Notices by Perfume (perfume@qoto.org)

@PeiLun 🤝

本次三角督讓外國觀察大選感到棘手😆

[ “This is the hardest election to forecast in at least two decades,” said Kharis Templeman, a scholar of Taiwan politics and a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. “It’s a real three-way race.”

For Taiwan’s backers in Washington, the uncertainty of who wins the election will be matched only by the question of how China might respond to any electoral outcome—especially one it regards as inimical to its interests. ]

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/taiwan-hurtles-toward-uncertain-presidential-vote-with-global-stakes-2b88c0cd?mod=asia_news_article_pos1

民主社會對任何共產政權來說都是威脅:

[ What China has been trying to do is use Taiwan as a test ground,” Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, told me. “If they are able to make a difference in this election, I’m sure they are going to try and apply this to other democracies.”

「中國試圖做的是把台灣當成一個試驗場，」台灣外交部長吳釗燮對我說。「如果他們能對這場選舉形成影響，我確信他們也會對別的民主政體嘗試使用這些方法。」]

https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20240111/taiwan-elections-china/zh-hant/dual/

2024大選的外媒報導就從老牌BBC開始，放這串回應中國介選手段：

https://youtu.be/GTH9fzG_Iuk?si=1u190PHeR8BUyvDv

補個印度新媒體的南亞看法：

https://youtu.be/IOQMg4m6rdQ?si=Th_nc8AqzaTwy0Ed

不敢跟WSJ一樣把台灣大選報導放頭版的紐時挑剔猴猴華語口音實在太好笑了:

"Even the Nationalist Party, known for favoring closer ties with Beijing, emphasized deterrence, the status quo and Taiwanese identity. Its candidate, Hou Yu-ih, spoke with such a strong Taiwanese accent that Mandarin speakers unfamiliar with local inflections had a hard time understanding him.

就連以主張與中國建立更密切關係聞名的國民黨也強調威懾、維持現狀，以及台灣人的認同。國民黨候選人侯友宜的國語發音帶有特別濃重的台腔，以至於不熟悉本地發音習慣的人很難聽懂他說什麼。"

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20240114/china-taiwan-election-result-analysis/zh-hant/dual/

雖然對紐時的親北京立場感到鄙夷, 但說賴這個第三任期考驗嚴苛這點倒是非常正確的:

"“How to keep the trust of the people, how to keep politics clean and above board: that’s what a mature political party has to face up to,” Mr. Wang said. “You must always keep in mind that the public won’t allow much room for mistakes.”

「你怎麼樣去讓人民相信你，保持政治的清廉乾淨，這個是成熟型政黨要面對的，」王定宇說。「然後一定要謹記，民眾不會給你太多空間犯錯，他不會原諒你。」

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20240115/taiwan-election-lai/zh-hant/dual/

＃清朝真正統治整個台灣的時間不超過10年

【喪失一寸領土都算「國恥」的想法是我們現代人才有的觀念，對於「大清皇帝」來說，觀念是反過來的，大清皇帝的想法是：「我看得起你，才把你納入管轄」
….
我舉一段真實的歷史讓大家感受一下，大清皇帝對於「增加在台灣的領土範圍」的真實感受。

那是大清嘉慶11年的事情。當時有一則《明發上諭》(聖旨)「朕聞滬尾以北，山內有膏腴之地一處」「向來為逆犯所窺伺，近來屢次在該地出沒，意圖搶占」「命人詢察此處係何地名，派令官兵前往，籌備見機辦理」。

這裡說的「滬尾」，就是當時清朝統治台灣最「北」的行政區相當於今天的「淡水」，再過去的台北盆地東部，就不屬於大清版圖了。所以皇帝才會不知道當地地名….

然後，三年後的嘉慶14年，後續來了：「蛤仔難北境居民，現已聚至六萬餘人」「且於逆犯窺伺之時，協力備禦，幫同殺賊」「實為深明大義，自應收入版圖，豈可置之化外」。

這裡說的「蛤仔難」，就是今天的宜蘭，這則《明發上諭》，就是清朝把原本不屬於版圖的「宜蘭」，納入版圖的過程。這是宜蘭，那麼花蓮與台東呢？很抱歉，那些地方皇上沒留意就繼續當「化外之地」了。】

https://www.facebook.com/leecehao/posts/4219544571460960

推薦象圈網友收看公視大戲《斯卡羅》，共同認識由排灣話、河洛話、客家話、英語、北京話交織而成的南•福爾摩沙十九世紀風雲。

#各角色最少通兩種語言
#牡丹社事件後加通日語
#未來宜略通越語印尼語

推薦給象友們認識《斯卡羅》背景——從主角李仙得的角度來看：

“本書描述19世紀帝國主義脈絡下，台灣南部原住民與中外勢力（清廷、西方政商人士）相遇、衝突與交戰的精彩過程。這些過程乃是圍繞著李仙得與瑯嶠十八番社總頭目卓杞篤之間的盟約而漸次開展的。

首先是美國船舶在卓杞篤的領域內遇難；接著是李仙得憑藉外交手段，逼迫台灣府文武官員（駐紮今台南）派遣清軍南下征伐涉案土著；在清軍壓境瑯嶠地區之際，當地族群（福佬、客家、「混生」）害怕腐敗的官軍趁火打劫，聯手請求卓杞篤出面和官員談判，制止軍隊鎮壓；同時，李仙得（而非台灣總兵）毅然進入番地，與卓杞篤舉行會談，雙方訂下「南岬之盟」，保證維護西方船難者的人身安全。

這項盟約直接證明土著才是恆春半島的領主，也間接顯示清廷確實將此地土著當作「化外」之民，不願承擔船難善後事務。”

#book

https://www.books.com.tw/products/0010567346

"李仙得之所以重要，除了因1867年來台處理在恆春半島龜仔角（Qunans）社發生船難的「羅發號（Rover）事件」外；

1872年日本政府破例以年薪一萬二千元聘請台灣通李仙得為外務省顧問。

此時，李仙得向日本政府提出了“北佔朝鮮，南佔台灣，滿蒙是日本的生命線”戰略計劃的《第四備忘錄》。

李仙得以其在閩台的經歷，多方鼓勵日本出兵侵台，並成為侵台日軍西鄉從道中將(維新三傑薩摩藩首領人物西鄉隆盛之弟)身邊的重要謀士。

李仙得停留日本之際，正是明治維新轟轟烈烈進行，經濟飛速發展，軍力日漸強盛的時刻。

日本國之國土狹窄，維治維新之後國力興盛，便開始向外擴張侵略，首先便將侵略目標對準台灣島。"

https://mcy1227-2.blogspot.com/2019/04/charles-w-le-gendre.html

"How did the doc germinate?

Vanessa: Well, I had this sense that Taiwan is an important story that shouldn’t just be wedged into a U.S./China story. So when I finished my first film, I continued tracking developments there. I have a background in foreign policy. I worked at the Council on Foreign Relations. I felt there is this gap between that world and mainstream audiences, particularly in film. You see it now with what’s happening in Israel/Palestine and with Ukraine. People don’t know how to talk about what’s going on. If we are ever going to get to a place where there is better understanding, diplomacy and peace in the world, you have to at first be able to talk about these issues.

What baffled me when I went to work at the Council on Foreign Relations was: How in the world did our American foreign policy experts set up this country [Taiwan] in a position where it couldn’t avoid being a flashpoint for World War III? How did that happen? "

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/invisible-nation-taiwan-doc-vanessa-ted-hope-1235788560/?fbclid=IwAR1bVbw_8EF4xbiV1hoahltly5IFWF3wmXJrXkW-YEeggnN6v9IAJH_g344

Invisible Nation is director Vanessa Hope’s intimate view of the presidency of Taiwan’s sitting head of state, Tsai Ing-wen, as she fights for the future of her nation.

https://youtu.be/O6TsLVW4tu8?si=49FhIvx3sBNXeI7J

2024大選因為世界局勢的變化而更受世界矚目:

https://youtu.be/qIX-fFcVTzc?si=gr1WQ1AsB5FLrXg0

WSJ認為這次大選三名主要候選人都對中國保持距離:

"With voters set to cast their ballots for a new leader in a volatile three-way election next month, Taiwanese politics has shifted decisively, and perhaps irrevocably, away from China. The change in mood is evident in public-opinion polls—and even in the campaign of the opposition Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang."

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-confronts-a-new-political-reality-in-taiwan-no-friends-1e3a356d?mod=asia_more_article_pos2

大選前夕的新加坡觀點帶著濃濃北京悲觀味:

[ A poll in September found that 48.9 per cent of Taiwanese favoured formal independence, with less than 27 per cent in support of maintaining the status quo.

"Maybe in the long run, a DPP victory in 2024 isn't the worst outcome," said Hunzeker. "The worst outcome could be if KMT wins the election in 2024 and Beijing concludes, we can't even rely on the KMT." ]

https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/beijings-dilemma-dpp-wins-taiwan-093000899.html

外國人觀察台灣大選很容易被這種嘉年華氣氛所迷惑😆

[ “You, of course, also find plenty of Taiwanese people who are very cynical about their politics,” said Mark Harrison, a senior lecturer at the University of Tasmania in Australia who studies Taiwan’s political culture, “but at the end of the day what brings out 50,000 people at a rally is a belief in their democracy, and right now, especially, that commitment has something to teach the rest of the world.”

「當然也能找到不少台灣人對他們的政治非常憤世嫉俗，」馬克·哈利森說，他是在澳洲塔斯馬尼亞大學研究台灣政治文化的高級講師，「但到頭來，讓5萬人參加集會的是他們對民主的信仰，尤其是現在，這種投入是世界其他地方需要學習的東西。」]

https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20240112/taiwan-election-democracy-loud/zh-hant/dual/

英媒在預測後續這方面向來保守：

https://youtu.be/Sl2Oq9TOZaM?si=PcVfkyOiG3_x6icN

比較意外美國PBS也報了台灣大選：

https://youtu.be/yPKQD5tPxOo?si=ZYE4n_I7ehlDvEfu

選前跟馬英九一起紅了一把的德國之聲一開頭就點出第三回執政這個重點：

https://youtu.be/Czhv1RcIQ2k?si=qHfNWWCjyUO8OY8Z