> The thing is... that's not going to happen. It simply is not going to happen in this election or anytime soon.
Irrelevant... "This evil person is so popular its unlikely people would pick someone who isnt evil" is a very very poor argument to convince someone to support evil people in positions of power.
Moreover the value of a vote is **not** if my vote matches who won. The value of a vote is if your vote had an **effect** on the outcome that is positive, or some future outcome. There are two ways your individual vote makes a difference 1) if it changes the numbers enough as to make people think int he future something (like a third party win) is more possible or 2) the election is an exact tie and you happen to be the deciding vote. If we consider point #1 then a third party is best choice because it fixes the problem you stated that no one would vote third party, it proves third party is more viable by showing higher support numbers that will swing support in future elections. For #2 a third party is also your best choice, as your vote is a much larger percentage of the share for the underdog, therefore the chance your one vote will make a difference in your local election is much higher since you represent a much higher share of the vote.
So yea if you actually care about your vote having a positive effect you would vote third party.