Conversation

Reporters at the Guardian invited scientists from around the world to comment on the extreme weather we are seeing in 2023, and what it means for our future...
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Scientists who responded said that the global heating seen to date is entirely in line with three decades of scientific predictions. Being proved right was cold comfort, they added, as their warnings had so far been largely in vain.

Increasingly severe weather impacts had also been long signposted by scientists, although the speed and intensity of the reality scared some. The off-the-charts sea temperatures and Antarctic sea ice loss were seen as the most shocking.

Some scientists warned that the tendency of climate models to underestimate extreme weather meant we were “flying partially blind” into a future that could be even more catastrophic than anticipated.

Many of the scientists were blunt about our future prospects. Prof Natalie Mahowald, of Cornell University, US, said: “What we are seeing this year is just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, of what we expect to happen.” Prof Malte Meinshausen, of the University of Melbourne, Australia, said: “If we do not halt global warming soon, then the extreme events we see this year will pale against the ones that are to come.”

Dr Rein Haarsma, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), said even if climate tipping points may not have been passed yet, they were getting closer: “The extremes we see now happening could induce tipping points such as the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and melting of the Antarctic ice sheets that would have devastating impacts. These tipping points are considered as high impact but low likelihood. But the recent extremes, and the poor understanding of the causes, mean I am not sure about the low likelihood.”

The scientists responding to the Guardian were absolutely clear on what must happen. “We need to stop burning fossil fuels,” said Dr Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London. “Now – not sometime when we’ve allowed companies to make all the money they possibly can.”

Others said the world was on “code red alert” to stop fossil fuel extraction and to fight to halt new exploration projects.

Dr Shaina Sadai, of the Union of Concerned Scientists in the US, said the dramatic growth of carbon emissions since 1990 was “largely due to the failure to rein in the fossil fuel industry and the multi-decade campaign of delay and disinformation they created”.

“Anyone in any way perpetuating the fossil fuel era, deforestation or any of the other drivers of climate change is firmly on the wrong side of history,” said Prof Emily Shuckburgh, of the University of Cambridge, UK.

Suruchi Bhadwal, of the Energy and Resources Institute, India, put it most simply: “In order to make the Earth habitable for future generations, we need to take drastic measures to reduce the concentrations of greenhouse gases.”

Vincent Ajayi, an associate professor at the Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria, said: “Governments must not merely make empty promises but must wholeheartedly commit to fulfilling their obligations to protect our planet’s future.”

Prof Paola Arias, at the University of Antioquia, Colombia, said the transition must be fair to all: “We need, above all, a just and equitable transition. A very small percentage of the human population is responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions.”
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/28/crazy-off-the-charts-records-has-humanity-finally-broken-the-climate

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