Notices by Zecharias Zelalem (zekuzelalem@dair-community.social), page 4

With this range, the howitzers could hit numerous rebel held villages from the stadium in Woldia city. Among them, the village of Kalim 12km away, which relatives of victims tell us was hit on November 11th 2024, killing five people.

NASA Firms fire data also appears to show a number of suspicious blazes in villages, corresponding to the dates eyewitnesses gave us for artillery barrages on their homes. While fire data cannot confirm anything on its own, it can give further weight to claims.

A few minutes of searching, and I stumbled upon what looked like artillery guns at the stadium's main gate. I asked a renowned weapons expert to analyze the images. Wim Zwijnenburg of Dutch peace organization Pax identified them as Soviet origin D30 122 mm howitzers.

Here's a file photo of the model. They have a range of up to 15km, but with self propelled ammunition they can hit targets 20km away. This brings many rebel held villages within striking distance.

Google Earth imagery is the only way we can get a glimpse of the stadium grounds, as residents of Woldia say soldiers threaten to shoot anyone who approaches. Imagery from June 2024 shows terrible neglect, with the rotting football field grass, stadium tiles falling apart from what was once a beautiful sporting facility.

Dozens of army trucks are on the premises, of what was once a parking lot for happy, cheery football fans.

In addition, media reports from a slew of local outlets, but also the BBC and VOA's Amharic services made reference to artillery shells at civilian homes fired "from around the stadium." Most of these reports began making the rounds in and around July of this year.

Residents said the army cordoned off the stadium and made it its property around a year ago. But no one was immediately aware of the heavy artillery site established at the stadium.

We acted on tips that residents shared, including that they heard explosions and flashes in the sky reminiscent of artillery blasts originating from Woldia Stadium.

Woldia city stadium was built in 2017 at a cost of $22 million US. It was financed by Ethiopian born Saudi billionaire Sheikh Mohammed Al Amoudi, who grew up in the city. It was hoped it would boost the football fanatic country's hopes to once again become an African Cup of Nations host nation.

I began looking into it.

My latest for The Globe and Mail newspaper:

Acting on tips from residents in Ethiopia's war torn Amhara region...we investigated & eventually learned that the Ethiopian government converted a 25,000 seater football stadium into a military base and artillery launch site, linked to the deaths of at least six civilians during the month of November and likely many more.

The stadium is off limits to the public, blocked off by soldiers. But satellite imagery was revelatory.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-ethiopian-soccer-stadium-becomes-artillery-site-as-amhara-war-persists/

Meanwhile, rallies were also held in rebel held areas of the Amhara region.

These slogans were slightly different though.
Translations of slogans:

Man on donkey "Abiy Ahmed is the Black African Hitler, the [Ethiopian army] is the [Rwandan] Interahamwe."

Boy with cardboard box: "Believe me, Aboy Ahmed is a murderer!"

Girl: "The [Ethiopian] army are rapists of women and children."

I have no word on whether rebels themselves organized and coerced people to show up.

They forced the kids to show up too. None of them look like they want to be there. All of the slogans praised the government, condemned the rebels, and called for their surrender and for "peace."

The problem is, the facial reactions and body language say something else. Try getting a large group of bored highschool teenagers not just in Ethiopia, but anywhere in the world really, to feign cheeriness.

It might have been slightly more convincing if some of the protest leaders weren't individuals identified by some eyewitnesses as members of the local security force, with one protest leader photographed here showing up with his bullet proof vest.

The government closed all schools and offices for the day, with letters circulated to civil servants at their places of employment essentially threatening them into showing up.

Hence the expressions on the faces of some of the participants.

Amazing turnout at the mandatory pro government rally in Ethiopia's Amhara region yesterday!

It seems threatening letters warning absentees of punishment at the hands of the army, had an affect. State media TV beamed the images of "the masses behind their government" to millions across the country. But will the heavy presence of soldiers & "protest leaders" reading slogans from a piece of paper convince Emmanuel Macron (who arrives in Ethiopia today) that these rallies were legit?

Shrugs!

Anyhoo, Ethiopian state media will likely flood the airwaves with headlines of the Ethiopian masses supporting the government and urging rebels to surrender. Might have worked in the 70ies...less convincing when threatening letters go viral on social media.

Anyways...the consensus is that the rally is for the consumption of:

1. World Bank lenders, to convince them that the military offensive is a popular one.
2. Emmanuel Macron, who arrives in the country on Friday.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/emmanuel-macron-se-rendra-a-djibouti-et-en-ethiopie-en-fin-de-semaine-20241217

Drone massacres carried out by Ethiopian forces in its war with rebels in its Amhara region, have rendered the Ethiopian gov extremely unpopular in that region.

In an attempt to claim legitimacy, a pro government rally is being organized across Amhara today. Locals received threatening letters like these from administrative offices, warning of unspecified consequences if they don't attend.

Mandatory rallies: a time honored tradition in Ethiopia, dating back to the 70ies communist era.

@ohmu same! They aren't really telling us anything, so it's hard to know what will happen. But as long as they're talking, no one will fire at each other. Hope I'll provide positive updates in 2025!

I'll be writing more about the dynamics in the coming days.

For now, Ankara appears to have steered the region away from a potential conflict or proxy conflict, that could have pitted Egypt, Somalia and possibly Eritrea on one side...against Ethiopia and possibly the UAE on the other.

We'll take it. We're effing sick of war!

-ZZ.

Secondly, how will the UAE take the news? Will it try to scupper the deal?

In August, Djibouti, tried to cool down tensions by offering Ethiopia access to its port of Tadjoura, in exchange for abandoning the MoU. A potential win win scenario.

Ethiopia never responded to the offer. Sources of mine say that Ethiopia, a client state of the UAE, had considered the deal, but didn't sign along as the UAE wasn't happy with a deal that would gain it zero influence in Somalia.

https://www.voanews.com/a/djibouti-offers-port-to-defuse-ethiopia-somalia-tension/7766797.html

A couple things that aren't clear: what exactly will happen to the African Union peacekeeping mission in 2025?

Somalia was keen on expelling Ethiopian soldiers from the AU peacekeeping mission in the country by January, and replacing them with Egyptians. What happens now? My assumption is that Somalia have either agreed not to allow Egyptians in, or will either limit their presence. Which will irritate Cairo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-expel-ethiopian-troops-unless-somaliland-port-deal-scrapped-official-2024-06-03/

It's a huge win for Turkiye as well. Ankara views both Ethiopia and Somalia as part of its "Greater Middle East" foreign policy map, and didn't want to have to sacrifice an ally for another. Especially since it has defense or arm sales agreements with both states. The agreement increases Ankara's influence in the region, which it jostles for with the likes of the UAE, KSA, Qatar, Egypt and others players.

It is unclear exactly what Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to. However, what is known is that Turkey, Somalia and Ethiopia would begin talks in February 2025 that would address Ethiopia's desire for sea access...while ensuring Ethiopia "would respect Somalia’s territorial integrity."

This almost certainly means that Ethiopia is set to rescind the controversial MoU with Somaliland, a huge win for Somalia.

Ethiopia pushed on with the deal, but got no support from any states, allied or not for it. Somalia meanwhile launched a diplomatic offensive, which gained it sympathy from most western states, and a pledge from Egypt to defend it from "Ethiopian aggression." Eventually, Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea, all signed an opaque diplomatic agreement dubbed the "axis against Ethiopia."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdje7pkv1zxo

In the Horn of Africa, 2024 began with a bang when Ethiopia out of the blues announced that it had signed a controversial MoU with Somaliland, which would secure it a naval base off the coast of the breakaway republic. In exchange, Ethiopia would become the first state to recognize Somaliland's independence. Somalia was furious, and viewed the MoU as an act of war and a violation of its sovereignty.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/1/4/ambiguous-ethiopia-port-deal-fuels-uncertainty-over-somaliland-statehood