I think a lot of people thought these things were just constantly increasing and guaranteed rather than increasing complexity with decreasing returns which without something special would result in a plateau.

Many have hoped that "AI" is that something special, but the level of base complexity in LLMs is so high that it isn't a silver bullet.

RT: https://poa.st/objects/6b5d66a5-93e3-4af7-9747-a613311d51b4