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Here. Right here is when it all went wrong.

https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/113296098233486301

I'll admit I did not know that the effect on Black turnout would be this bad. I knew it was bad, but I significantly underestimated how bad. I didn't pay attention to it. I didn't know that the backslide in support continued.

Another miscalculation I made: I was pretty sure that the majority of white women would vote for Trump, and that white women's turnout would be high, but I did not anticipate how high. They showed up.