Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)'s status on Monday, 28-Apr-2025 23:51:29 JST kravietz 🦇

   There’s an interesting phenomenon in the Western perception of #Russia I’ve noticed a while ago and can’t really explain in rational terms.

   Russian officials can make the most violent, or openly genocidal statements but as long as they make them in Russian and directed to internal audience, they don’t exist. Of course, they do exist and they play their intended role - that is inciting and justifying violence against the targeted groups among Russians. But they go completely unnoticed in the West, as if they were never made.

   Of course, there is a number of experts who closely follow Russian narratives in Russian like Julia Davis or yours truly, but their findings very rarely find their way to the mainstream media.

   I don’t quite understand this. Before 2014 I do get it - Russian media were running in violent overdrive mode all the time but nothing came out of this talking. Today, Russians say it’s necessary to “eradicate Ukrainian identity”, “bomb civilians” and “blow up Western factories” and they simply do it. They kill hundreds civilians at a time and blow up things in EU.

   Yet, we still live in 2014 mode - “they’re just talking”… That’s the part I don’t get.

   • NeonPurpleStar :heart_bi: likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:41 JST kravietz 🦇

     in reply to

     • shuro
     • notsoloud
     • Bret Devereaux

     @shuro

     As the source link is blocked in Russia

     Oh, I’m honoured! 😄 Can you check if it’s the whole write.as domain or just my article? Also, write.as is federated on ActivityPub so you can just paste the URL into your Friendica instance search box and it should pop up as a native article in the time line.

     @notsoloud @bretdevereaux

     NeonPurpleStar :heart_bi: likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     shuro (shuro@friends.deko.cloud)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:43 JST shuro

     in reply to

     • notsoloud
     • Bret Devereaux

     @kravietz As the source link is blocked in Russia it must have been interesting to someone :)

     I think there is definitely something to it. Maybe there isn't something so structurally definite but described dynamics definitely happen and I observed some glimpses myself.

     @notsoloud @bretdevereaux

   • Embed this notice
     kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:44 JST kravietz 🦇

     in reply to

     • shuro
     • notsoloud
     • Bret Devereaux

     @shuro

     It worked rather well for them for quite some time.

     Are you aware of the “theory of opers and operators”? It’s a pretty good explanation on why things in Russia were developing in the direction that was apparently irrational from economic point of view, but made sense from the point of view of the largest professional group in the country 😉

     https://write.as/arcadian/theory-of-opers-and-operators-andmdash-in-search-for-rational-explanations-of

     @notsoloud @bretdevereaux

   • Embed this notice
     notsoloud (notsoloud@expressional.social)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:46 JST notsoloud

     in reply to

     • shuro
     • Bret Devereaux

     @shuro
     If Russia was trying to become strong, rich and healthy, they would have acted differently.

     @bretdevereaux made the point that industrialization has caused a phase change, where it pays better to build up internal improvements, rather than trying to grab from neighbors.

     This has somehow not occurred to the Kremlin. Maybe because their hold on power gets slippery once they allow the corresponding social developments?
     @kravietz

   • Embed this notice
     shuro (shuro@friends.deko.cloud)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:46 JST shuro

     in reply to

     • notsoloud
     • Bret Devereaux

     @notsoloud Our current government for long enough time wanted to keep status quo until nuclear warheads rust too much and then they and their children would happily relocate to their villas in Europe and become respectable citizens there :)

     It worked rather well for them for quite some time. Now when it doesn't what you said becomes apparent but it is not easy to restart development (even without war and sanctions) plus it requires a greater involvement of democracy for things to work properly - like not building planes where landing gear breaks through fuel tanks on touchdown. We'll see where it gets us in the next twenty years but the good news is that either way it will be okay for you - provided you won't get things too wrong on your end :)

     @kravietz @bretdevereaux

   • Embed this notice
     shuro (shuro@friends.deko.cloud)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:48 JST shuro

     in reply to

     • notsoloud

     @notsoloud It is important not to overdo it though.

     Countries are not attacked when the attacker clearly loses way too much to justify the attack. This can be military might which can inflict unacceptable damage to attacker, economic relations which make it the act of slaying the chicken laying golden eggs (or any kind of eggs which threatens sustenance) or mix of both. In a nutshell - rich, healthy and strong don't get attacked or subdued.

     However if something is seen as existential threat then preemptive attack can be seen as desperate measure without another way out.

     Also overspending on defense can lead to degradation of everything else, cause unnecessary arms race and lead to one or both of the above.

     So the right message in my opinion isn't "weapons, weapons, more weapons" but "let's be strong, rich and healthy".

     @kravietz

   • Embed this notice
     notsoloud (notsoloud@expressional.social)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:49 JST notsoloud

     in reply to

     • shuro

     @shuro
     To me it looks like more weapons make Russian invasion less likely. Si vis pacem, para bellum.
     @kravietz

   • Embed this notice
     shuro (shuro@friends.deko.cloud)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:50 JST shuro

     in reply to

     @kravietz The thing is that most of such messages are useless in this regard.

     Myself I don't remember significant uptick of hostile messaging before the 2022 escalation, for example. It mostly follows the situation. So what practical point would be served by giving more visibility to violent nonsense of Dmitry Medvedev (except maybe it would help people see perils of substance abuse more clearly)?

     There are specific variables which define the likeness of Russia attacking Poland (or any country for that matter). Ukraine wasn't invaded because of evil speeches. There are specific insurances to put in place to minimize and neutralize such risk - which Ukraine lacked. It makes me sad that they were needed in the first place but I guess we are not evolved enough for white picket fences between countries.

     At the same time you don't want to ignite fear and hatred as these lead to unreasonable responses - which is military overspending at best and escalating, arms race and higher chances of actual war breaking at worst. To me it seems that EU got the message and measures are being taken. We'll see how appropriate they are. I'd certainly prefer more of Germany GDP going towards building nice cars than tanks - yet some tanks have to be there for now.

   • Embed this notice
     kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:51 JST kravietz 🦇

     in reply to

     • shuro

     @shuro

     The practical benefit from amplifying such statements would be that our local idiots who claim “Russia would never attack Poland” (or EU) would be given a chance to see what the Russian side is thinking about it at any given moment.

   • Embed this notice
     shuro (shuro@friends.deko.cloud)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Apr-2025 01:48:52 JST shuro

     in reply to

     @kravietz It is not like there is lack of condemnation of Russia in scope of this conflict.

     Which messages would you like to see amplified and for what purpose? Most of these "statements" are exactly that - just violent talking, sometimes detached from reality. Personally I don't see what practical good can come from giving these extra reach.

     Kremlin on the other hand likes seeking out such nuggets and broadcasting them for internal audience like "look, what this NATO general stated (what actually was some slightly senile retired ex-military rambling on his Twitter).