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<blockquote style="position: relative; padding-left: 55px;"><section><a href="https://mastodon.social/users/thomasjwebb/statuses/112955140725573519">𝚝𝚓𝚠 (thomasjwebb@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 14-Aug-2024 06:47:04 JST</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/@thomasjwebb" title="thomasjwebb@mastodon.social"><img src="https://gnusocial.jp/avatar/59060-48-20240903174820.webp" width="48" height="48" alt="𝚝𝚓𝚠" style="position: absolute; left: 0; top: 0;">𝚝𝚓𝚠</a></section><article><p>People are just bad at thinking probabilistically. If a pollster was saying Harris had a 48% of winning a few days ago and now says she has a 52% chance, that doesn't mean they were predicting a Trump win before and a Harris win now. These are both coin flip odds. I personally think Harris is going to win but it ain't over.</p></article><footer><a rel="bookmark" href="https://gnusocial.jp/conversation/3514892#notice-6905056">In conversation</a><time datetime="2024-08-14T06:47:04+09:00" title="Wednesday, 14-Aug-2024 06:47:04 JST">about 6 months ago</time> <span>from <span><a href="https://mastodon.social/@thomasjwebb/112955140725573519" rel="external" title="Sent from mastodon.social via ActivityPub">mastodon.social</a></span></span><a href="https://mastodon.social/@thomasjwebb/112955140725573519">permalink</a></footer></blockquote>

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𝚝𝚓𝚠 (thomasjwebb@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 14-Aug-2024 06:47:04 JST 𝚝𝚓𝚠
People are just bad at thinking probabilistically. If a pollster was saying Harris had a 48% of winning a few days ago and now says she has a 52% chance, that doesn't mean they were predicting a Trump win before and a Harris win now. These are both coin flip odds. I personally think Harris is going to win but it ain't over.
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