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   𝚝𝚓𝚠 (thomasjwebb@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 14-Aug-2024 06:47:04 JST 𝚝𝚓𝚠

   People are just bad at thinking probabilistically. If a pollster was saying Harris had a 48% of winning a few days ago and now says she has a 52% chance, that doesn't mean they were predicting a Trump win before and a Harris win now. These are both coin flip odds. I personally think Harris is going to win but it ain't over.

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     fu (fu@libranet.de)'s status on Wednesday, 14-Aug-2024 06:47:04 JST fu

     in reply to
     @thomasjwebb The Dems will win the popular vote, as they have every potus election since 1989 save one. Trump will claim to have won the electoral college.