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   Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:42 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

   Looks like the Russian ?? missiles that hit Polish ?? territory and killed two people today were not exactly "randomly off course":
   https://nitter.it/sumlenny/status/1592616005851054080

   > Most probably it was not an accident. The Russians are testing our response. They are in a win-in game: if they hit the power line, they strangle Ukraine. If not they say it was not they / it was an accident and see, how fast we react and where are the weak spots in our reaction.

   Edit: it was UA air defense msl.

   • Embed this notice
     Alexandre Oliva (lxo@gnusocial.net)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:33 JST Alexandre Oliva

     in reply to
     you have my sympathy. enduring this isn't easy.
     but focusing on the immediate vicinity of the conflict, disregarding the forces acting on it from afar, while tempting, may make us miss the forest for the trees, and makes us far more vulnerable to manipulation.
     manipulated, we end up serving injustice even while believing to pursue justice.
   • Embed this notice
     Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:34 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • Alexandre Oliva

     @lxo no, the two sides of this conflict is Ukraine and Russia. Making the "other side" of this conflict some nebulous "them" somewhere "in long distance" removes agency from Ukrainians, and I have no stomach for that.

   • Embed this notice
     Alexandre Oliva (lxo@gnusocial.net)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:35 JST Alexandre Oliva

     in reply to
     but remember there are bullies on both sides of this conflict, one invading, the other inciting conflict and supporting the invaded from a long distance. whatever you think one of the bullies' dirty tactics could be should not be ruled out as the other bully's dirty tactics. and one of them is far enough away that they might actually not mind an escalation, whereas the other would have a lot to lose.
   • Embed this notice
     Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:37 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • Michael Kohne

     @mhkohne I usually strongly agree with Hanlon's Razor.

     Not here. Here we're dealing with a bully. And bullies love using plausible deniability when they are called out. Remember MH-17.

     So we need to deny the bully the use of this tool. "I don't care why and how it happened, it must not ever happen again, and it's your job to make sure it doesn't."

   • Embed this notice
     Michael Kohne (mhkohne@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:38 JST Michael Kohne

     in reply to

     @rysiek I'm also not saying NATO shouldn't react quickly and forcibly (Anti-missile and supporting troops at the Polish border wouldn't be at all unreasonable, for instance). I also think this incident should be used to moral beat-down anyone opposed to any and all aid to Ukraine. I just don't think we should attribute to malice that which can be easily explained by stupidity.

   • Embed this notice
     Michael Kohne (mhkohne@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:39 JST Michael Kohne

     in reply to

     @rysiek All the other coverage I found says a grain processing area, not an important power line. Other coverage may well be understating the issue, and I possibly am giving the Russians WAY too much credit for thinking they wouldn't be stupid enough to intentionally attack a NATO member.

   • Embed this notice
     Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:40 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • Michael Kohne

     @mhkohne did you bother to read the thread linked in my toot?

   • Embed this notice
     Michael Kohne (mhkohne@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 16-Nov-2022 23:21:41 JST Michael Kohne

     in reply to

     @rysiek I don't buy that it was intentional. There's not a lot of upside in actually pissing NATO off. Best case scenario pro-russian voices in NATO get much weaker. Worst case NATO forces roll in and help the Ukranians sweep the Russian army off the board. Even Putin knows by now that his military is a hollowed-out shell.

   • Embed this notice
     Alexandre Oliva (lxo@gnusocial.net)'s status on Thursday, 17-Nov-2022 06:26:08 JST Alexandre Oliva

     in reply to
     such unkind words :-( we've done better.
     I'm actually suggesting you to pay attention to the illness, rather than only to the symptom. but it's no use if you're not listening because you're too terrified by the symptom.
   • Embed this notice
     Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Thursday, 17-Nov-2022 06:26:09 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • Alexandre Oliva

     @lxo I'm sorry to say, but I do not care much about your sympathy.

     What I care about is that my neighbors' house is on fire, and you are telling me to not waste water. And that's crap.

   • Embed this notice
     Alexandre Oliva (lxo@gnusocial.net)'s status on Thursday, 17-Nov-2022 11:09:14 JST Alexandre Oliva

     in reply to
     my reading is exactly that the more distant empire decided to make the land where my grandparents were born the playground for this proxy war. after the coup d'etat, any preexisting self-determination was toast. it became a pawn for the US. and then, just like russian missiles in cuba led to a strong reaction, the prospect of US/NATO bases in ukraine led to a strong reaction. so obvious and predictable that arguing the provocation didn't intend that outcome would be disingenuous at best. so the US weakened russia by getting it into a war against a proxy for the western world and by getting an excuse to impose trade sanctions on it; weakened and aligned Europe with the US empire by threatening energy supplies coming from Russia; strengthened and expanded NATO through fear from Russian invasion; strengthened the US war industry by supplying Ukraine and prolonged the conflict by discouraging peace negotiations while pretending to care about the Ukrainian people, who they've used as pawns, pretend to support, but who are actually getting beaten up by both empires. this all adds up to the very opposite of supporting Ukrainian agency. that's why considering the big picture and the forces from a distance matters. Ukrainian agency will not be served by throwing it on the lap of either empire. the Russia=evil/West=good narrative is built on propaganda. I mean, at least the second half of it is. we'll all be best served by fighting imperialism, not by favoring either empire
   • Embed this notice
     Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Thursday, 17-Nov-2022 11:09:15 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • Alexandre Oliva

     @lxo USA and the so-called West are no saints, obviously. But we can walk and chew gum.

     We can recognize the Iraq war as an abomination, and we can at the same time recognize that right now, Ukrainian house is on fire, and they need our help.

     As I said, I have no stomach for denying Ukrainians their agency in this situation. Both-sidesing it using vague innuendo about some "other bullies" afar is just that, as it makes it seem as if Ukraine is just a pawn in the game of empires.

     They are not.

   • Embed this notice
     Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Thursday, 17-Nov-2022 11:09:17 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • Alexandre Oliva

     @lxo just to be clear:

     > there are bullies on both sides of this conflict, one invading, the other inciting conflict and supporting the invaded from a long distance.

     I read this as a vague implication that somehow the USA "incited" that conflict. If that reading is correct, this *is* denying Ukrainians their right to self-determination.

     There is a reason they want to protect themselves from Russian imperialism. How is that reason not clear after almost 9 months of a bloody, imperialist war?

   • Embed this notice
     Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦 (rysiek@mstdn.social)'s status on Thursday, 17-Nov-2022 11:09:18 JST Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • Alexandre Oliva

     @lxo as a person born and raised in Central/Easter Europe, constantly under vague but real threat from our huge neighbor to the East, I am simply quite tired of people who do not have the local context and grasp of local history telling me (or Ukrainians, or...) what is the forest, where are the trees, and that our local context is just a "symptom."

     Ukrainians have the right to self-determination. There is currently only one world power that is bombing them for the audacity to exercise it.