@mwt @feld first off read this.

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/is-it-time-for-congress-to-reconsider-the-mortgage-interest-deduction/

Secondary you are not considering what price discovery does to the lending standards, what is the debt to income ratio tolerated? with that you can get a rough basis with dual income what the median home price should be then just run the math.

What does that mean?

Standards and guidelines vary, most lenders like to see a DTI below 35─36%

Remember that includes cars, personal loans and all of that.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dti.asp#:~:text=What%20Is%20a%20Good%20Debt,a%20mortgage%20or%20rent%20payment.

no more than 28% going to home or mortgage.

The median male salary in 2022 was $52,612.

dual income $105,224

$29,462 allocated to loan.

$2,455 per month for payment is tolerated for ideal. This prevents default.

Give or take thats a 320,000 house

That is crushed by the current prices.

Lets do this another way that is even simpler.

$105,224 x 3 = $315,672

Now we can do it even more complicated.

median house at 7% total payments

495,100 x 3 1485300

divide that by 350 you get 4125.83 per month.

$315,672 x 3 = 947016

divide that by 360?

2630.60 per month.

Look the math checks, the data is solid. Show me how I am wrong.