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@tchambers@indieweb.social @fediversenews@venera.social I think it very likely that most of the #Mastodon based #fediverse will eventually defederate. Even those who planned to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Here's why... threads.net is the instance. The only instance.

Let's game this out a bit. Imagine that "Libs of TikTok" gets reported for breaking the server rules of "example.social". That report will go to Threads, because it's their user. Threads will do nothing. "Libs of TikTok" will post something even more vile. More reports start flowing in. Threads again does nothing.

Eventually, in order to enforce their server rules, example.social admins will have no choice but to defederate from Libs of TikTok's instance.

Only, this ain't poa.st or chudbuds.lol with a few dozen neo-nazis. This is Threads with Libs of TikTok and my mom and Carl Beto, a random housepainter living in Detroit ... all mixed in together.

My prediction is that Threads will give us no choice. They will become another AP silo, like Lies Social and Gab, only unlike those cesspools, it won't be voluntary.