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I seem to be almost alone in the world in thinking that I should change my behavior in response to changing COVID conditions. People mostly seem to be either (1) pretending COVID is over and/or can’t hurt them or anyone else, or (2) maintaining maximal hermetic isolation.

Here’s the thing: the odds of a random person having COVID can vary 20x or more over time. That’s “driving with or without a seatbelt” kind of difference — just from time passing.

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