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<blockquote style="position: relative; padding-left: 55px;"><section><a href="https://mstdn.science/users/jeffgilchrist/statuses/111598302715962838">Jeff Gilchrist (jeffgilchrist@mstdn.science)'s status on Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:47:44 JST</a><a href="https://mstdn.science/@jeffgilchrist" title="jeffgilchrist@mstdn.science"><img src="https://gnusocial.jp/avatar/73898-48-20221215062821.webp" width="48" height="48" alt="Jeff Gilchrist" style="position: absolute; left: 0; top: 0;">Jeff Gilchrist</a></section><article><p>It is estimated that currently 1 in 13 people are infected in Ontario which means there is a 55% chance at least one person in your group of 10 is infected. This jumps to a 70% chance in groups of 15, 86.5% chance with 25 people and 98% chance at that office Christmas party of 50 people.</p><p>Estimate from ( <a href="https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/</a> ) and calculator available at ( <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing</a>  ). 🧵 1/</p></article><footer><a rel="bookmark" href="https://gnusocial.jp/conversation/2467633#notice-4882192">In conversation</a><time datetime="2023-12-18T12:47:44+09:00" title="Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:47:44 JST">about a year ago</time> <span>from <span><a href="https://mstdn.science/@jeffgilchrist/111598302715962838" rel="external" title="Sent from mstdn.science via ActivityPub">mstdn.science</a></span></span><a href="https://mstdn.science/@jeffgilchrist/111598302715962838">permalink</a><h4>Attachments</h4><ol><li><label><a rel="external" href="https://gnusocial.jp/attachment/1199176">Untitled attachment</a></label><br></li><li><label><a rel="external" href="https://gnusocial.jp/attachment/1981470">Chart showing if 1 in 13 people are infected in Ontario that means there is a 55% chance at least one person in your group of 10 is infected, jumps to 70% chance in groups of 15, 86.5% chance with 25 people and 98% chance for that office Christmas party of 50 people. Calculator available at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing</a></label><br><a href="https://static.mstdn.science/media_attachments/files/111/598/301/702/085/744/original/1b8331ba03f871f7.png" rel="external">https://static.mstdn.science/media_attachments/files/111/598/301/702/085/744/original/1b8331ba03f871f7.png</a></li><li><article><header><div>Domain not in remote thumbnail source whitelist: lh7-us.googleusercontent.com</div><h5><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing">Calculate the probability that 1 person (or more) is infected in group of size n</a></h5><div></div></header><div>Probability 1+ Person Infected in GroupCalculate the Probability that 1 Person (or more) is Infected in Group of Size n
Created by:,Dr. Jeff Gilchrist
Last updated:,December 17, 2023
NOTE: To change the values in this calculator you first need to ...</div><footer></footer></article></li></ol></footer></blockquote>

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Jeff Gilchrist (jeffgilchrist@mstdn.science)'s status on Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:47:44 JST Jeff Gilchrist
It is estimated that currently 1 in 13 people are infected in Ontario which means there is a 55% chance at least one person in your group of 10 is infected. This jumps to a 70% chance in groups of 15, 86.5% chance with 25 people and 98% chance at that office Christmas party of 50 people.
Estimate from ( https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/ ) and calculator available at ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing ). 🧵 1/
In conversationabout a year ago from mstdn.sciencepermalink
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2. Chart showing if 1 in 13 people are infected in Ontario that means there is a 55% chance at least one person in your group of 10 is infected, jumps to 70% chance in groups of 15, 86.5% chance with 25 people and 98% chance for that office Christmas party of 50 people. Calculator available at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qokCvvi6oRYRCKtrZuyeUmb5mt4LC9o8nKHLKoAUVAY/edit?usp=sharing
  https://static.mstdn.science/media_attachments/files/111/598/301/702/085/744/original/1b8331ba03f871f7.png
3. Domain not in remote thumbnail source whitelist: lh7-us.googleusercontent.com
  Calculate the probability that 1 person (or more) is infected in group of size n
  Probability 1+ Person Infected in Group Calculate the Probability that 1 Person (or more) is Infected in Group of Size n Created by:,Dr. Jeff Gilchrist Last updated:,December 17, 2023 NOTE: To change the values in this calculator you first need to ...

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