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@atomicpoet This is something I try to reiterate periodically. Unless you're talking about Gab or Kiwifarms or something (which generates a near-universal block response) fediblock works like this:

1. A person or group announces a fediblock/suspend against a server.
2. A small handful of servers investigate the claims, and Suspend/block.
3. A slightly-larger number of servers silence as a first punitive step, or out of caution.
4. The vast majority of everyone else does nothing (or treats it as a 'wait and see')

People talk about 'defederation wars' as if there's massive numbers of servers all defederating in response to one event and that just has not happened in my experience.

In this case?

People might defederate right off the bat as a precautionary measure.

But other servers won't.

I do find it interesting you mention mastodon.social, however. Since I think some of the content (apologia for transphobia, for instance) would violate mastodon.social's rules.

Most likely there will be several larger servers willing to federate with them.

This is all just my opinion, but I don't think massive defederation is necessarily going to happen.

Even if justified (for privacy/content reasons.)