Zecharias Zelalem
THREAD: Huge news out of Ankara, Turkiye. After a year of bickering and diplomatic tensions, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced that Ethiopia and Somalia have pledged to end their near year long feud, over Ethiopia's controversial MoU with the breakaway republic of Somaliland.
This appears to have defused the potential for conflict in the region. For now.
https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-somalia-reach-compromise-to-end-feud-turkey-says/a-71029613
Zecharias Zelalem
In the Horn of Africa, 2024 began with a bang when Ethiopia out of the blues announced that it had signed a controversial MoU with Somaliland, which would secure it a naval base off the coast of the breakaway republic. In exchange, Ethiopia would become the first state to recognize Somaliland's independence. Somalia was furious, and viewed the MoU as an act of war and a violation of its sovereignty.
Zecharias Zelalem
Ethiopia pushed on with the deal, but got no support from any states, allied or not for it. Somalia meanwhile launched a diplomatic offensive, which gained it sympathy from most western states, and a pledge from Egypt to defend it from "Ethiopian aggression." Eventually, Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea, all signed an opaque diplomatic agreement dubbed the "axis against Ethiopia."
Zecharias Zelalem
It is unclear exactly what Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to. However, what is known is that Turkey, Somalia and Ethiopia would begin talks in February 2025 that would address Ethiopia's desire for sea access...while ensuring Ethiopia "would respect Somalia’s territorial integrity."
This almost certainly means that Ethiopia is set to rescind the controversial MoU with Somaliland, a huge win for Somalia.
Zecharias Zelalem
It's a huge win for Turkiye as well. Ankara views both Ethiopia and Somalia as part of its "Greater Middle East" foreign policy map, and didn't want to have to sacrifice an ally for another. Especially since it has defense or arm sales agreements with both states. The agreement increases Ankara's influence in the region, which it jostles for with the likes of the UAE, KSA, Qatar, Egypt and others players.
Zecharias Zelalem
A couple things that aren't clear: what exactly will happen to the African Union peacekeeping mission in 2025?
Somalia was keen on expelling Ethiopian soldiers from the AU peacekeeping mission in the country by January, and replacing them with Egyptians. What happens now? My assumption is that Somalia have either agreed not to allow Egyptians in, or will either limit their presence. Which will irritate Cairo.
Zecharias Zelalem
Secondly, how will the UAE take the news? Will it try to scupper the deal?
In August, Djibouti, tried to cool down tensions by offering Ethiopia access to its port of Tadjoura, in exchange for abandoning the MoU. A potential win win scenario.
Ethiopia never responded to the offer. Sources of mine say that Ethiopia, a client state of the UAE, had considered the deal, but didn't sign along as the UAE wasn't happy with a deal that would gain it zero influence in Somalia.
https://www.voanews.com/a/djibouti-offers-port-to-defuse-ethiopia-somalia-tension/7766797.html
Zecharias Zelalem
I'll be writing more about the dynamics in the coming days.
For now, Ankara appears to have steered the region away from a potential conflict or proxy conflict, that could have pitted Egypt, Somalia and possibly Eritrea on one side...against Ethiopia and possibly the UAE on the other.
We'll take it. We're effing sick of war!
-ZZ.
Zecharias Zelalem
@ohmu same! They aren't really telling us anything, so it's hard to know what will happen. But as long as they're talking, no one will fire at each other. Hope I'll provide positive updates in 2025!
Weird Socks
@ZekuZelalem
Just like you said it.
I hope this is as positive as it sounds.
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