Another big effect on this election is many Americans simply don't believe Trump will do what he says he will do -- which is stupid, yes, but it says a lot about how hard a conservative owned media has worked to whitewash Trump as a normal candidate.
For a lot of people, the Trump years were a TV drama that didn't affect them until COVID, and some people are inclined to treat COVID as a fluke, an act of god, and not his fault.
But they think he'll stick it to the establishment.