@feld@tk >the rapid development in battery technology
The thing is: no. Battery technology has principally remained unchanged for almost 50 years. Lithium-[Polymer/Ion/C/Mn/NMC], NiCad, Lead-Antimony and all the other mainstays were developed decades ago. We just found better ways to pack them into smaller packages. Now all that free space to stuff more cells into has run out.
All the new technologies we keep hearing about are fusion technology -- perpetually 5 to 20 years away. Carbon nano-tubes, anyone?
t. Guy who contracted for Briggs&Stratton "Flexpack" battery technoogy & Tesla Energy.
> With “fuel-to-wheel” energy efficiency losses of 70% for both diesel and hydrogen compared to just 20% for electric, converting mining truck fleets to electric is a no-brainer.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin The first thing to realize is that people are lying. There is no serious attempt to move past diesel/gasoline today. BEVs are just a sideshow. When the world gets serious, it will be #hydrogen powered vehicles.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin People are lying about many things, including efficiency. It's worth noting that fuel cells are electrochemical systems just like batteries. A lot of these claims don't hold much water.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin Like I said, fuel cells are also electrochemical systems, just like batteries. Those claims don't hold much water.
That's the same story told about biofuels. It was just reusing "existing infrastructure." But it was unsustainable and not green at all. BEVs are the same story.
The only viable sources of hydrogen are gray hydrogen (methane and co2 byproducts) and blue hydrogen (from natural gas)
if we have the free energy to make green hydrogen we don't need hydrogen, we can just use the free energy instead of wasting some of it by converting it first
@feld@tk@akorenchkin And what about you? Do you own any BEV related stock, or perhaps own a BEV?
It ultimately doesn't matter what accusations you make. BEVs aren't sustainable and will die off due to their own limitations. Those are the facts of the matter. The rest is just noise.
It's under pressure (350 or 700 bar, depending on the design), but gasoline is not. And it only requires 4% concentration in the air for a static discharge from anything to ignite it.
Which means tiny leak == lots of hydrogen
you haven't even studied this. Please, just go away
@feld@tk@akorenchkin It's also in a carbon fiber shell. Cracking the shell is not easy.
There are no tiny leaks. They're tested to not leak. This all well known to people who actually build these things.
You are being a total hypocritic. You have no idea what you're talking about. You clearly have never done any studying except swallowing pro-BEV propaganda.
I can't wait for this future where there's a recall for all fuel cell cars by X brand because of a potential defect in the shell and everyone's freaking out because they're bombs on wheels and they can't be safely transported or stored for the recall service
this is a million times worse than a battery that just becomes a fireball you can't put out very easily
@feld@tk@akorenchkin They're already thousands of carbon fiber tanks being used all the time. There are no known issues according to the engineers that build them. You are just being a Luddite here.
A battery fire is actually the biggest danger among them all, mainly because it burns so much longer than anything. It also can't be put out with water. Again, more fearmongering from you and you are just repeating BEV propaganda.
that's only pressure cycles and isn't making any claims about the material's structural performance as it ages which is separate from pressurization/depressurization stressors
> And if you're going to talk about this subject, you should also be aware of the lifespan of li-ion batteries. At some point they are also a fire danger.
only if you don't use a BMS and your chemistry has a major flaw causing uncontrolled lithium dendrites to create a short! Which practically is not a problem with modern chemistries and BMS anymore.
If my car has a battery failure while I'm driving I'll have plenty of time to pull over and get out of the car before the fire consumes it.
If my car has a hydrogen fuel cell failure I'll likely be dead before knowing anything is going on
@feld@tk@akorenchkin It is designed for 15 years of life even under heavy usage. For most cars, they're pretty much guaranteed to last the lifespan of the car.
And if you're going to talk about this subject, you should also be aware of the lifespan of li-ion batteries. At some point they are also a fire danger.
There are only 15,000 hydrogen cars in the entire continental United States (California, specifically). There hasn't even been enough production of the cars to claim they've been "tested to a high degree". They have no track record. Zero.
Just stop bullshitting man. I get it, you like hydrogen. It feels like the future. It seems sci-fi. The best possible fuel source -- the most common element in the entire universe!
But boy are you gonna be disappointed in humanity's inability to harness it for energy outside some commercial applications.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin Great! Then admit there's also no problem with #hydrogen cars because they are also tested to a high degree! There are no longer such risks!
And again, there is minimal fire risk. Hydrogen floats away fast and poses a minimal fire risk even in a leak situation. You are safer in a hydrogen car than a gasoline car.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin That's well beyond a decent sample size. You're being as dishonest as anyone possibly can.
No, YOU STOP BULLSHITTING. You are a fucking Luddite by acting like this. Time to stop being a stooge of the BEV industry and realize there are many ideas out there. The BEV will not be the final destination of the car. You need to stop being permanently stuck in 2010.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin So in your world, the post-BEV world will be powered by something with even worse energy density...
I'll believe in synfuel powered ICE cars before that. And because #hydrogen is truly sustainable, it is guaranteed to play a role. People who doubt this are rejecting obvious real-world advancements while simultaneously imagining fantastical leaps in highly speculative technology. It is unlikely, and more than anything else just a sign of wishful thinking.
> while simultaneously imagining fantastical leaps in highly speculative technology
where are the fantastical leaps in green hydrogen production? You think there's gonna be money left in the pot to keep doing that research when the entire planet is on the precipice of a global economic recession the likes of which has never been experience before and especially fueled by climate change?
@feld@tk@akorenchkin You are simply not up to speed to the world right now. Green #hydrogen production already exists right now. It is rapidly coming down in price and billions are being poured into the technology. You are just getting a wake-up call that it is no longer 2010 anymore.
How are they making the hydrogen? You said green, so we're splitting water from the ocean I presume
What is powering this process? Nuclear? Wind? Solar? Hydro? Geothermal?
Nuclear would work if there was a plant nearby that needed to increase their base load so the hydrogen is just a byproduct. We need to build a lot of new nuclear anyway, so maybe this is something we will do. I'm not certain we have enough nuclear plants in ideal locations today. I'll have to look into this, but it being a common energy source due to excess generating capacity will be rare.
Wind works by the ocean and we are building some absolutely ridiculous turbines now (16MW just went up in China) but I wonder what fun we have in store with the trade winds being rather unreliable
Hydro is a blessing but we can't make that everywhere.
Geothermal has some potential in a few places. Still going to be an uncommon solution for a country/region
We probably want to be by the ocean, right? So the smartest solution is probably to use solar which we can put on land or even float on the sea.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin Electrolysis of water from green energy sources. It can be anything. It is literally the same marketing spiel as what BEVs promised: The energy source is now fully agnostic and can be anything.
And yes, one very smart idea seems to be seawater electrolysis. It can be done entirely off-shore:
That one is possibly being powered by wind (as seen in the photo). I've seen others with solar. They seem to be the most common plant design and we're gonna need a lot of this to power every car on the planet
Your biggest criticism about BEVs was the battery's rare earth minerals / metals which are terrible for the environment to mine
I have some bad news for you about the solar and wind farms that will be required to do this... the amount of energy required to manufacture solar and wind is more than the finished product ever produces across its entire lifespan. And they require a ton of the rare earth minerals / metals.
And you're just converting it to hydrogen which we lose energy on, and then lose again when converted for its final use...
This is literally worse than BEVs, I'm sorry.
This is why I'm confident hydrogen will be important in our energy mix, but it will be a specialty fuel for specialty applications where we cannot escape the needs of hydrocarbon energy density. Cars are not in this class.
The only way we make hydrogen a primary energy source is if we solve our 1 Cubic Mile of Oil per year problem and go oil (and natural gas! Usually left out of the equation) free.
That solution requires over $100T of nuclear investment in today's dollars.
The work required will take nearly 100 years by current estimates. The massive uranium mines we need to build won't be pretty either.
When we do that? I think we will have hydrogen cars. It would be the only responsible way.
I hope we get a real energy breakthrough in my lifetime.
Also why do you go through all this work to build an energy generation plant for hydrogen when your profit margins will be razor thin to be competitive with electricity and you could just make more money by just selling the raw wattage back to the grid?
It only makes sense to produce hydrogen with excess or free/trapped energy sources. This can't support a world economy. Oil runs the world because it's so damn cheap for its energy density
Lets try some complex things here, I know a little bit about gasses, tanks and pressure. What it means to do all these processes.
First off everything needs to be cleaned, not cleaned like you think but cleaned to the point it wont explode. That means removing all contaminants. Once you do that if you contaminate it for any reason you must reclean it.
Then you have the problem of you wind up with two gasses, oxygen and hydrogen. If you take that at face value you will be able to pressurize this slightly by electrolysis. This means that you need to take that hydrogen and oxygen and boost it to store it. So you go to boost it right? What is the multiplier of the equipment you are using? So you are compressing very little gas expending enormous amounts of energy. I know I do it for diving, its very wasteful but I do not care. I need 3000 PSI Oxygen.
Now assuming you boost all that and have used all this energy to make the hydogen and oxygen, then boost it and what? you tap a tank and its condemned?
DOT has rules for tanks for a reason as well.
As a complement I see it being viable to use hydrogen but it is not the solution. I have never seen one study that actually includes the energy required to boost gas. I think boosting its like 2kw per 20 cubic feet. It is pretty horrid ratio.
So resolve the boosting problem? It might be worth it. Assuming we have free energy from something like waste energy not being consumed. Then it is not waste, it is just using what would be not there.
Hello, I am car shopper. Should I buy the BEV which costs 14c per kWh and 80% energy efficiency or a hydrogen car whose fuel has to cost much more per kWh and less than 80% efficiency but a HUUUGE fuel tank?
@feld@tk@akorenchkin That's totally false. The main problem is that we curtail large portions of wind and solar. The problem is overproduction, not underproduction. That gives us free energy to make green #hydrogen.
Yes, excess energy like this exists because it's too expensive to build the transmission lines. I'm very familiar. It's growing in popularity to use this excess energy for bitcoin mining which actually makes money, unlike hydrogen.
I don't know why you'd want to make make any hydrogen off of freshwater when we are running out of it in many places
We can't just turn on 2000 nuclear reactors by 2035. It's not possible. Calling nuclear scalable is a lie. It's a damn good investment but it's too slow.
We may have some small fusion reactors coming soon. But there's no guarantee
@feld@tk@akorenchkin The amount of available energy from renewables is many orders of magnitude greater than global energy consumption. This is not a problem. Nuclear is also easily scalable because it needs very little fuel. Uranium + reprocessing completely solves that issue too.
The energy breakthrough you're looking for already has happened. You're just in denial about it.
It's a cubic mile of oil. Do you have any idea how much that is?
Just to meet the energy use of the world in 2010 we would have to build 92 million solar panels per year every year for 50 years. Just to wean ourselves off the 2010 level of energy usage. And it keeps going up.
Building these things to get us off the bad energy to the good energy requires we massively increase the bad energy usage to build the good energy generators. This is a very tough problem to solve.
@feld@tk@akorenchkin As the scale we're talking about, there will never be enough transmission lines, nor will there even be demand for it on the other end.
You need energy storage too, and #hydrogen is the ultimate form of it.
And you are forgetting your own words: Saltwater electrolysis is totally possible.