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1. Embed this notice
   Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 00:53:35 JST Paul Cantrell

   Hey Minnesota: it’s time to mask up (and get your vax up to date, ffs).

   A lot of “COVID numbers surging!!!!!” posts cross my TL that I don’t boost because:

   1. they seem to be based on a transient fluctuation in wastewater data (which is very noisy),

   2. they seem to be based on a data processing error (more downthread), or

   3. I can’t see the putative surge in the data at all.

   This appears not to be one of those cases. A Dec wave is underway.

   https://umn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/fd0350c812334c5f9733ca5b6186db0d

   #MN #MSP #MinneMasto

   1/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 01:05:21 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     What am I seeing in that graph that makes me say this?

     COVID wastewater data is •wildly• noisy, which makes it hard to read. It’s full of huge week-to-week fluctuations that look utterly apocalyptic, and appear to mean…nothing.

     I really, really doubt, for example, that COVID cases in the entire state of MN magically spiked •and then receded• by a factor of ~5x over a period of ~2 weeks last May. Look at the yellow line. Whatever that’s showing, I doubt it’s disease trajectory.

     2/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 01:07:07 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     What I’m seeing that makes me say “This is a wave, not a data artifact” is the consistency of the larger curve shape. The consistency of the larger curve here is, as they say, not attributable to chance.

     Here’s that data source again: https://umn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/fd0350c812334c5f9733ca5b6186db0d

     This is just “eyeball data science” here, no publishable results — but sufficient to make some reasonable decisions about my own behavior.

     3/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 01:19:16 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     I seem to be almost alone in the world in thinking that I should change my behavior in response to changing COVID conditions. People mostly seem to be either (1) pretending COVID is over and/or can’t hurt them or anyone else, or (2) maintaining maximal hermetic isolation.

     Here’s the thing: the odds of a random person having COVID can vary 20x or more over time. That’s “driving with or without a seatbelt” kind of difference — just from time passing.

     4/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 01:27:32 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     AFAICT, changes over time in population COVID prevalence are of the same general magnitude of protection as •masking and vaccination•!

     Maximal isolation comes with costs. I like seeing my friends. I like being out in my community. But…long COVID is awful! I’m at risk! What to do?

     Simply changing the •timing• of what I do when is a significant layer of protection. And I find knowing that I won't •always• be at maximum is psychologically helpful when I am taking more stringent precautions.

     5/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 01:28:53 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     So: if you’re one of the people who’s willing to adjust their behavior based on changing conditions and new information, if you’re not pretending COVID is over but you’re not always at maximum, seems like now is a good time to dial up the caution.

     6/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 01:33:29 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     As promised, addendum about data processing errors:

     Here is a wonderful, excellent effort to aggregate national COVID wastewater numbers in a single site: https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID19-nationaltrend.html

     BUT! Beware that gray-shaded preliminary data region to the right of their graph. It regularly shows •ridiculous• spikes — a 20x increase in one week for MN at one point! — and those spikes keep disappearing when the data isn’t preliminary.

     That’s not disease. That’s some kind of data processing quirk.

     7/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 01:37:21 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     Paul’s advice, if you want it:

     •Do• use the CDC’s wastewater site for spotting trends at large scales of time and geography.

     Do •not• treat the gray region as good data (for now, anyway).

     Do •not• use that site to spot recent spikes in your area. Find your local wastewater data.

     –––

     Stay safe out there, everyone. Good luck to you — including the luck we make with our choices, and the luck we don’t.

     /end

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 02:03:08 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     • T. T. Perry

     @ttpphd
     THEM: [looking at COVID numbers] What is this shit?

     ME: Yes, correct

   • Embed this notice
     T. T. Perry (ttpphd@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 02:03:09 JST T. T. Perry

     in reply to

     @inthehands

     I'm a big poop truther.

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 02:20:16 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     • dimsumthinking

     @dimsumthinking Same.

   • Embed this notice
     dimsumthinking (dimsumthinking@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 02:20:18 JST dimsumthinking

     in reply to

     @inthehands there are those of us in between who take reasonable precautions (masking and limiting being around crowds indoors).

   • Embed this notice
     fulanigirl@blacktwitter.io's status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 02:21:30 JST fulanigirl

     in reply to

     @inthehands There is also the People's CDC, which tracks waste water and hospitalizations. You can search for your local area. https://peoplescdc.org/

   • Embed this notice
     Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 16-Dec-2023 02:21:35 JST Paul Cantrell

     in reply to

     • fulanigirl

     @fulanigirl Great resource!