been back channelling with the Trump campaign for months, and right wing Israeli politicians have been saying publicly that a Democratic victory is bad for Israel.

     I doubt that Netanyahu will bend over backwards to save her campaign.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:48:58 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     In terms of leadership in the Arab American community, the Uncommitted Movement has refused to endorse Harris. Rashida Tlaib has said that defeating Trump is important, but still has not endorsed Harris.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:49:56 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I think the rough strategy of the Harris campaign is to pick up whichever votes they can from Arab Americans, and then make up the rest of the gap in other ways.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:50:43 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     Thanks for reading all the way through.

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     𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒚 𝑺𝒏𝒊𝒑𝒆𝒔 🌱 (coreysnipes@fosstodon.org)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:51:42 JST 𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒚 𝑺𝒏𝒊𝒑𝒆𝒔 🌱

     in reply to

     @evan The recent This American Life podcast about that specific scenario is really good. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/843/a-little-bit-of-power

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 01:51:42 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • 𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒚 𝑺𝒏𝒊𝒑𝒆𝒔 🌱

     @coreysnipes thanks for the link!

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 05:33:01 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Robey ☠️

     @robey https://cosocial.ca/@evan/113346333360483399

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     Robey ☠️ (robey@messydesk.social)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 05:33:03 JST Robey ☠️

     in reply to

     @evan yeah, i wrote about this last week (and none of it makes me happy) :( https://messydesk.social/@robey/113313280433776883

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 11:16:29 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Outpatientzero 🍉 🇺🇦

     @Outpatientzero it's a metaphor, using a particularly deadly "game" as the model. I agree, it is not a fun game.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_%28game%29?wprov=sfla1

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     Outpatientzero 🍉 🇺🇦 (outpatientzero@mstdn.social)'s status on Tuesday, 22-Oct-2024 11:16:30 JST Outpatientzero 🍉 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     @evan your wording is obnoxious, it hasn't been a game for the Arab Americans whose families are being massacred by the US and its Israeli henchmen.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 23-Oct-2024 10:29:43 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • 𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒚 𝑺𝒏𝒊𝒑𝒆𝒔 🌱

     @coreysnipes this was such a good episode; thanks a lot.