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   Susan Kaye Quinn 🌱(she/her) (susankayequinn@wandering.shop)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Oct-2024 23:45:23 JST Susan Kaye Quinn 🌱(she/her)

   • kim_harding ✅
   • Urzl
   • CelloMom On Cars

   @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42

   "Black swan" is unforeseen & unforeseeable, hard to predict & rare.

   A catastrophically large storm like Milton hitting a populated city like Tampa is not only predictable (climate change), it is no longer rare (and will be more frequent). It's not "unforeseen"—climate scientists have predicted intensifying storms forever&they've ALSO been predicting/observing the "rapid intensification" factor that makes storms turn into monsters overnight

   • clacke likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     dangrsmind (dangrsmind@sfba.social)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Oct-2024 23:45:22 JST dangrsmind

     in reply to

     • kim_harding ✅
     • Urzl
     • CelloMom On Cars

     @susankayequinn @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42

     If you talk to Taleb or read his writing he says Black Swans are impossible to predict not just hard to predict.

     That is no method (computation) can be used to predict a Black Swan event.

     Obviously weather forecasting and climate forecasting exist, suggesting that climate related events cannot be Black Swans in general.

   • Embed this notice
     Susan Kaye Quinn 🌱(she/her) (susankayequinn@wandering.shop)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Oct-2024 23:45:22 JST Susan Kaye Quinn 🌱(she/her)

     in reply to

     • kim_harding ✅
     • dangrsmind
     • Urzl
     • CelloMom On Cars

     @dangrsmind @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42

     I think we *can* have climate-related Black Swan events because weather/climate forecasting is by no means perfect or able to predict everything that the climate weirding will throw at us — but we have to be careful not to call "unpredictable!" and "who could have seen this coming??" things that are literally being predicted

     clacke likes this.
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     Urzl (gooba42@mastodon.social)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Oct-2024 23:45:38 JST Urzl

     in reply to

     • kim_harding ✅
     • dangrsmind
     • CelloMom On Cars

     @susankayequinn @dangrsmind @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars We can 100% predict things will break. We can't reliably predict which things.

     clacke likes this.