Dr.Nick
By 2030, the Irish government plans to build 300,000 homes.
In the 1980s, 250,000 homes were built.
In the 1990s, 400,000 homes were built.
In the 2000s, 600,000 homes were built.
In the 2010s, 100,000 homes were built.
In the last 4 years, 100,000 homes were built.
Aral Balkan
@devxvda Good thing they’re 34. If either one was 44, they couldn’t even get that 30-year mortgage and would be paying that same amount every month on a €470k home. Ask me how I know :)
Dr.Nick
€600k is the current price of a 3 bed semi-detached house in Dublin.
John and Mary (34 yo) need a minimum €60k deposit and must have a combined income of €135k - or €68k each - to purchase this home. Their mortgage is €540k.
With a BER rating of C, the most common for second hand homes, their interest rate is 3.2%.
Each month, for the next 30 years, they will pay €2,335.
It will take them 101 months (~8 ½ years) to start paying more principal than interest. They will be 42 years old
Dr.Nick
The Irish government will make the entire country a "Rent Pressure Zone", negating the commonly understood meaning of the word Zone... Becoming "Rent Pressure".
They say these plans are to incentivise institutional investors... There are already incentives, such as:
* No Corporation Tax or CGT
* 24 month rent control reset
* HAP & HTB increasing prices
* RTB exemption for "Co-Living Spaces"
Meanwhile, in the last year prices are up 12.3%. Up 40% in the last 5 years - 100k for a median home.
Dr.Nick
ESRI: "No new homes 'til 2027, lads!"
Targets now:
2025: 34,000
2026: 37,000
2027: 44,000
2028: 43,000
2029: 43,000
Central Bank: "We need 54,000/year for 25 years just to stand still."
Reality check: 93,000/year won't fix the backlog in a decade.
Talks of 100% mortgages - they will only raise prices. We built 93,000 homes and had 100% mortgages back in 2006... Same year they made Priory Hall.
Dr.Nick
In those 10 years, homelessness up 575%.
In 2024, 15,000 people were homeless. 9,000 are families.
Cost? €361,000,000.
€40,111/family/year. €3,343pm
50% are homeless for over 1 year. 20% for over 2 years.
Median home price, €355,000.
Cost? 30 years at 3.0% - €1,496pm
€3,343pm clears that mortgage in 10 years.
We are spending more to keep people on the streets than in homes, with walls made of misery instead of brick. Build homes instead of excuses.
Dr.Nick
In the 2024 Irish elections, the parties in power promised ~50,000 new homes a year. This falls drastically short of current and expected demand.
Boycotting holiday homes in Mayo is not a solution.
Exempting a garden shed with notions from planning is not a solution.
Google offering housing to public sector workers is not a solution.
Blaming others is not a solution.
We know what the solution is. For 10+ years they've said "It won't happen overnight".
Bullshit - it won't happen at all
Dr.Nick
In the 1980s, an Irish couple spent 17% of their income on a mortgage.
Today? 26%.
Back then, the average home cost 1.7x the average income.
Now? Over 7x.
Dual incomes used to be optional and got you a nicer home or on the ladder faster.
Now? Mandatory - even for a shit box.
Single income households? Essentially locked out (average age 39).
So no, your parents didn't have it harder. They had it handed to them - and pulled the ladder up.
Dr.Nick
If the government instantly magiced 320,000 homes, we would meet today's demand. This includes an expected 5% turnover figure (i.e. for sale). Currently turnover is less than 1%
I'm under 40. 55,000 people sat the leaving cert exams when I did, 20 years ago. In 2024 that number was 61,000.
You'd need to make at least 80,000 new homes a year to keep up with today's demand - even after magically creating 320,000 homes. More in 10 - 15 years time.
Dr.Nick
A month after this post, people have realized (and are finally talking about the fact) that earning below €100,000 in Ireland means you cannot afford your own home.
Wait until they find out that we don't have the electric, gas, water, sewerage, or transport infrastructure either.
Dr.Nick
(Edited reply. Included here for continuity)
2025 Median John and Mary (combined income of €90k) need a €250k deposit for a €350k mortgage on a €600k Dublin 3 bed semi. €1,514pm
The deposit means Fiadh will never meet her grandfather. They told her it was quick. Peaceful. No suffering from the cancer eating away at him.
She will grow up in the house he never saw. A house not possible without him.
Her communion money would have bought him 12 months to live, if you could call it living.
Dr.Nick
Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe proudly announced 200k homes built since 2016 on the radio today.
Recall the second line in this thread: "In the 1980s, 250,000 homes were built."
200k homes in 9 years. 22,222 a year.
If Fiadh was born in 2016, she'd have her First Communion now. A Dublin 3 bed semi was €334k back then.
Fiadh has a dress & a cake for her Communion. She doesn't have an address for her teacher or cousin.
"200k homes" beams Paschal Donohoe. The spreadsheet says we're winning
Dr.Nick
Surely a larger deposit will save John, Mary, & Fiadh?
Let's try a 20% deposit - €120k thanks to the bank of Mom & Dad.
Mortgage of €480k at 3.2% = €2,076pm for 30 years.
Again they hit the "principal > interest" at 101 months. Fiadh's First Communion.
Surely her €10,000 Communion money will have more of an impact. They've done everything right!
9 months.
Fiadh's Communion money was enough for 9 months - not enough for a sibling.
John and Mary never explain. They did the maths years ago.
Dr.Nick
Fiadh¹, their child born shortly after moving into the house, will have their First Holy Communion at this time.
The mortgage is made up of €1,167 interest and €1,169 principal.
She gets €10,000 for this life event from friends and family. John and Mary put it towards the mortgage.
The next month they pay €1,137 interest and €1,198 principal.
It has knocked 8 months off the term.
__
¹ Irish feminine name meaning wildness
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