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I made a horribly hackey and quick election forecast model last night for #elxn45 and this is what I came up with.

It doesn't take into account demographic or candidate adjustments, and it's almost certainly underestimating NDP and GPC seats, but it backtests well 😅

I'll post some insights I've found over the course of the night, as well as updated projections as ridings get called.

Mute the thread or the #jszym_elxn45 hashtag to shut me up.

#canada #cdnpoli