Futurist Jim Carroll
One of the more interesting trends as we go into the climate crisis is that modern meteorology as we know it is coming to an end.
What's become evident with this winter is that they are all relying on a vast array of sophisticated weather models, but those weather models are really showing no accuracy anymore, particularly in the long-term. So any suggestions as to long-term weather trends are pretty inaccurate. this has pretty big implications going forward
Futurist Jim Carroll
@KrajciTom Nope. Just watching many forecasters online over the years, relying on various models, and watching the increasing velocity with which they back off of those models as the models go back on what they previously forecast. Over on the bird site - which I still use to track weather - it's actually kind of funny as you watch dozens of meterologists continually backtracking on previous predictions as the models don't match up to what they were previously suggesting.
Certainly nothing what it was like 10-15 years ago.
TomKrajci 🇺🇦 🏳️🌈 🏳️⚧️
Are there peer-reviewed scientific papers that you can point to that support this?
Thanks in advance.
OddOpinions5
@jimcarroll This might well be true, but I would like to see a link with some solid data to show that today's weather forecasts are less accurate cause as far as I know accuracy is mainly about computer power and computers, you might know, have been getting cheaper
Futurist Jim Carroll
@failedLyndonLaRouchite Faster computers / more power can also mean faster error / less reliability at speed.
But your point is taken and certainly, something I'll keep my eyes open.
All I know is that several of the professional forecasters I have followed for years now seem extremely frustrated with their inability to interpret what is going on. One fellow just can't figure out why the Southern Oscillation signal he has followed and reliably used for long term forecasting is now bouncing around like a yo-yo.
Futurist Jim Carroll
@BigD Where I live, cats must have abscesses behind their ears then.
BigD
@jimcarroll
We can always rely on the cat.
If it's washing behind it's ears, it's going to rain.
Futurist Jim Carroll
@failedLyndonLaRouchite CFS, 1 day apart. I know the CFS is generally unreliable past 10 days, particularly for 2m temp, but this is a pretty significant forecast change for the same date just 24 hours apart in a model run.
Supercomputers making forecast errors faster
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