Notices by Futurist Jim Carroll (jimcarroll@futurist.info)

AITA?

Embrace and escape!

I've never had more fun writing my 41st and 42nd books! I tackle what I've seen in 30 years of examining innovation success and innovation failure, and have wrapped them into two concise overviews that go hand in hand.

Today, I'm getting images together for Escaping Mediocrity, arriving by May 15, while watching sales for Embracing Mediocrity, which is already in print.

Two books. One powerful message!

Get yours - learn more!

**#EmbraciongMediocrity** **#EscapingMediocrity** **#JimCarroll** **#Futurist** **#PersonalDevelopment** **#CareerGrowth** **#SelfHelp** **#BusinessBooks** **#MindsetShift** **#ProfessionalGrowth** **#LeadershipDevelopment** **#BreakthroughResults** **#SelfImprovement** **#Motivation** **#Success** **#CareerAdvice** **#PersonalGrowth** **#MediocritySeries** **#BookRelease** **#ProductivityTips**

https://mediocrity.jimcarroll.com

"Decision fatigue? Simplicity overcomes complexity every time" - Futurist Jim Carroll

A shoutout to Christa Haberstock for giving me the idea!

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Each month, I do an email blast to the various speaker bureau folks who have booked me through the years - about 260 people at this point,.

With that being the case, I've come to keep my message - a key way of keeping them up to date - shorter and to the point..

Here's what I sent yesterday. It speaks for itself with powerful guidance that can apply to just about anything.

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Decision fatigue is real. Breaking through is what matters!

Let's talk about why clients can't make up their minds in 2025!

Noticed clients taking forever to pick speakers lately? It's not you - it's decision fatigue!

I remember seeing a post somewhere on LinkedIn recently that something like 1.5 million people have either 'speaker' or 'keynote speaker' in their profile - no wonder clients are feeling overwhelmed.

This is making it difficult for them to select a speaker - and this is combined with the decision fatigue they are already facing.

Decision Fatigue? What's that?

In my 30+ years of speaking about leadership and innovation, I've often shared insights with audiences about the issues people have with making decisions. Here's what I know - simply put, our brains get tired after making too many choices. Each decision uses mental energy, and eventually, we run out of gas. When we run out of gas, we do the easiest thing possible - we stop making decisions.

Recent studies highlight just how real this problem is:

One study suggests we spend 50% of our working day making decisions

- We make 100+ significant decisions daily, plus thousands of micro-choices (emails, word choices, etc.)

- Decision quality drops by up to 40% after making multiple back-to-back decisions

- 73% of professionals report postponing important decisions due to mental fatigue

I've also noticed that decision paralysis becomes significantly worse during periods of volatility.

Back in 2002, I identified what was happening in the meetings and events industry as what I called "aggressive indecision" - people simply refusing to commit to anything due to overwhelming uncertainty.

I think that's where we are at right now.

By the time they're looking at your speaker options, they've already made too many decisions that day. Their brain is basically saying, "Not another choice!"

No wonder they ghost you after initially seeming excited!

They make the decision easy by deferring it, avoiding it, and not thinking about it.

Here's how to make it easier for mentally drained clients - make it easy for them to make decisions.

#Decision #Fatigue #Simplicity #Choices #Focus #Clarity #Overwhelm #Efficiency #Leadership #Action

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-decision-fatigue-simplicity-overcomes-complexity-every-time/

"Bumper sticker explanations of complicated issues are usually wildly inaccurate!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

There are a lot of people with instant insight on everything and yet who are experts at nothing.

Isn't that the way it goes?

If you spend any time talking with anyone today, it would seem that they are suddenly experts on tariffs and their impact on regional, national, and local economies. Everyone is offering up concise statements of what it means, where it will go, and what will happen. I prefer to listen to global trade experts and economists - folks who are trained in this stuff. In the same way, I'd rather listen to a PhD in vaccine medicine than some quack who gets his information off an obscure conspiracy theorist's Website.

That's why ideas like "trickle-down economics will work" statements are always such a false promise. The notion that tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations automatically benefit everyone has been repeatedly challenged by economic research showing limited "trickle-down" effects and increasing wealth inequality. And yet the bumper sticker wisdom lives on.

Why does this happen?

"Bumper sticker" phrases - catchy one-liners about complex issues - sacrifice accuracy for memorability. They fail to address the multiple perspectives, historical context, systemic factors, competing values, and technical details that complex problems involve. They often aren't based on much more than opinions.

The fact is, oversimplifying leads to:

- Overlooking cause-effect complexities

- Creating false either/or scenarios

- Substituting emotion for analysis

- Reinforcing existing beliefs

Good leaders know when simplicity works and when issues demand a deeper explanation. They engage with complexity and guide others through it thoughtfully. They also know that while bumper-sticker wisdom can be popular, it causes more problems than good.

Ironically, my statement about bumper stickers is itself a bumper sticker - though one that points out its limitations!

Perhaps we need simple reminders to look beyond simplicity.
**#Complexity** **#Nuance** **#Understanding** **#Context** **#Depth** **#Oversimplification** **#Analysis** **#Thinking** **#Perspective** **#Knowledge**

Futurist Jim Carroll is willing to admit that perhaps many of his Daily Inspiration posts contain bumper-sticker wisdom. He lives and owns the contradiction.

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-bumper-sticker-explanations-of-complicated-issues-are-usually-wildly-inaccurate/

@david_chisnall

Ya, which is why we never stick Canadian flags on our luggage when we are travelling.

"The future is an attitude!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

It's Monday morning. What are you waiting for?

With that being the case, why not have an image where I'm staring up into a teleportation portal? It's my future, and I get to imagine it!

You should do the same thing.

If you're feeling too comfortable right now with the future, you probably aren't thinking hard enough about the trends that will reshape your reality. You need to be scared; you need to be nervous; you need to have big ideas; you need to stretch your imagination; you need to be prepared to accept that everything is going to change—and most importantly, you need to be ready for action. After all, there might one day be teleportation portals - not in our life, but sometime!

That's why you need to think about this simple fact - the future isn't just. something you Watch - it's something you embody. The future is an attitude. While everyone else is busy tracking trends and technologies, they're missing something crucial: it's not just about knowing what's coming—it's about how you approach it, internalize it, and act on it.

The most successful people don't just observe the future; they have a mindset that embraces it and takes immediate steps to make it real. Anyone can read about emerging trends, but those who truly thrive in tomorrow's world cultivate specific attitudes that transform challenges into opportunities—and then act on them without hesitation. With that being the case, think about the mindsets that will help you stay ahead.

And most important - do something today - right now - Monday morning - that will get you moving! Here are 10 ideas you should think about right now - and 10 things you should commit to doing THIS MORNING.

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Later this morning, Futurist Jim Carroll will have his winter tires swapped out. He’s preparing for a future that involves warmer weather.

#Future #Attitude #Action #Growth #Innovation #Opportunity #Mindset #Change #Proactive #transformation

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-the-future-is-an-attitude/

"One of the nastiest countries on earth."

Um, you sure about that?

Every American needs to watch this, and think about what is going on.

#elbowsup #canada

"Compassion can outshine the chaos!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Every day, I start with my image and quote, and then write my post. Today, I started with this image and quote:

“Grant me the ability to avoid the stress, rage & anxiety over things I cannot control, the courage to change the things I can, & the wisdom to know the difference!”

Then I noticed that what I wrote about - leadership empathy - had nothing to do with the original quote! So I changed it! I still like this version of the Serenity Prayer though!

Anyways ... to my original point. Have you noticed that a lot of people seem to be asking one another, pretty regularly: "How are you doing with all this stuff?" I need not explain the "stuff" - suffice it to say, there's volatility, upheaval, uncertainty, disruption, polarization, confusion, destabilization, turmoil, chaos - all of which is quite dystopian.

Aside from providing you with a comprehensive list of disquieting nouns, the fact is a lot of people are feeling discomfort, but are also expressing concern about those around them. At least the ones who have a soul left within their inner core.

Look, I'm from the old school that believes that human kindness is an important personal trait - perhaps one of the most important. I also know that in this current male-machismo-driven world of rage and revenge, there are simply some folks who will never understand that. I don't have any expectations that folks like that follow my writings here.

But maybe the rest of us can work on it a bit more. After all, it matters. Lots of folks might have been having a rough day, and a little expression of empathy can go a long way.

How can we do that? Here are the key elements of what is known as 'leadership empathy', and how to practice them!
.... read the full post.

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Futurist Jim Carroll would like to hear how you are doing. He might be able to offer up a comforting thought or two.

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/compassion-can-outshine-the-chaos-futurist-jim-carroll/

"You can always find hope for the future by carefully examining the opportunities it is always showing you. (Just remember to always keep looking!)" - Futurist Jim Carroll

The most popular post on my Website has to do with the 'growth of knowledge.', from my 2023 trends series.

In it, I lay out the basic statistics and observations having to do with that trend - but also outline what it means. In simple terms:

"It used to be about what you know. Now it’s not only about what you know, but how fast you need to know it!"

I also make note of this observation:

"The volume of medical knowledge was doubling every 8 years before Covid; it’s now doubling every 78 days."

Fast forward - things are moving even faster still. No one in any career knows everything they need to know - our ability to get the right knowledge at the right time - what I call just-in-time knowledge - is one of the most important career skills need to continually develop and enhance.

With that thought in mind, I was taking a look at the current widespread destruction of the future all around us - science shutting down, valuable research programs being decimated, and careers and jobs being destroyed with reckless abandonment. There is a chainsaw being taken to the future, and its destructive damage is yet to be determined. In the context of such a crazy world, how do those of us who want to ensure we have hope for tomorrow continue to sustain that hope, feed it, and nurture it? By keeping an eye on the good things that are out there and that might somehow survive!

This brings me to how I am using my relentless study of the trends of tomorrow to sustain my hope for tomorrow, albeit while doing so in the era of the information flood. To do that, I'm turning to, of course, AI. Here's a good example: for years, I've subscribed to many different trend newsletters, each of which is carefully filtered and goes into a folder in my email account. I try to get to them when I can, but I often fall behind. One I track is Ground Truths by Eric Topol - it's a great, fairly regular update on important trends in healthcare science.
Searching for some hope for the future of medicine and healthcare the other day, I took a look and realized I had 194 long messages from him about these issues- far too many to read! Google Notebook LLM to the rescue! I took them all, worked them into a PDF, and 'fed it to the machine.,' With a few iterations, I got back the summary below - a nice, tidy, short, and concise overview of some of the key trends he has been talking about, and why this matters for our future.

Far easier to digest, scan, and read - and provide me a short, sharp shock of hope!

This brings me back to the main point of today's post - in the face of volatile turmoil, we need to feed and further our hope for the future.

How we do this doesn't matter - the mechanics are quite irreverent, but use the tools if you can. I am!

You can always find hope for the future by carefully examining the opportunities it is always showing you.

You just need to remember to always keep looking!

#Hope #Future #Innovation #Opportunity #Knowledge #Healthcare #Technology #AI #Science #Transformation

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-you-can-always-find-hope-for-the-future-by-carefully-examining-the-opportunities-it-is-always-showing-you/

"Are you a maestro of mediocrity, a virtuoso of the vague, a champion of the commonplace, a genius of the generic, an architect of the average, a titan of the trivial, a sovereign of the standard, or perhaps a wizard of the wonderfully ordinary?" - Futurist Jim Carroll

I'm having a lot of fun with my new book, and the initial reactions from the folks who have bought it have found it to be inspiring, albeit in a roundabout way! After all, it identifies the things we should NOT be doing to move forward, and yet, we can find many of those behaviors that we are guilty of.

One of my biggest thrills came when the technical product lead for the world's largest mobile-robotic fleet at Amazon - 750,000+ robots! - had a short post about the book.

I need YOU to buy the book though - you are reading my Daily Inspiration post every day, so why not move to the next step and offer up a little bit of support? You can do that right now via the book Website at
https://mediocrity.jimcarroll.com. Spend a moment to grab a copy, and then come back and learn a bit more about how you might use its anti-inspirational guidance - and bring a smile to my face!

With that in mind, I'm also thrilled to note that we've moved to the next stage of the follow-up companion sequel Escaping Mediocrity, and have just about finalized the text content. The next step is to generate the images and format the book; the cover is already complete and ready to go.

We might be about a month out from delivery.

The key to the Escaping Mediocrity book is figuring out how to use it, and that's why I note in the Foreword that it's a teambuilding book!
When I wrote it, my goal was to shine a light on the all too comfortable habits that secretly sabotage our potential. Once I started pulling it together, I realized that it would be perfect for team-building exercises at corporate events! After all, it can be used as a humorous tool to make what could be uncomfortable conversations both productive and enjoyable.

Think about it - by playfully examining mediocrity together, your team can develop stronger awareness and create practical strategies for excellence without pointing fingers.

Here are some thoughts on how to deploy Embracing Mediocrity within your team -- read the full post for more!

Remember, you can grab a copy of Embracing Mediocrity right now - just visit the main Website for the book - at https://mediocrity.jimcarroll.com

Bonus for Canadians - buy it directly from me, and not only will I scribble in your custom message and sign it - but you will know that you are supporting a Canadian printer! I have a wonderful fellow in Burlington, Ontario, who did a bulk print run for me!

I look forward to your order!

Futurist Jim Carroll believes that by it is by examining the mediocre behaviors that define us we can best figure out how to escape from them.

https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-are-you-a-maestro-of-mediocrity/

"You need a vision bigger than you've been told is possible!"  - Kat Abughazaleh 

That's her phrase, not mine! She's 26-year-old Kat bAbughazaleh, and she's running for Congress. In the middle of her announcement video, she stated: "You need a vision bigger than you've been told is possible!"
I'm always a sucker for a good inspirational phrase - and I can also spot the nascent signs of what might be a major trend early on. This might be one of those moments.

Look, I swear to god I'm not working to turn my daily post into a political journal, but the timing of this video yesterday was just too perfect in light of my post earlier that day about the need for the system to get 'youthanized.'

So what's this post about? It's about what might happen when the social media/influencer generation gets aggressively involved in politics. Later in the video, she said this: “I say it’s time to drop the excuses and grow a fucking spine," And then, "We're focused on meeting constituent needs with one simple rule: What if we didn't suck?"

Talk about message clarity!

Watch the video for yourself, and try and tell me that this might not be the early sign of something happening in US politics right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7OhclGO3CY

And since US politics has a huge impact on whether the future unfolds or not, well, it's in the territory of this daily post. Yesterday, I was listening to The Daily podcast from the New York Times, and one political expert said that the Democrats might be having their own Tea Party moment, what with the anger at aging politicians and all. Maybe this was the moment stuff was thrown in the harbor.

The video is blowing up on social media right now - and no wonder. What we might be seeing right now is the first of a sudden groundswell of today's 20 and 30-year-olds launching themselves into a system that has become geriatric by design

**#Vision** **#Youth** **#Politics** **#Change** **#Influence** **#Future** **#Generation** **#Disruption** **#Leadership** **#Momentum**

Original post:https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-you-need-a-vision-bigger-than-youve-been-told-is-possible/

*Youthanize now!”* – Futurist Jim Carroll

In Season 4, Episode 17 of the show The Office, the inept manager Michael spends a moment to explain why he wants to recruit young interns for the office - and says he wants to euthanize things (which means ending a person's life by a serum to end suffering from an incurable disease.). Since then, some have suggested that he was coining a new phrase, "Youthanize".

Let's run with it!

The world's in a bit of a mess. Some folks are hanging around too long. Have you noticed how the political leadership in the US seems to be getting, well... a bit long in the tooth? Some wonder if RBG and Joe had retired when they should have, things might have been different.

Let's look at the Senate, where the average age is pushing 65, but many are in their 80s and 90s! We've got the so-called Silent Generation and Baby Boomers dominating the scene, while Millennials—who represent a huge chunk of the population—barely have a seat at the table. And the fact is, this isn't just about numbers on a birth certificate; it's about who's making decisions about the future. So far, it's not going well, because these old folks don't seem to know how to battle back in this new era of fast-moving, social media-driven events. We're not at a Chuck-e-Cheese restaurant anymore.

Don't slam me for ageism - that's not my intent. Many of us will live longer, with minds as sharp as yesterday - but with wisdom, we should also know when to get out of the way.

I've spent my career watching how organizations evolve and adapt, and I can tell you this: for today's younger generations, constant change is like oxygen. They've grown up with technology transforming around them daily. They don't fear innovation—they expect it! Meanwhile, we're seeing concerning signs in the political leadership, from public "freezing episodes" to declining cognitive health, with a Pentagon study even flagging dementia among aging officials as a national security concern. (Um, ponder that for a moment. Like, ponder it. Are they trying to tell us something?)

Here's what fascinates me: industries that welcome young people as idea generators tend to have massive agility and a high "change quotient." But the current political system seems designed to keep them out! Between gerrymandering, polarization, and the incredible advantages of incumbency, we've created a system where someone who is 74 years old and battling terminal cancer—can still be chosen for leadership because, in his words, "I've never had my chance." Meanwhile, a younger person who has the fire-breathing dragon anger needed in these complex times - is shut out of that opportunity because she's 'too young'.

Does this sound like an organization positioned for future success? NOT!

#Youth #Innovation #Leadership #Change #Generations #Future #Adaptation #Perspective #Renewal #Progress

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-youthanize-now/

"Where the minds go, the future follows" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Let's talk about how once great nations lose their place in the global R&D background, and as a result, lose their future!

In 2009, I was the opening keynote speaker for the annual PMDA conference on innovation - with a talk on the 'hollowing out of corporate R&D." As noted on their site, "The Product Development and Management Association is a global community of professional members whose skills, expertise and experience power the most recognized and respected innovative companies in the world." The association membership includes key individuals involved in R&D for the 3M's, Duponts, Dow and other industrial powerhouses of the world.

They asked for a hard-hitting message on how the US was losing its position as the pre-eminent R&D 'factory' of the world, and I obliged. I took them on that tour, and wrote the blog post "The Hollowing Out of Corporate R&D." Essentially, I told the story of how the US was losing its dominance as other (mostly Asian) companies took the lead, as open source innovation took on new momentum, and small collaboration was beating 'big collaboration.'

Fast forward - we now have a nation that is turning its back on science, as it shutters entire R&D arms of government, as many begin to reject the essence of science itself, and as immigration and other policies begin to attack the individuals who undertake scientific research. This never ends well. Scientists will always pursue their work in the nations that welcome them, and which create an environment that is conducive to their slow, collaborative research.

History shows what happens when industrial or government policies decimate R&D.

The minds of science develop the future - the discoveries that are made fuel the innovations that are pursued which create the products that evolve. Keep in mind my key mantra for tomorrow: "Companies that do not yet exist will build products not yet conceived using materials not yet invented with methodologies not yet in existence with ideas yet to be imagined." That context provides the factory for the future, the jobs of tomorrow, and the possibilities for companies and nations to thrive. Thrive they won't when science is rejected.

In that context, how is global R&D science changing today compared to the trends I spoke about years ago? The "hollowing out" of traditional corporate R&D has accelerated, creating a more globally distributed innovation landscape where the U.S. maintains strength in software and AI but has lost ground in manufacturing innovation and materials science

And all this has happened before the nation decided to turn its back on science.

What's the future impact? Where the minds move, the future follows!

**#Innovation** **#Research** **#Science** **#Future** **#Global** **#Transformation** **#Competition** **#Knowledge** **#Technology** **#Investment**

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/daily-inspiration-the-hollowing-out-of-rd-where-the-minds-go-the-future-follows/

@energisch_ MAKE CANADA GREAT AGAIN! SO MUCH LOL!

This is actually funny!

Weren't tariffs going to create American jobs?

So Canada says because of the idiocy, it will cancel the F35 order and will source new jets from Europe instead. And .... Lockheed Martin says, wait, we'll create Canadian jobs!

@sleepyfox @etchedpixels @LinuxAndYarn @cstross @samir Isn't this wonderful though! Here we are debating Linux stuff and not talking politics! My goal is being achieved!

@cstross This is the type of argument we should be having these days!

And so I'll chime in to start a flame war.

**SysVinit vs SystemD**

**Clearly, SysVinit.**

"The most extraordinary futures often begin with the unplanned detours that happen along the way!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Believe in serendipity and happenstance, because you never know what might happen! That's because your greatest expertise may not be where you first planted your flag, but where curiosity led you to explore!

That's how ChatGPT summarized a profile article about me that just came out. And it's wonderful wisdom that very much seems to match my mindset!

The article, "The Accidental Oracle," appears in the spring issue of Pivot Magazine, which goes out to over 220,000 Canadian Chartered Professional Accountants. You can access the PDF here. A few comments: The Family Guide to the Internet is still available on YouTube, and yes, it's embarrassing. Unlike the article suggests, I did 'rock and roll and party all night' - while doing my stint as an auditor while on the road, I served as a DJ at the local pub. I don't know how I ever survived. And yes, I did a short stint with KISS!

Enjoy! I did!

See the full article in the post.

#Serendipity #Career #Pivot #Future #Opportunity #Journey #Expertise #Adaptability #Unexpected #Transformation

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/daily-inspiration-profile-article-the-most-extraordinary-futures-often-begin-with-the-unplanned-detours-that-happen-along-the-way/

"Courage is the ability to speak out when no one else will" - Futurist Jim Carroll

No one seems to be willing to speak up while the damage is being done. Courage has disappeared. Corporate leadership seems to be excelling at mastering the art of being a wimp.

Sure, several top business leaders are 'expressing concern' about how tariff policies might affect companies and the broader economy. But few are willing to do anything. Meanwhile, all the uncertainty from the whiplash of insanity leads to a vortex of crashing consumer confidence, wild volatility, and the likelihood of an economic downturn.

Public comments are weak at best. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase recently changed his view on tariffs, noting that "uncertainty is not a good thing" and suggesting businesses may need to adjust their operations. With that, his team has increased their recession probability estimate from 30% to 40%. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNN that "the economy is weakening as we speak" due to current policies, causing both individuals and business leaders to hesitate and reduce activity.

But aside from a few weak comments like this, few are speaking up. There is no courage. The fact is, while many other CEOs have expressed similar concerns privately, it seems few are willing to speak up. The lack of courage is palpable. This became the subject of an article in the Wall Street Journal the other day.

Consider the article.

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How business leaders talk about the Trump administration in private has been markedly different than what they are game to say in public. The dissonance was on full display here this week. 

Early on Tuesday, dozens of corporate executives and others assembled at a Yale CEO Caucus not far from the White House just as news emerged that the Trump administration planned to potentially double tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada. Those in the room responded with a mix of groans and shocked laughter. 

“There was universal revulsion against the Trump economic policies,” said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management, who organized the invite-only summit that included corporate bosses such as JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, billionaire Michael Dell and Pfizer’s Albert Bourla. “They’re also especially horrified about Canada.” 

That sentiment wasn’t apparent hours later, when many of the same chief executives from the Yale event attended a question-and-answer session with President Trump at the Business Roundtable. There, the exchange was largely cordial and executives didn’t ask the president any pointed questions about his tariff strategy, according to people familiar with the event. 

They're all silent. Scared of their shadows. These are the leaders taking the world into the future. 

**#Courage** **#Leadership** **#Silence** **#Economy** **#Risk** **#Uncertainty** **#Tariffs** **#Innovation** **#Action** **#Accountability**

https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/daily-inspiration-leadership-failure-courage-is-the-ability-to-speak-out-when-no-one-else-will/

""It’s the unknown unknowns that will get you every time!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

On February 12, 2002, United States Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld answered a question at a U.S. Department of Defence (DoD) news briefing about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. His answer has since answered the lexicon of lore, as many people thought that it was fully intended to shield the department from any sort of criticism.

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."

His answer, though, was based on what is known as the "Awareness-understanding matrix", which provides that there are known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knows, and unknown unknowns. Complicated but helpful - when you study it, it makes sense. Things we are aware of and understand; things we are aware of but don't understand; things we are not aware of but understand or know implicitly; and then, the things we are neither aware of nor understand.

In that context, later this morning I'll speak to a room full of insurance CEOs and other senior executives from the industry at a major insurance conference. To get ready for the event, I grabbed about 1,500 articles about the latest trends impacting the insurance industry and used Google Notebook to analyze these articles for key bits of insight.

I will be speaking, among many other issues, about the future of insurance risk, and in that context, will impress upon them that it's the "unknown unknowns" they should worry about - the things they are neither aware of nor understand.

What are those unknown unknowns? In a brief moment of inspiration, I fed it this prompt, in effect asking the AI to analyze these 1500 articles and summarize them.

This is what it came back with, which I worked into my slide deck:

"The insurance industry is caught in a whirlwind: climate volatility, liability inflation, data chaos, talent scarcity, and relentless regulatory pressures, all while battling public mistrust and the nagging fear that tomorrow's risks are growing faster than our capacity to cover them”

That pretty much summarizes my slide deck!

Futurist Jim Carroll has spoken at over 200 insurance and risk-related events throughout the years.

**#Uncertainty** **#Risk** **#Insurance** **#Future** **#Unknown** **#Innovation** **#Technology** **#Preparedness** **#Disruption** **#Awareness**

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/03/daily-inspiration-the-future-of-insurance-its-the-unknown-unknowns-that-will-get-you-every-time/