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  1. Embed this notice
    Futurist Jim Carroll (jimcarroll@futurist.info)'s status on Thursday, 28-Dec-2023 23:51:58 JST Futurist Jim Carroll Futurist Jim Carroll

    One of the more interesting trends as we go into the climate crisis is that modern meteorology as we know it is coming to an end.

    What's become evident with this winter is that they are all relying on a vast array of sophisticated weather models, but those weather models are really showing no accuracy anymore, particularly in the long-term. So any suggestions as to long-term weather trends are pretty inaccurate. this has pretty big implications going forward

    In conversation Thursday, 28-Dec-2023 23:51:58 JST from futurist.info permalink

    Attachments


    1. https://media.futurist.info/media_attachments/files/111/658/605/571/709/458/original/95c924ce691a1e5d.jpeg
    • Embed this notice
      Futurist Jim Carroll (jimcarroll@futurist.info)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 02:37:23 JST Futurist Jim Carroll Futurist Jim Carroll
      in reply to
      • TomKrajci 🇺🇦 🏳️‍🌈 🏳️‍⚧️

      @KrajciTom Nope. Just watching many forecasters online over the years, relying on various models, and watching the increasing velocity with which they back off of those models as the models go back on what they previously forecast. Over on the bird site - which I still use to track weather - it's actually kind of funny as you watch dozens of meterologists continually backtracking on previous predictions as the models don't match up to what they were previously suggesting.

      Certainly nothing what it was like 10-15 years ago.

      In conversation Friday, 29-Dec-2023 02:37:23 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      TomKrajci 🇺🇦 🏳️‍🌈 🏳️‍⚧️ (krajcitom@universeodon.com)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 02:37:24 JST TomKrajci 🇺🇦 🏳️‍🌈 🏳️‍⚧️ TomKrajci 🇺🇦 🏳️‍🌈 🏳️‍⚧️
      in reply to

      @jimcarroll

      Are there peer-reviewed scientific papers that you can point to that support this?

      Thanks in advance.

      In conversation Friday, 29-Dec-2023 02:37:24 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      OddOpinions5 (failedlyndonlarouchite@mas.to)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:25:43 JST OddOpinions5 OddOpinions5
      in reply to

      @jimcarroll This might well be true, but I would like to see a link with some solid data to show that today's weather forecasts are less accurate cause as far as I know accuracy is mainly about computer power and computers, you might know, have been getting cheaper

      In conversation Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:25:43 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      Futurist Jim Carroll (jimcarroll@futurist.info)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:25:43 JST Futurist Jim Carroll Futurist Jim Carroll
      in reply to
      • OddOpinions5

      @failedLyndonLaRouchite Faster computers / more power can also mean faster error / less reliability at speed.

      But your point is taken and certainly, something I'll keep my eyes open.

      All I know is that several of the professional forecasters I have followed for years now seem extremely frustrated with their inability to interpret what is going on. One fellow just can't figure out why the Southern Oscillation signal he has followed and reliably used for long term forecasting is now bouncing around like a yo-yo.

      In conversation Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:25:43 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      Futurist Jim Carroll (jimcarroll@futurist.info)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:33:55 JST Futurist Jim Carroll Futurist Jim Carroll
      in reply to
      • BigD

      @BigD Where I live, cats must have abscesses behind their ears then.

      In conversation Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:33:55 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      BigD (bigd@mastodon.nz)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:33:57 JST BigD BigD
      in reply to

      @jimcarroll
      We can always rely on the cat.
      If it's washing behind it's ears, it's going to rain.

      In conversation Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:33:57 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      Futurist Jim Carroll (jimcarroll@futurist.info)'s status on Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:45:29 JST Futurist Jim Carroll Futurist Jim Carroll
      in reply to
      • OddOpinions5

      @failedLyndonLaRouchite CFS, 1 day apart. I know the CFS is generally unreliable past 10 days, particularly for 2m temp, but this is a pretty significant forecast change for the same date just 24 hours apart in a model run.

      Supercomputers making forecast errors faster

      In conversation Friday, 29-Dec-2023 06:45:29 JST permalink

      Attachments


      1. https://media.futurist.info/media_attachments/files/111/660/228/546/097/487/original/aa6d7cc23175465e.jpeg

      2. https://media.futurist.info/media_attachments/files/111/660/228/638/495/754/original/b2f4f408bdac928d.jpeg

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