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   Mina (mina@swiss-talk.net)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 19:30:14 JST Mina

   Some "bold" #future #technology #prediction⁣s for the next 50 years:

   There will be no permanently staffed lunar base.

   Nuclear fusion will not be an energy source worth reckoning.

   There will be no general artificial intelligence.

   Objections?

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 19:30:12 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     I beg to disagree on all counts:

     A lunar base ist vital for #Elmos planned colonization of #Mars.
     #Recently, there have been several endavors, to establish basis on the far side of the #Moon.

     Agreed, real use of #NuclearFusion has always been "always around the corner" for several decades. Just like #AI. Last year, there was a big break through re/ energy produced. 50 years is a very long time.

     #AGI will happen first, within this decades. IMO, the next evolutionary step hinges...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 19:34:04 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     ...on #embodiment, and several companies are working on that front. The very basic reason being 3-fold:

     1) IMO real-time and sensory data access is necessary for consciousness
     2) several (non-computer) scientists agree that a corporal, physical presence is a step in evolution.
     3) The moment an #AI is hooked up to sensory data world wide, it will be a tremendous amount of data very different from texts and videos. Once it learns to use it somewhere, all connected #AIs know this at once.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 19:34:31 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     #embodiment

     https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110318092360670290

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 19:43:24 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     ...of resources and the will of almost all powerful people around the global, political or business leaders.

     The only type of events that will prevent 2 of the 3 are the fallouts from the #ClimateCatastrophe

     1) extreme weather events that are now 90x more likely (depending on regions) than before andropogenic warming

     2) huge regions of the globe becoming uninhabitable, ensuing in unprecended, unimaginable streams of #ClimateRefugees (300 mn - 2 bn., depending on estimates).

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 19:43:25 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     I know, e.g. "Mondbasis Alpha 1" (Lunar Base Alpha 1,) the TV series.

     The resolve and the business oportunities lacked. If you look at #TESCREAL, you will see that all tech billionaire adherents to these cults are dead serious in completing the Mars mission.

     And #LLMs and #AI are just "the next big thing" globally in all lines of business. There's not only a figurative "arms race" between AI companies, but also b/w the US and China.

     What is different are the almost unlimited amounts..

   • Embed this notice
     Mina (mina@swiss-talk.net)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 19:43:26 JST Mina

     in reply to

     • HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     @HistoPol

     50 years is a long time, indeed.

     But 50 years ago was 1973. At this time, all three things seemed as close (or even closer) than now.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:02:48 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     (1/n)

     Yes, because IMO #embodiment is the key, from a sociologial and systems-dynamics perspective, and probably also from a computer-science one, too, as the main thrust comes from this field.

     The great thing is, that I think we will not have to wait that long for #AGI to happen. IMO, it will be the first of the three.

     IDK if you have read the beanchmark short novel "The Lifecycle of Software Objects"* by Ted Chiang, not only...

     *
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lifecycle_of_Software_Objects

   • Embed this notice
     Mina (mina@swiss-talk.net)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:02:49 JST Mina

     in reply to

     • HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     @HistoPol

     I know, you love the topic of "embodiment", and yet: Whilst I believe it to be a necessary step, and I also believe that there is a high probability that general artificial intelligence will some day be reached, I'm pretty sure, it won't happen that soon.

     Technology breakthroughs are becoming rarer and rarer every decade.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:03:39 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     (2/n)

     ...multiple #NebulaAwardwWinner, but also technical writer about #AI.

     He recently had a very interesting interview with #Stanford's sociology department about the subject of rearing an A(G)I.

     Object in the mirror are much closer than they appear. - No, seriously, technological development doesn't follow a linear path, as you know. Business strategist Michael Porter favored the creation of clusters or Diamonds, even on a national level.

     IMO the pieces for this to...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:03:58 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     (3/n)

     ...happen are all in place.

     I think there will be yet another "quantum leap" due to the 3 points I mentioned initially.

     And, as I like to add, there has been a big breakthrough in #QuantumComputing (QC) this year, too. - So far completely unrealited from #AI development. The combination of #LLM technologie and QC has yet the potential for another "quantum leap" in non-linear development.

     The only thing I cannot fathom at all, is how a breakthrough in...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:04:19 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     (4/n)

     ...one field will impact the other two:

     a) AGI will lead to huge breakthroughs in other fields (unless it were an evil one;)) - A lot is already happening in #biosciences. However, power and water consumption will rise tremendously, adverse affecting the #climatebreakdown

     b) Commercialization of #NuclearFusion would make AGI (apart from the H2O issue) manageable and cheaper in TOC. Also, it would provide a new source of energy for...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:05:41 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     (5/n)

     ...spacecraft, enabling higher speeds, further reaches, etc.

     c) A successful establishment of a #Martian colony by Musk would lead to an immense drain of resources, as the rich would have a "safe room" from climate breakdown.

     And there are probably more interdepencies, these are just from the top of my head.

     And just to be clear:
     this is *no* 1950's enthusiasm for technological advances. Except for #NuclearFusion, I think it would be best if the other two would not happen. //

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:07:10 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     Yes, that is the one. Great series, but off several decades, timewise.
     Alas? - IDK. ;)

   • Embed this notice
     Mina (mina@swiss-talk.net)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:07:11 JST Mina

     in reply to

     • HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     @HistoPol

     The series was called "Space 1999". I absolutely loved it!

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:45:50 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     @Mina

     100% on both counts.

     I've already seen news of positive ones in recent months, but they were not my focus.

   • Embed this notice
     Mina (mina@swiss-talk.net)'s status on Wednesday, 27-Sep-2023 20:45:52 JST Mina

     in reply to

     • HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     @HistoPol

     As you mentioned biosciences: This is actually an area where I see the potential for major breakthroughs.

     Also: Not necessarily ones which we'd like to see, but possibly of planet wide impact.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 28-Sep-2023 08:39:22 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     in reply to

     • Robyn :antifa:

     @necrosis

     Thank you, Robyn.

     @Mina

   • Embed this notice
     Robyn :antifa: (necrosis@chaos.social)'s status on Thursday, 28-Sep-2023 08:39:24 JST Robyn :antifa:

     in reply to

     • HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴

     @HistoPol
     here you can find more about AI in life science.

     https://www.systembiologie.de/lw_resource/datapool/systemfiles/elements/files/B6AA5AC509E249CBE0537E695E866DB2/live/document/PTJ-007_gesundhyte_13_2020_201217_WEB_300dpi_klein.pdf

     @Mina