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1. Embed this notice
   lizstl13@mastodon.sdf.org's status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 05:34:55 JST lizstl13

   64,000 pregnancies from rape in 14 states with abortion bans.
   https://time.com/6588425/rape-pregnancy-us-abortion-bans/#:~:text=Rape%20resulted%20in%2064%2C565,Wednesday%20in%20medical%20journal%20JAMA.

   • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 05:36:54 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     @lizstl13

     To be clear, this study, as they explicitly state, in no way directly counted pregnancies. This is simply an estimate made by taking the number of rape events and multiplying it by the typical background fertility rate.

     So these are not actual numbers, simply an estimate. Here is the relevant text explaining this.

     More importantly what this study intentionally ignores is that many of these women likely went out of state to get abortions. Meaning the actual number of pregnancies resulting from rape in these states is almost certainly far lower than the numbers stated here. In fact 10% of the numbers explicitly occured in states where they would legally be allowed abortions.

     So yea these numbers are grossly inaccurate and they make it clear these are not “real” numbers.

     To estimate rape-related pregnancies, we multiplied the state-level estimate of vaginal rapes by the fraction likely to result in pregnancy (eMethods in Supplement 1)6 and then adjusted for the number of months between July 1, 2022, and January 1, 2024, that a total abortion ban was in effect. We used Stata, version 16.1 (StataCorp), to analyze the BJS survey data and Microsoft Excel for other calculations.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 05:41:14 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • Chris Turnbow

     @cturnbow

     I agree with you, 1 is too many.

     But check the actual study, these arent real numbers as the study itself states. This is just the rape count multiplied by expected fertility rate. Teh real numbers wouldnt be anywhere near this because 1) 10% of those numbers occur in states where they could legally get abortions 2) the other 90% could and probably did go out of state for abortions so the real number is likely a very small portion of the number stated.

     @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     Chris Turnbow (cturnbow@mastodon.world)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 05:41:15 JST Chris Turnbow

     in reply to

     @lizstl13

     MY GOD

     1 is too many, but 64k
     staggered horrified

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 05:52:54 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @FeralRobots

     You misunderstood (or i wasnt clear in how I conveyed what was in the study).. the 90% figure is from the study itself and represents the portion of the numbers stated (64K) that were in states where they couldnt get abortions. 10% of the 64K number were already known to be in states where getting an abortion for them would have been legal.

     So we already know that at a minimum 90%, but in reality some portion of them can go out of state. I have no idea what that is, but whatever it is we know these numbers are just made up esitmates and the real number is quite a bit smaller than this, at least 10% smaller for sure, but in reality probably much much smaller.

     The main point is, this number does not remotely represent the real number. It was a low-effort estimate made, as the study itself states.

     @cturnbow @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     FeralRobots (feralrobots@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 05:52:55 JST FeralRobots

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @lizstl13
     90% seems rather a high estimate of the number who "probably did," given that many of those women will be lower-income & might not be able to afford to travel, & some unknown percentage are residents of a state which might prosecute them for murder if they did.

   • Embed this notice
     FeralRobots (feralrobots@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 06:04:15 JST FeralRobots

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @lizstl13
     I have read yoru explanation & no, I did not misunderstand.
     Yes, at a minimum 90% of them can go out of state because interstate travel is lawful in the US. That fact loses some meaning when one's state can & does aggressively pursue information that would allow it to prosecute abortion-seekers for murder.
     *My* main point is you're doing a lot of work to cast doubt on that number, by making some suspiciously libertarian-sounding arguments about freedome of choice.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 06:04:15 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @FeralRobots

     Yes, at a minimum 90% of them can go out of state because interstate travel is lawful in the US. That fact loses some meaning when one’s state can & does aggressively pursue information that would allow it to prosecute abortion-seekers for murder.

     Agree, we know for a fact the number is at a minimum 10% to high and at most quite a bit more off.

     My main point is you’re doing a lot of work to cast doubt on that number, by making some suspiciously libertarian-sounding arguments about freedome of choice.

     The what now… it is an objective fact that some portion of that estimate will go out of state. How is an objectively true fact a “libertarian sounding argument”. What would be a libertarian sounding argument would be if i said “This isnt a civil rights injustice because people can just go out of state, problem solved”. Thats not what I said though. I said the numbers were wrong, I stated why its wrong, I was objectively correct. Thats not a “libertarian sounding argument” that is what we call “Data Science sounding argument”. Its the argument anyone objectively assessing the accuracy of the numbers would make, regardless of your political standing.

     @cturnbow @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 06:14:04 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @FeralRobots

     Thats not what happened.

     How is me agreeing with you about people getting hurt in large numbers, while stating the specific number is wildly off a "libertarian sounding argument"?

     Us agreeing that the actual numbers are still large and unacceptable is **not** at odds with pointing out a fictional and largely inflated number is fictional and largely inflated.

     Science means telling the truth and being accurate is your first priority, and you can do so while still admitting the underlying point. This is not at odds, and certainly not a "libertarian thing"

     @cturnbow @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     FeralRobots (feralrobots@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 06:14:05 JST FeralRobots

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @lizstl13
     What's a 'libertarian sounding argument' is you doubling down on the numbers when I point out that people are still gonna get hurt in large numbers.

     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     lizstl13@mastodon.sdf.org's status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 08:33:59 JST lizstl13

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     @freemo Seriously? Even one woman being slightly inconvenienced in order to terminate a pregnancy resulting from rape is one too many and too much inconvenience.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 08:33:59 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     @lizstl13

     Absolutely, I agree, even one is too many.

     So while this number is grossly inaccurate, a lie, and very much over inflated from the real numbers, and that is important to point out. Whatever hte real numbers actually are are, absolutely, too high, even if that number is 1.

     As youll notice I said nothing about if the real number is acceptable or not.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Saturday, 27-Jan-2024 08:36:53 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     @lizstl13

     Tip: see my bio. I state clearly I think abortions should be legal (With short windows), free, and tax paid. I also think pregnancy tests should be free.

     So clearly I do not like abortions being illegal. This isnt about that, its about the fact that I also dont like lies, even those lies are intending to support a POV I agree with.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 00:04:33 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @cturnbow

     Lol yea i guess your right, who cares if our numbers are correct, all that matters is if it makes us loom like we are right. My mistake.

     @FeralRobots @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     Chris Turnbow (cturnbow@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 00:04:35 JST Chris Turnbow

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • FeralRobots

     @freemo @FeralRobots @lizstl13

     What I heard was:

     64k suffered because of rape

     you: oh it's not as bad as it sounds

     does it surprise you to get some pushback on that

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 00:37:18 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @cturnbow

     No it doesnt miss the point... I stated and agreed with the point at the same time I correced the number as grossly inaccurate. The point was literally explicitly recognized.

     Please stop wasting my time trying to justify misinformation, correct your numbers, use accurate ones, and keep on making the point, like any honest person should.

     I'm done with you.

     @FeralRobots @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     Chris Turnbow (cturnbow@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 00:37:19 JST Chris Turnbow

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • FeralRobots

     @freemo @FeralRobots @lizstl13

     The number-crunching rather disingenuously misses the point, which is that here is a SEVERE problem; that problem desperately needs attention; when we start figuring out how to redress it, then is the time to start trying to be "precise" as to the exact scope of the problem.

     Your rebuttal, here, is bullshit.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 01:00:55 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     @cturnbow

     The pleasure is all mine.

     Next time try not to attack people who actually support your views simply for wanting accurate information, it will get you farther.

     @FeralRobots @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     Chris Turnbow (cturnbow@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 01:00:57 JST Chris Turnbow

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • FeralRobots

     @freemo @FeralRobots @lizstl13

     "I'm done with you"
     thank you

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 01:10:17 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @lizstl13

     I do know that, and point this out all the time.

     Your point?

     @cturnbow @FeralRobots

   • Embed this notice
     lizstl13@mastodon.sdf.org's status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 01:10:18 JST lizstl13

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @FeralRobots
     If you cared at all about women you would know that rape is a notoriously underreported crime.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 01:48:18 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @lizstl13

     Simple, because they literally say it in the study itself, which I went through all the trouble to quote.

     Oh wise one, please explain, in your infinite wisdom, how you know numbers prepared by professionals and peer reviewed, are wildly inaccurate.

     So far, all we’ve gotten from you are wild accusations.

     No, you also got an actual quote direct from the study backing up what I said.

     @cturnbow @FeralRobots

   • Embed this notice
     lizstl13@mastodon.sdf.org's status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 01:48:19 JST lizstl13

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @FeralRobots Oh wise one, please explain, in your infinite wisdom, how you know numbers prepared by professionals and peer reviewed, are wildly inaccurate. So far, all we’ve gotten from you are wild accusations.

   • Embed this notice
     lizstl13@mastodon.sdf.org's status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 02:15:14 JST lizstl13

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @FeralRobots You think you’re so smart, you figure it out.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 02:15:14 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @lizstl13

     Umm, I am a published Data Scientist. that is literally what I do for a living...

     @cturnbow @FeralRobots

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 04:05:25 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @FeralRobots

     And yet when i quote tooted the responses everyone who responded to that both understood my original message fine and generally agreed with me.

     Its almost like it has more to do with inherent biases in the two different audiences than lack of clarity in what I stated.

     I stated the numbers were incorrect, nothing more nothing less. If you cant understand that rather simple and straight forward message, and instead hear fantasies of things I never even suggested, thatson you.

     @cturnbow @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     FeralRobots (feralrobots@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 04:05:26 JST FeralRobots

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @lizstl13
     You're illustrating the underlying problem people here seem to have with your initial post: If we are to believe your follow-on posts, the initial one (& several following ones) aren't clearly expressing your views. Because several of us are not reading them the way that you say we should.

     When one decides that a large segment of your audience is misunderstanding one's intention, there's a good chance one's communicating it poorly.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 04:53:19 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • FeralRobots
     • Chris Turnbow

     @FeralRobots

     Ok. Thanks for the toxicity. Bang up job defending the cause you got going there.

     @cturnbow @lizstl13

   • Embed this notice
     FeralRobots (feralrobots@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 28-Jan-2024 04:53:20 JST FeralRobots

     in reply to

     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     • Chris Turnbow

     @freemo @cturnbow @lizstl13
     Did they indeed? Well then consider me TOLD!