Paul Cantrell
In this lovely heap of schadenfreude:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/04/trump-media-djt-stock
…there is one sentence that’s a perfect example of a minor data journalism thing that doesn’t seem to be part of any newsroom’s editorial guidelines, but •should• be, dang it.
1/
Paul Cantrell
Here’s the sentence
❝ While TMTG has not disclosed the size of its user base, the research firm Similarweb estimated that in March it had 7.7m visits – while X, formerly Twitter, had 6.1bn. ❞
At a quick glance, if you’re not paying close attention, it almost sounds like TMTG and X have about the same amount of visits. Did you trip you up for a moment? In fact, X has 792 times more.
2/
Paul Cantrell
Here is the data journalism rule I wish, wish, wish news source would follow:
⭐️ When comparing two quantities, they must be compared in like terms: ⭐️
1. Same units.
2. Same multiplier (thousand / million / billion).
3. Same denominator.
3/
Paul Cantrell
The sentence above fails the second criterion. It should read:
❝ While TMTG has not disclosed the size of its user base, the research firm Similarweb estimated that in March it had 7.7m visits – while X, formerly Twitter, had 6,100m. ❞
4/
Paul Cantrell
Same units (this on a hypothetical example):
❌ “The old truck weighs over 3 tons, whereas the new delivery cart weighs a mere 700 pounds.”
✅ “The old truck weighs 6000 pounds, whereas the new delivery cart weighs a mere 700.”
5/
Paul Cantrell
Same denominator is a subtle one (also a hypothetical example):
❌ “The House bill would cost $3.2 trillion over the next decade, whereas the Senate bill would cost $1.5 trillion in this budget cycle, to be adjusted after.”
Getting better:
🤔 “The House bill would cost $320 billion / year over the next decade, whereas the Senate bill would cost $750 billion / year over the next two years.”
But wait…
6/
Paul Cantrell
…do they •end• after 10 years vs 2 years? Or are we estimating an ongoing cost out to different time ranges?
✅ “The House bill would cost $320 billion / year, with the price fixed over the next decade. However, the Senate bill would cost $750 billion / year for the next two years, at which point Congress would negotiate a new cost.”
That’s better reporting (of this completely hypothetical thing).
7/
Paul Cantrell
Edward Tufte rightly says the fundamental act of data analysis is to make comparisons. Comparisons in unlike terms are hard to make.
This seems like a rule that news editors could take readily learn and apply. Whose door can I beat down with my obviously Brilliant and Very Important idea? Anybody have an inside track with the AP Style Guide?
(Will add examples to this thread as I find them.)
8/
Michael Dekker
@aubilenon If comparing feet to miles I would use miles and report feet as 0, 0.0, or <0.1 miles depending.
Paul Cantrell
@dekk @aubilenon
Either or both. The point is that you facilitate the readers making useful comparisons.
Jesse Morris
@inthehands That feels awkward in a lot of situations, particularly in extreme cases where keeping the same units means the numbers aren't how we think of things. For instance it's easier to think about how long 5 miles is than 26400 feet is. I think a good alternative is to include a ratio so you can't gloss over and conflate the units. “TMTG had 7.7 million visits. For comparison, X, formerly Twitter, had nearly 800 times that number - 6.1 billion”
Paul Cantrell
@dekk @aubilenon
(And if one number must take the form 0.00something to be in like terms with the other, then that seems like it might just help make the point at hand.)
Paul Cantrell
@argonaut
A classic. And yeah, at a certain point no amount of writing can compensate for innumeracy, but journalists can at least not throw obstacles in the path of readers trying to make quantitative judgments.
Victor Zambrano
@inthehands agreed! reminds me of this (unfortunately **even given the same units** Americans can get wildly confused):
https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/06/17/third-pound-burger-fractions/
Paul Cantrell
@donw
Related pet peeve: reporting differences when ratios are appropriate. If a stock is up 10 points, does that mean it doubled? Or is that a slight fluctuation? Depends on the stock!
Don Whiteside
@inthehands Shit, we can't even get the paper to stop reporting percentage changes without any basis. I can't count the number of times WaPo has published stories about a percentage increase in crime on the Metro without any indication of how many crimes there were before or after, much less a context of how many rides there are a day.
Up 43% in daily incidents! Ok.... from 20 crimes or 200,000? Compared to how many trips?
It boggles my mind that people leave j-school so innumerate.
Paul Cantrell
@donw @jwz
It’s “(Year-end projection)” that really clinches it
Don Whiteside
@inthehands hey look @jwz brought us an example. https://mastodon.social/@jwz/113092305920577266
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