@skinnylatte “There was a three-year period during COVID that people my age didn’t learn how to party,” Velasquez said.
This is the key.
San Francisco is an interesting outlier with the skyrocketing home prices and partially burst tech bubble (WFH), but the lost time during Covid is what fundamentally changed the market on a grand scale.
There’s three distinct generations that were formed by Covid:
The first was the one which had reached college and would have been partying had they not been in lockdown. They were 18-20 when the lockdowns started, and were at home for their 21st birthday. By the time the restrictions lifted, they had still never set foot in a bar and had little more than curiosity about them.
The second group was in high school during the Covid lockdowns. They graduated and went to college, but turned 21 after the restrictions had already lifted. They were influenced by the generation before them, which means they had no older friends in college encouraging them to come to a bar with them.
The final group is those who were 21-24ish when the lockdown started. They had gone to college and lived the typical experience (underage drinking at parties). They had reached 21 and started going to bars. They enjoyed themselves before the lockdowns happened. By the time the lockdowns were lifted, they had been saving up to let loose - only to find that a large chunk of the bars they used to frequent had closed down.
2021-2022 had some of the highest sales on record for a number of bars in my area. After about six months, people learned how to behave again. Numbers started dropping back to normal before slumping as the younger generation began to trickle in.