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@mwt @feld first off read this.
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/is-it-time-for-congress-to-reconsider-the-mortgage-interest-deduction/
Secondary you are not considering what price discovery does to the lending standards, what is the debt to income ratio tolerated? with that you can get a rough basis with dual income what the median home price should be then just run the math.
What does that mean?
Standards and guidelines vary, most lenders like to see a DTI below 35─36%
Remember that includes cars, personal loans and all of that.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dti.asp#:~:text=What%20Is%20a%20Good%20Debt,a%20mortgage%20or%20rent%20payment.
no more than 28% going to home or mortgage.
The median male salary in 2022 was $52,612.
dual income $105,224
$29,462 allocated to loan.
$2,455 per month for payment is tolerated for ideal. This prevents default.
Give or take thats a 320,000 house
That is crushed by the current prices.
Lets do this another way that is even simpler.
$105,224 x 3 = $315,672
Now we can do it even more complicated.
median house at 7% total payments
495,100 x 3 1485300
divide that by 350 you get 4125.83 per month.
$315,672 x 3 = 947016
divide that by 360?
2630.60 per month.
Look the math checks, the data is solid. Show me how I am wrong.