Notices by BakersRelay (bakerrl75@m.ai6yr.org)

#NCwx

From NC’s Weather Authority: 🌊 Coastal Flooding/Wind: I know all anyone wants to know about is snow, but we do have real concerns about the Coastal Flooding. I have a good following on the Outer Banks, and on top of the snow risk, there is potential for moderate to significant Coastal Flooding Saturday into Monday, especially during High Tides. Highway 12 south of Oregon Inlet could become impassable at times this weekend. Coastal Flooding is also likely in the downeast Carteret County. Minor to Moderate Soundside Flooding is also possible.

📌2-4FT is Coastal Flooding is possible in areas, especially South of Oregon Inlet on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. There will be some ocean overwash, especially in the prone areas of Ocracoke, Hatteras, Buxton, Avon, Rodanthe, Waves, Pea Island, and Oregon Inlet. There will be times when Highway 12 could flood during high tide on Pea Island, Buxton, and the North end of Ocracoke, making it impassable at times Saturday through Monday during high tides. 2-4FT is also possible in the Downeast Carteret Communities.

📌There will be some minor 1-3FT coastal flooding along the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, Neuse/Bay Rivers, and
Pamlico/Pungo Rvrs Saturday- Sunday AM.

💨: Wind Gusts will be strong on the Outer Banks thanks to being closer to the low, so 45-65MPH wind gusts are possible Saturday-Monday mainly. Loose outdoor objects (trash bins, signs, furniture, flags,) can become airborne and cause minor damage. High-profile vehicles (box trucks, RVs, trailers) can be difficult to control on bridges. There could be some scattered power outages from this. Blowing snow is also possible when snow is falling. Gusty winds of 25-40 are up in the mountains, 40-55MPH, isolated power outages are possible but not widespread.

😎The Bottom Line: For our Outer Banks folks, please prepare for moderate to significant coastal flooding (2-4 ft) from Saturday into Monday, especially south of Oregon Inlet, where ocean overwash could make Highway 12 impassable during high tides. We also expect high wind gusts of 45-65 MPH, which will create hazardous driving conditions and could cause scattered power outages along the coast, as well as very high surf and beach erosion. Soundside flooding of 1-3 ft is also possible for the Pamlico and Neuse basins, so residents should secure loose outdoor objects immediately. If you are on Hatteras or Ocracoke, plan for the possibility of being cut off by water during the high tide cycles this weekend. A Coastal Flood Warning in effect for most of the Outer Banks now.

-Ethan

#NCwx

From NC’s Weather Authority on FB: Weather 101: Hey everyone, I keep getting the same question it's going to rain? How is that bad? Freezing Rain is quite bad and notoriously very hard to forecast.

Why? 🧊 FREEZING RAIN: This is the most dangerous setup. It happens when there is a deep/thick warm layer aloft, but a very thin slice of cold air at the surface. The snowflake falls into a huge layer of warm air and melts completely into rain. It falls as rain until the very last second. The cold layer at the ground is too shallow to refreeze it in the air. Then it freezes on everything, creating an icy glaze like the one on a donut 🍩.

Standard utility poles are roughly 300 feet apart. Here is what freezing rain adds to just one span of wire between two poles:
1/2 Inch of Ice: Adds roughly 500 lbs of extra weight. So that's why power outages add up quickly.
The 30x Rule: A coating of ice can increase the weight of a tree branch by 30 times its natural weight.
The Breaking Point:
0.25 inches: Weak branches and dead limbs start snapping
0.50 inches: Healthy branches start breaking. Pine trees (which hold more ice due to needles) start failing significantly.
1.00 inch: Entire trees can uproot because the ground is soft/wet, and the tree is now top-heavy with thousands of pounds of ice.

-Freezing rain is a mess and creates terrible driving conditions with even small amounts; higher amounts can cause power outages/ infrastructure problems and trees to fall. As you approach more than about .25 of an inch, you start seeing Ice Storm, and this results in numerous power outages. As you move towards .50 to .75 of an inch of ice, you see widespread power outages, and some are long-lasting. There is potential for significant Freezing Rain across parts of Central and Western North Carolina this weekend.

Significant to Major Ice is expected across a good portion of the state. Here's my latest foercast. As of 4PM, only ice change is I added a significant ice zone up the mountains into just east of the high country and parts of the foothills. Typcially these areas historically get hit hard, models aren’t as aggressive but I think they will get up to .50" of ice at least.

The data continues to suggest significant ice accrual, and if these trends hold, we are facing a significant impacts in the areas with the highest ice.
-The Significant Ice Likely Zone (0.40" – 0.65”): Where: Stretching from Transylvania County east through Charlotte, up into the Raleigh Metro, and points North and a little east along the I-85 corridor. (HATCHED AREA ON IMAGE 1)The area where I think the highest potential for more than .65” ice accrual is highest is Southern Macon County, parts of Jackson County, mainly south of Sylvia, Transylvania County, Henderson County, and Polk County. These areas have a greater concern for more ice upwards of .75”, crippling ice if that happens.
Power: We are crossing the tipping point here. The weight of this ice is enough to snap lines and break cross-arms on utility poles. You need to expect scattered to numerous power outages. In the hardest-hit spots, prepare for lights to be out for days, not hours.
Trees: Significant limb breakage and tree damage is possible in the highest ice.
Travel: It goes without saying—travel will be a mess. (Note: We are still watching for small shifts in the track that could wobble this zone north or south over the next 24 hours.)

📌(0.20" – 0.40") This morning I expanded this to include more of the mountains and high country (parts are in the .40/.65" area now) upon reviewing data, which also extends into parts of Eastern NC, basically along I-95. The higher totals in this section willextend across the Piedmont and mountains. You will see hazardous travel and likely some scattered to even numerous power outages west in the Piedmont and mountains, where some wind is expected too, especially where totals lean toward the higher end of this range
The "Glaze" Zone: A light glaze is possible. While this will certainly cause slick spots and travel impacts, widespread power issues are generally not expected here, though isolated outages are always possible but remain a low threat. This runs along parts of Eastern NC for Sunday morning generally.

-Ethan

#VAwx

From NWS Wakefield on FB: Details are becoming clearer the closer we get to this weekend's storm. It looks like the highest snow totals will be across our northern counties. 6-10” of snow and sleet is possible across northern portions of the area, with 2-5” in southern VA, and 1-3” in NE NC. 1-3” of these totals could be mainly sleet, especially in the Piedmont, Central VA, and MD Eastern Shore.

@bud_t Good morning! I’m supposed to get 13+ inches of snow Saturday. I think it belongs to you. Wanna come get it?

@czarbucks @firefly @AE4WX @amyedge @ai6yr @Jennifer @lckrohjr Good Morning! Took a bit to get in gear this morning but coffee now in hand, cats fed and settling in for morning naps, and critters fed. It’s just cold this morning so hope everyone is bundled up!

Aurora capture was a bust last night as enough clouds moved in to obscure viewing. Did get a couple of great night sky pictures which encourages me to get out and take advantage of the winter darkness.

My first all day MLK Day on Mastodon was amazing, and I listened to many of Dr. Kings speeches and a lot of memories from old folk like me. I think I’ll do this again next year.

Eyes on a potential snow drop this weekend, so I’ll do a quick check on lantern batteries, tea lights, and snow melt. That of course means nothing of note will happen…

Have a good Tuesday folks!

@firefly @Jennifer @AE4WX @czarbucks @amyedge @ai6yr @lckrohjr Hmm… had shingles Vax planned for this Friday. Am going to push it until next Friday. I do not want to be feeling icky this weekend with a possible Ice Storm inbound.

#TheGremlinZoo #DOJ #Peacemakers

From CBS News.com: As protests build in Minneapolis and Portland, Justice Department has scrapped its "Peacemakers" office

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/justice-department-peacemakers-office-scrapped/

#TheGremlinZoo #HHS

From WTOP News.com: Pediatrics group sues HHS for cutting funds for children’s health programs

https://wtop.com/national/2025/12/pediatrics-group-sues-hhs-for-cutting-funds-for-childrens-health-programs/

#CAwx #AtmosphericRiver

From The Mercury News Bay Area: Flash flood warning for Alameda and Contra Costa counties Thursday morning triggered by persistent rainfall

https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/12/25/flash-flood-warning-for-alameda-and-contra-costa-counties-thursday-morning-triggered-by-persistent-rainfall/amp/

#CAwx #AtmosphericRiver

From City of Malibu Government on FB: UPDATE 12/24, 12 PM
The National Weather Service has extended the Flash Flood Warning until 6 PM today for areas including Malibu.

Heavy rain may cause flash flooding, debris flows, and mudslides, especially in canyons, low-lying areas, and recent burn areas.

Safety Tips (NWS):

Move to higher ground.

Avoid travel unless necessary

Never drive through flooded roadways; turn around, don’t drown

Stay away from creeks, rivers, storm drains, and flood-prone areas

Be alert for rapidly rising water, falling rocks, and debris

If told to evacuate, do so immediately

Stay tuned to official weather alerts and local updates

City crews continue monitoring conditions. Please use caution and check on neighbors who may need assistance.

For more info: https://www.weather.gov/lox/

#GunViolence #BrownUniversity

From CNN.com: Person of interest in Brown University shooting served in Army, worked at Arlington National Cemetery

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/us/benjamin-erickson-brown-university-shooting

#WAwx #Flooding

From Governor Bob Ferguson on FB: Stranded but steady: Operator keeps Carnation Treatment Plant running during atmospheric River

https://kingcountywtd.com/2025/12/12/stranded-but-steady-operator-keeps-carnation-treatment-plant-running-during-atmospheric-river/?fbclid=IwZnRzaAOp6KdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAo2NjI4NTY4Mzc5AAEe3_XUWJPO0rp-KWpU2hzwJ_n1p5u3G9VdT8BDoP0_UlS_7iTyf-8Rj1KBXuE_aem_8Zy7bdWzfwMKvQfqLVU0cA

#WAwx #Flooding

From ABC News.com: 'Historic flooding' in Washington state could force 100,000 people to evacuate

https://www.aol.com/articles/record-flooding-possible-pacific-northwest-144011552.html

#IHaveAStory

From CBS News.com: After ICE arrested his mom, 18-year-old citizen worries he could be next while caring for younger sister

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/after-ice-arrested-his-mom-18-year-old-citizen-now-caring-for-his-sister-worries-he-could-be-next/

@ai6yr No body got their COVID or MMR vaccines prior to the holiday travels?

#ICE

From AP News.com: Secretive Border Patrol program is detaining US citizens for ‘suspicious’ travel

https://apnews.com/video/secretive-border-patrol-program-is-detaining-us-citizens-for-suspicious-travel-e9a5b18d7861429f8d928b9cc7d91bd7

#IHaveAStory

From CBS News.com: Maryland mother shares message after her deportation to Vietnam: "My heart aches"

https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-mother-melissa-tran-deported-vietnam-hagerstown/

#TheGremlinZoo #AI #USPol

From AP News.com: What to know about Trump's draft proposal to curtail state AI regulations

https://apnews.com/article/trump-executive-order-artificial-intelligence-ai-regulation-646de06404ba543dd7244d225fb27250

#TheGremlinZoo #TransportationDepartment

From CBS News.com: Transportation Department urges "dressing with respect" on flights. Will it improve air travel?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transportation-department-air-travel-civility-golden-age-sean-duffy/

#PBS #NPR

From NPR.org: Court settlement calls for NPR to get $36M in government funds to operate US public radio system

https://wtop.com/national/2025/11/court-settlement-calls-for-npr-to-get-36m-in-government-funds-to-operate-us-public-radio-system/