@g

Yes, the origins of the war are really simple. It’s Putina impotence at delivering promises he’s been making since 1999 - economic growth, improved welfare, economic equality, education, healthcare etc. He has been making these promises each year, but failed to actually deliver these in spite of massive oil and gas incomes. In 2012 when he violated Russian Constitution, he even made a then-famous “May Decrees” which were a long list tangible goals in all these spheres, which were expected to form the new social contract for Russia… but he failed again.

In the meantime the economy of former Soviet countries like Poland continued to grow outside of Russia’s oligarchic model, and Ukraine decided it wants a change and decided on association with EU.

The problem was of course that if Ukraine followed the Polish growth (which has already started), even the Russians would start asking questions about why their leaders don’t deliver.

And that was indeed the only real “security concern” posed by Ukraine to Russia, and the reason why the war started. Russian model is unsustainable in long run and only holds by use of force.