It will certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out. I think your assessment of the camps is fairly accurate.
I guess I'd add that there are subsets of those groups whose specifics will probably drive a lot of these decisions though. Like the very vocal anti-search minority of the old guard, techie Twitter exiles like me who see value in protecting the fediverse and growing it, and the hustle-n-grind VCs who want to turn any online space into money for themselves.