Notices by Bread and Circuses (breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social)

Why are political leaders so blatantly unwilling to make the hard choices needed to confront the existential threat of climate change?

One reason, of course, is that their main focus is simply to be re-elected. Voters don’t like hearing that they may be required to alter their lifestyles, and so politicians won’t tell them that, even if they know they should.

But another reason could be that these elected officials are getting some bad advice, especially from economists, whom they are far more likely to listen to than scientists...
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Scientists say severe climate change is now the greatest threat to humanity. Extreme weather is expected to upend lives and livelihoods, intensifying wildfires, and pushing ecosystems towards collapse as ocean heat waves savage coral reefs. The threats are far-reaching and widespread.

So what effect would you expect this to have on the economy in coming decades? It may surprise you, but most economic models predict climate change will just be a blip, with a minor impact on gross domestic product (GDP).

Heating the planet beyond 3℃ is extraordinarily dangerous. The last time Earth was that warm was three million years ago, when there was almost no ice and seas were 20 metres higher.

But economic models predict even this level of heat to have very mild impacts on global GDP per capita by century’s end. Most predict a hit of around 1% to 7%, while the most pessimistic modelling suggests GDP shrinking by 23%.

In these models, some countries are completely unaffected by climate change. Others even benefit. For most countries, the damage is small enough to be offset by technological growth.

This, it is becoming clear, is a failure of the modelling. To make these models, economists reach into the past to model damage from weather.

But severe climate change would be a global shock that is wholly outside our experience. Inevitably, models can’t come close to capturing the upheavals climate change could cause in markets fundamental to human life, such as agriculture.
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This article by Timothy Neal, a senior lecturer in Economics at the Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney, is truly frightening. The political, governmental, and economic systems currently in place, which control the world, are wholly incapable of responding to the threat we face.

FULL ESSAY -- https://theconversation.com/have-some-economists-severely-underestimated-the-financial-hit-from-climate-change-recent-evidence-suggests-yes-214579

#Politics #Economy #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

Want to hear some crazy radical ideas?

Check this out...
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❝ Capitalist society as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evil. Private capital tends to become concentrated in few hands, partly because of competition among the capitalists, and partly because technological development and the increasing division of labor encourage the formation of larger units of production at the expense of smaller ones.

The result of these developments is an oligarchy of private capital, the enormous power of which cannot be effectively checked even by a democratically organized political society. This is true since the members of legislative bodies are selected by political parties, largely financed or otherwise influenced by private capitalists who, for all practical purposes, separate the electorate from the legislature. The consequence is that the representatives of the people do not in fact sufficiently protect the interests of the underprivileged sections of the population.

Moreover, under existing conditions, private capitalists inevitably control, directly or indirectly, the main sources of information (press, radio, education). It is thus extremely difficult, and indeed in most cases quite impossible, for the individual citizen to come to objective conclusions and to make intelligent use of his political rights. ❞
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That's from 1949 (!) and it was written by...... wait for it...... Albert Einstein.

LEARN MORE -- https://archive.ph/jvlFD

ALTERNATE LINK -- https://glenhendrix50.medium.com/einstein-in-1949-predicted-how-and-why-society-would-go-sideways-d9ab65ed4882

#Politics #Capitalism

"You worry too much. Everything's going to be fine. Humans are the most adaptable species on the planet. We've always adapted before, and so of course we also can adapt to climate change."

Ever hear something like that?

Andrew Dessler (@andrewdessler), a climate scientist and Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M, offers a response to the optimistic "We'll adapt" crowd...
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“Humans have always adapted.”

If you’ve followed the climate debate, you’ve inevitably come across these soothing words, usually made by someone rich, often working for a think tank whose agenda is stopping action on climate change.

The argument taps into the romantic notion of human resilience, suggesting that adaptation is not just possible but a simple, cost-free solution to the climate catastrophe unfolding before us.

This view is overly optimistic. Adaptation, far from being an easy way out, is shaping up to be an absolute nightmare.

Here’s why.
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/adaptation-to-climate-change-will

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

Some of us who are very old will recall that Johnny Carson used to do a recurring bit on the Tonight Show where he would complain about how hot it had been that day. Then he'd wait for the audience to ask, in unison, "How hot was it?"

And he would give them a joke answer, like, "It was so hot that when I fell down on the pavement today I was badly burned and had to be taken to the hospital."

Well, no, not like that, because that's not funny. And in 2023, it's not even a joke. It's reality.

See -- https://www.azfamily.com/2023/07/24/phoenix-area-doctors-are-treating-spike-patients-burned-by-falling-ground/

Anyway, for more on the extreme heat levels we experienced this summer, let's turn to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)...
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Global surface temperatures have dramatically spiked since the start of June, with the past four months (June-September) breaking prior monthly records by a large margin.

This extreme global heat has made it virtually certain that 2023 will rank as the warmest year on record, and means that there is a chance it will emerge as the first year exceeding 1.5C above preindustrial levels.

In this figure [below], we show how the monthly temperature anomalies in 2023 to-date compare with those from prior years. The years are color coded from blue to red depending on what decade they occurred in, with 2023 highlighted in black.

This figure, perhaps more than any so far, emphasizes just how extreme global temperatures have been since June, with September being the most anomalous month so far out of an already extremely anomalous summer.
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-a-summer-of-extremes

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

Everyone here knows that Earth's atmosphere is polluted by greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. We also know our oceans are heating up at an alarming rate, fueling storms and floods and un-natural deadly disasters like we saw recently in Libya.

But that's not all. Because even our rivers are getting warmer, damaging biodiversity...
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Rivers are warming and losing oxygen faster than oceans, according to a Penn State-led study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study shows that of nearly 800 rivers, warming occurred in 87% and oxygen loss occurred in 70%.

"We know that climate change has led to warming and oxygen loss in oceans, but did not expect this to happen in flowing, shallow rivers," said Penn State Professor Li Li, corresponding author on the paper.

"If you think about it, life in water relies on temperature and dissolved oxygen, the lifeline for all aquatic organisms," said Li. "We know that coastal areas, like the Gulf of Mexico, often have dead zones in the summer. What this study shows us is this could happen in rivers as well, because some rivers will no longer sustain life like before."

She added that declining oxygen in rivers, or deoxygenation, also drives the emission of greenhouse gases and leads to the release of toxic metals. "This is a wake-up call."
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://phys.org/news/2023-09-rivers-rapidly-oxygen-aquatic-life.html

#Science #Environment #Pollution #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

We live in an upside down world.

Swedish authorities are threatening Greta Thunberg with a prison sentence — while the real criminals, the owners of the fossil fuel companies and the multinational corporations, are making 💵 millions of dollars 💵 every day by destroying the ecosphere that Greta Thunberg and others are trying to protect.

We live in an upside down world.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/greta-thunberg-could-face-jail

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #ClimateJustice #GretaThunberg

When climate scientists are alarmed by what they see — when they warn that we are facing a “worst-case scenario” and when they describe climate change impacts as “mind-blowing” — it’s time for all of us to be alarmed as well, and to urge our leaders to take immediate action.

"Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts"
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66724246

"Antarctica may have entered ‘new regime’ of low sea ice as global warming ramps up"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/13/antartica-global-warming-sea-ice-caps-regime-shift

These scientists know we are in a climate emergency. So why aren’t our so-called leaders doing anything about it?

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

The US war machine is the world's biggest single source of institutional carbon emissions.

See — https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/10/pentagon-climate-change-neta-crawford-book/

The military-industrial complex is closely allied with the fossil fuel industry in their immensely profitable fight to continue with 💵 Business As Usual 💵 for as long as possible.

See — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/10/infographic-us-military-presence-around-the-world-interactive

Our bloated US imperialism budget is eagerly supported by the leaders of both parties, urged on by free-spending lobbyists. This would be comically embarrassing if it wasn’t so tragic. 🤦♂️

#USA #Politics #War #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

You may say I’m a dreamer, but just imagine…

#Imagine #Peace #AntiWar
See -- https://worldbeyondwar.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/3militaryspending.pdf [PDF]
☮️

Let this sink in for a minute...

Of all the mammals on Earth, 96% are livestock and humans.

Only 4% are wild mammals.

Of all birds in the world, 70% are chickens and other poultry, just 30% are wild.

#Nature #Biodiversity #Environment

The Truth

#Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

Reporters at the Guardian invited scientists from around the world to comment on the extreme weather we are seeing in 2023, and what it means for our future...
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Scientists who responded said that the global heating seen to date is entirely in line with three decades of scientific predictions. Being proved right was cold comfort, they added, as their warnings had so far been largely in vain.

Increasingly severe weather impacts had also been long signposted by scientists, although the speed and intensity of the reality scared some. The off-the-charts sea temperatures and Antarctic sea ice loss were seen as the most shocking.

Some scientists warned that the tendency of climate models to underestimate extreme weather meant we were “flying partially blind” into a future that could be even more catastrophic than anticipated.

Many of the scientists were blunt about our future prospects. Prof Natalie Mahowald, of Cornell University, US, said: “What we are seeing this year is just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, of what we expect to happen.” Prof Malte Meinshausen, of the University of Melbourne, Australia, said: “If we do not halt global warming soon, then the extreme events we see this year will pale against the ones that are to come.”

Dr Rein Haarsma, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), said even if climate tipping points may not have been passed yet, they were getting closer: “The extremes we see now happening could induce tipping points such as the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and melting of the Antarctic ice sheets that would have devastating impacts. These tipping points are considered as high impact but low likelihood. But the recent extremes, and the poor understanding of the causes, mean I am not sure about the low likelihood.”

The scientists responding to the Guardian were absolutely clear on what must happen. “We need to stop burning fossil fuels,” said Dr Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London. “Now – not sometime when we’ve allowed companies to make all the money they possibly can.”

Others said the world was on “code red alert” to stop fossil fuel extraction and to fight to halt new exploration projects.

Dr Shaina Sadai, of the Union of Concerned Scientists in the US, said the dramatic growth of carbon emissions since 1990 was “largely due to the failure to rein in the fossil fuel industry and the multi-decade campaign of delay and disinformation they created”.

“Anyone in any way perpetuating the fossil fuel era, deforestation or any of the other drivers of climate change is firmly on the wrong side of history,” said Prof Emily Shuckburgh, of the University of Cambridge, UK.

Suruchi Bhadwal, of the Energy and Resources Institute, India, put it most simply: “In order to make the Earth habitable for future generations, we need to take drastic measures to reduce the concentrations of greenhouse gases.”

Vincent Ajayi, an associate professor at the Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria, said: “Governments must not merely make empty promises but must wholeheartedly commit to fulfilling their obligations to protect our planet’s future.”

Prof Paola Arias, at the University of Antioquia, Colombia, said the transition must be fair to all: “We need, above all, a just and equitable transition. A very small percentage of the human population is responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions.”
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/28/crazy-off-the-charts-records-has-humanity-finally-broken-the-climate

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

This is not planet Earth as we found it. The world we’ve known all our lives is vanishing in front of our eyes.

Human civilization was built upon the certainty of a stable, predictable climate allowing consistently reliable agriculture producing decade after decade of steady economic growth and allowing huge, thriving coastal cities.

But now we're seeing what happens when human industry pumps a *trillion* tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in only a few decades, when we warm the oceans to levels never seen before, and when we threaten the survival of everything that makes our lives possible.

The past is gone. Continue to hope and work for the best, but *prepare* for the worst.

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual #CO2 #Emissions

The annual wildfire season in Canada is coming to an end. Or, anyway, it *should* be by now.

But 2023 is unlike any other year. As of yesterday, there were more than 900 fires still burning, over half of them out of control.

Look at the area burned in the second graph below. The damage to wildlife is literally incalculable. Greenhouse gas emissions from all of these fires is off the charts.

Sure, some reply guy will tell you that forest fires are normal and natural and necessary. But not like this. What we’re seeing this year is an *unnatural* catastrophe caused by human industry — by the oil companies, their financiers, and the governments that support and subsidize them.

It’s a crime. It’s ecocide. And you know what? To them, it’s just Business As Usual.

#Canada #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

Check out this link to "The Climate Dictionary: An everyday guide to climate change" prepared by the United Nations Development Program.
https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/climate-dictionary-everyday-guide-climate-change

This can serve at least two purposes, I think. First, it's a useful guide for educators, activists, and communicators in choosing the right language to convey the meaning they intend. And second, it might work as a primer for those who simply want to learn the basics of climate change, explained in simple and direct terms.

In addition to English, the "Climate Dictionary" is also available in Spanish, French, Arabic, Russian, and Turkish.

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateJustice

"It’s time for global leaders to start telling the truth. We will not limit warming to 1.5°C. We will not limit warming to 2°C."

That's from climatologist Andrew Weaver, a professor at the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria in Canada.

He continues: "It’s all hands on deck now to prevent 3°C global warming — a level of warming that will wreak havoc worldwide."

This alarming statement comes as it is confirmed that Earth has just had its hottest three months on record.

FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/09/06/its-time-to-start-telling-the-truth-is-summers-record-heat-a-sign-of-climate-breakdown
CHART SOURCE -- https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/earth-had-hottest-three-month-period-record-unprecedented-sea-surface (title added by me)

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

Fifty years ago, if the right decisions had been made, today might look very different. We likely would not be talking about a "climate crisis" or a "climate emergency."

But the right decisions were not made. Instead, our capitalist rulers pushed ahead with their growth-at-any-cost mantra. And now we face certain disaster.

There are still choices to made, a struggle to be waged, in hopes of making the collapse of society slightly less costly for some people in some places. We must engage in that fight.

But suffering is inevitable, great suffering, both for humans and for the natural environment that our industries and our consumerism are in the process of destroying.

Here is an article by Indi Samarajiva that traces our history of bad decisions and that describes "What ‘Winning’ Against Climate Change Actually Looks Like." As he warns, you won't like it.

LINK -- https://archive.ph/jsAR7

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

Three groups — "Fridays for Future", "Fight Fossil Fuels", and "End Fossil Fuels USA" — are teaming up to stage mass climate protests and strikes all around the world starting ten days from now!

Here is part of their message...
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Our world is in crisis. Extreme weather caused by the climate emergency is wreaking havoc in our communities and ecosystems across the globe, causing social insecurity and harm to people.

The biggest cause of this crisis is fossil fuels — coal, oil, and gas.

The fossil fuel industry is driving a predatory and destructive economic system that harms people and the planet, fueling climate break down.

Fossil fuels are bad for the climate, for ecosystems, for our people, for our health, for our democracies, and for our economies.

The science is clear: what the world needs now is a rapid and just transition to an energy and economic system that is efficient, fair, and universal. A system based on clean energy sources and produced with respect for nature and the sovereign rights of Indigenous peoples.

This month, as world leaders discuss climate action at the United Nations in New York, people on every continent will join the largest-ever globally coordinated action and together WE WILL end fossil fuels.

The climate crisis is escalating but so is the global movement for climate justice. We need all hands on deck to win this fight.
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LEARN MORE --

✊ https://fightfossilfuels.net/

✊ https://fridaysforfutureusa.org/sept-15/

✊ https://www.endfossilfuels.us/

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #ClimateAction

Left to themselves, the fossil fuel industry will never stop polluting the planet, killing the biosphere, and raking in immense profits.

It's what they do. It's what capitalism demands.
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"Europe's Biggest Oil Company Quietly Shelves a Radical Plan to Shrink Its Carbon Footprint"

Six months after becoming the chief executive at Shell, Wael Sawan quietly ended the world’s biggest corporate plan to develop carbon offsets, the environmental projects designed to counteract the warming effects of CO2 emissions.

In an investor event in June, Sawan laid out an updated strategy for the European oil major that included cutting costs and doubling down on profit drivers like oil and gas. As important was what he omitted: any mention of the company’s prior commitment to spend up to $100 million a year to build a pipeline of carbon credits, part of the firm’s promise to zero out its emissions by 2050.

Those goals for the offsets program have been retired, the company confirmed, along with the plan to harvest a whopping 120 million carbon credits annually by the end of the decade from projects that sequester carbon with trees, grasses, or other natural resources, many of which Shell would develop itself.

That would have accounted for about 10% of the company’s emissions. It hasn’t made public any new targets for developing offsets or specified how it now plans to deliver on its future climate commitments.

The pullback reflects both Sawan’s renewed commitment to the oil-and-gas business that generates most of Shell’s profits, and an admission that the prior goals were simply unattainable.

Over the past two years, Shell barely made a dent. It spent $95 million, less than half of its initial budget, to build or invest in a portfolio of carbon projects from Western Africa to the Brazilian Amazon to Australian farmlands. They’ve generated few if any offsets.
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As you might expect, this article posted at Bloomberg is "fair and balanced," giving Shell equal time to extol its virtues. But the facts are simply damning.

FULL ARTICLE -- https://archive.ph/Q2nV6#selection-4735.0-4747.136

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

Pave paradise, put up a parking lot...