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   Eaton (eaton@phire.place)'s status on Sunday, 21-Apr-2024 03:33:18 JST Eaton

   in reply to

   • mekka okereke :verified:

   @mekkaokereke A colleague asked me if I was really concerned about AI “replacing” some group, and I had to explain that I was predicting AI would *justify* organizations deskilling practices they regard as cost centers, and the correction would come too late for those about to be displaced.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 21-Apr-2024 03:33:20 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     Layoffs were announced a month and a half after my warning. 🔮🧙🏿♂️

     It doesn't matter if that company's decision making was questionable, or if you disagree with it. It also doesn't matter if you agree with me that a longer term, more tempered and realistic view on the upside of LLM and GenAI based systems is turning out to be the right one.

     If you find yourself on the wrong side of this dynamic in the short term, you could lose your job. Which in the US, can also mean healthcare and housing.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 21-Apr-2024 03:33:21 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     I gave a few friends that work at [Redacted SAAS company] my prediction that layoffs would be announced at their company soon. The layoffs would have a 60 - 90 day window. The layoffs would affect engineering. Regardless of current role, the layoff would not impact people with ML training or practical experience, especially if in DL/GANs/LLMs, ML infra, Data privacy or compliance. The engineers would be given time to learn the new skills, but they should start now.

     20%: 🤬You don't know that!

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 21-Apr-2024 03:33:22 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     I had friends at Microsoft that were cheering a few months ago when it seemed like MSFT almost mass hired all of the OpenAI ML engineers. I was like, "Um... why are you cheering? You haven't thought through what this would mean for everyone at Microsoft that *didn't* work at OpenAI. It's better for you all if the OpenAI people stay where they are, and they IPO."

     80%: 😬 Oh damn! You're right!

     20%: 🤬 You don't know that!

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 21-Apr-2024 03:33:23 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     It comes down to, "Over the next 24 months, would your employer rather have your services, or a few more Nvidia Blackwells?"

     And no, it doesn't matter if AI is frothy and over-hyped right now.

     My mentees usually split into two camps on hearing this framing. About 80% are like, "Damn! OK, now what do I do about it? What steps should I be taking?" About 20% get mad at me for saying this. "That's not true! You don't know that!"

     I've warned mentees in other companies about likely upcoming layoffs

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 21-Apr-2024 03:33:24 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/lay-off-workers-for-ai-investment-19408308.php

     I'm not going to speak specifically about my employer for obvious reasons, but I will say what I'm telling all of my mentees in tech right now.

     Losing your job to AI in 2024 doesn't look like what people think it looks like. AI will not replace your job function 100%. AI also will not make us all 20% more productive, allowing 20% of staff to be laid off.

     Your employer wants to control costs, but has a big AI bill. They choose between you vs more GPUs+ML folk+infra.