jackhutton
[TNR]: Why Does No One Understand the Real Reason Trump Won? By Michael Tomasky
It wasn’t the economy. It wasn’t inflation, or anything else. It was how people perceive those things, which points to one overpowering answer.
https://newrepublic.com/post/188197/trump-media-information-landscape-fox
she hacked you
@FantasticalEconomics @jackhutton You are aware that "a survey" is not exactly the same as a scientific study right?
Just because a recent survey said something, doesn't mean much, even when they are used in research, a single study is not enough data to make any sort of judgement on.
However if you are just trying to assign blame to anything at all that is not the genocide for why she lost then, well you will have to try harder than that.
Clinton shouldn't have went to Michigan too
Kyle Montanio
I like the piece, but think it undercounts the importance of people's belief in Harrris' support for trans rights (which I see as directly in support of the main claim). A recent survey suggests this was the main reason swing voters didn't support Harris.
I can see arguments, like this article, that say the total impact from polarizing the base is more important, but see an equally strong reason to care mostly about those most likely to be swayed.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/10/democrats-working-class-voters-trump
Kyle Montanio
Surveys provide some evidence and can influence our judgment. It is certainly far less convincing than a full study but, given the recency of the election, we don't have the luxury of scientific studies.
That said, I agree there were likely more folks on the left who chose not to vote because of the Democrats' stance on Gaza. But we genuinely cannot know exactly how the magnitude of each compare. Both are probably sufficient to swing the election, imo.
she hacked you
@FantasticalEconomics @jackhutton "LGBT voters, a larger share of the electorate than ever, shift away from Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris led President-elect Donald Trump 86% to 12% among lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender voters, according to the NBC News Exit Poll Desk."
No, surveys have self-selected populations answer questions. Their primary use by political parties is very manipulative.
You believed it, and you could have looked at the exit poll data .. but...
she hacked you
@FantasticalEconomics @jackhutton A survey is a self-selected sample
Surveys paid for by the Party itself are just unscientific at best
No survey could ever analyze the effect of a single issue of the entire platform for effect on voter results
Very unscientific for the people who "believe science" and transparently motivated by a need to assign blame to an out-group
Very predictable that the Democratic Party would do this
Appeal to voters, don't support genocide. Not that complex
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