I like the piece, but think it undercounts the importance of people's belief in Harrris' support for trans rights (which I see as directly in support of the main claim). A recent survey suggests this was the main reason swing voters didn't support Harris.
I can see arguments, like this article, that say the total impact from polarizing the base is more important, but see an equally strong reason to care mostly about those most likely to be swayed.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/10/democrats-working-class-voters-trump