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   Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 06:47:06 JST Evan Prodromou

   Hi! I need some help with math. Or statistics. Or something.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 06:47:33 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, I have a group of N objects. I want to pick out the M "best" objects, according to non-obvious criteria.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 06:47:54 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I have a comparator function F that can take two objects, A and B, and return the "better" object. Unfortunately, the function is shitty, and only accurate X% of the time. (X is around 70%, say). It is deterministic, though -- it returns the same value for the same pair of args every time.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 06:51:12 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     Fortunately, my comparator function is pretty cheap to run; I can run it as many times as I want. Ultimately, you can think of the output as a big set of tuples like (first, second, better) -- like (A, B, A) ("between A and B, A is better"). There would be N * (N - 1) such tuples.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 06:54:06 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I *think* can cheat here by using lots of comparisons in my selection mechanism. The chance that any comparison is wrong is 1-X%, but the chance that any two comparisons is wrong is (1-X)^2, and three comparisons being wrong is (1-X)^3, and so on. I'd like to figure out a way to use this to my advantage.

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     bjb :devuannew: :emacs: (bjb@fosstodon.org)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 07:00:59 JST bjb :devuannew: :emacs:

     in reply to

     @evan Is the comparison result supposed to be transitive? Ie (ignoring incorrect results) if (a better than b) and (b better than c), can we conclude that (a better than c)?

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 07:00:59 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • bjb :devuannew: :emacs:

     @bjb yes, ignoring incorrect results, they *should* be transitive.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 07:08:28 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • bjb :devuannew: :emacs:

     @bjb so one mechanism is to use multiple comparisons. Let's say that objects "really" compare by alphabetical order, and the comparator's accuracy is about 2/3. Here are some comparisons between A and E:

     (A, E, A)
     (B, E, B)
     (C, E, E) <- incorrect
     (D, E, D)
     (A, B, A)
     (A, C, A)
     (A, D, D) <- incorrect

     So, the evidence we have for A > E is:

     (A, E, A)
     (A, B, A) and (B, E, B)

     These don't help:

     (A, C, A) and (C, E, E)
     (A, D, D) and (D, E, D)

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 07:10:09 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • bjb :devuannew: :emacs:

     @bjb There are multiple pathways through here, though. I guess one way to do this is to count all the paths that show one conclusion, and all the paths that show the other conclusion, and whichever one is bigger, that's your real comparison.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:04:05 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, I've been noodling with this for a while, and here's where I'm at. Code here: https://github.com/evanp/inaccurate_comparator

     Basically, I realized that what I'm looking for is evidence in the output of a "real" difference. And that evidence can be direct or indirect: either I get "A > E" as output, or I get "A > B" and "B > E", which given the transitivity of the (real) operator, is also good.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:10:19 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, what I want to do is look at a bunch of comparisons, and see how many ways I can show that A > C, C > D, D > E, and so on. And, in the opposite direction, E > B, B > A, or whatever.

     And I kind of have the intuition that the more "proofs" in one direction than the other, the better. And the longer the proof, the better -- errors should introduce noise, instead of linking up and reinforcing each other.

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     Bruce Elrick (virtuous_sloth@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:11:15 JST Bruce Elrick

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     @evan My gut wants to construct a directed graph with nodes being your letters and edge weights/direction being your comparitor function.

     Then apply some graph algorithm.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:12:28 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, I did a little generator that models comparing alphabetical letters and occasionally gets it wrong. It outputs a CSV file showing the supposedly "greater" letter first. Here's a run with the first 5 letters of the alphabet:

     A,B
     A,C
     D,A
     A,E
     B,C
     D,B
     B,E
     C,D
     E,C
     D,E

     This has about a 30% error rate.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:17:55 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     Then, I wrote a little comparator function for any two letters, X and Y. It makes a directed graph, and then determines how many total paths there are from X to Y, and from Y to X. For the above data, it finds these paths:

     [['A', 'B', 'C', 'D', 'E'], ['A', 'B', 'E'], ['A', 'C', 'D', 'B', 'E'], ['A', 'C', 'D', 'E'], ['A', 'E']]

     [['E', 'C', 'D', 'A']]

     Note that there are 4 "real" paths and 1 "bad" path from A to E, and only one "bad" path from E to A. I use the sum of path lengths to compare.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:19:42 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I don't think this is really rigorous -- it's just based on some handwavy idea that it's hard for wrong comparisons to line up and give good proofs, and it gets very, very hard the longer the paths get and the more paths there are. I should probably spend some time proving it, though.

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     Bruce Elrick (virtuous_sloth@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:21:42 JST Bruce Elrick

     in reply to

     @evan This is why I want the graph algorithm.

     Just like a tournament with 3 teams can have A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A, resulting in an inconclusive result, having the weights as well as a global graph algorithm is needed to get a more meaningful result.

     Unfortunately I don't know what algorithm to apply (thinks back to undergraduate... source/sink, max-flow/min/cut, hands start waving).

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:22:01 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     Finally, I wrote a little script to use the comparison and sort the letters. It starts with the letters considered, scrambles them, and then uses the comparator to get them back in the same place. It also "scores" an arrangement by the sum of the offsets of each letter from its proper place.

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     Bruce Elrick (virtuous_sloth@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:22:22 JST Bruce Elrick

     in reply to

     @evan LOL we both wave hands.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:26:02 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, for the above data, it gives this output:

     original: ['A', 'B', 'C', 'D', 'E']
     scrambled: ['E', 'C', 'B', 'A', 'D']
     scrambled score: 10
     sorted using compare(): ['A', 'D', 'C', 'B', 'E']
     score of sorted: 4

     The output isn't blowing me away, but at least it's better than randomness. You can kind of see that the D and B are swapped, which seems... close to correct?

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:33:11 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, here are the bad parts:

     - That justification for comparing sum of total path lengths as the comparison is a little lame. I need to put that on more solid ground.
     - The output is OK, but not really stunning. In particular, there are a lot of swapped letters right next to each other.

     The biggest bad part, though, is that finding *all* the paths between two nodes in a directed graph is an exponential problem. I can run with 5 letters just fine, but 26 letters doesn't work at all.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:36:07 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I think I can fix that in a couple of ways. One is by doing binary search, which should cut down on some time.

     A second point is that I don't *actually* need to know *all* the paths in each direction. I just need to know which direction has *more* paths.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:37:45 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     So, I might be able to get away with doing a breadth-first search through the graph, and do the 2-node paths first, then the 3-node ones, and so on. And once one direction has an overwhelming number of paths, I could just bail out and say, hey, there probably aren't enough very long paths here to make a difference, and it's not worth trying to find them.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:41:38 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     For the record, the actual problem domain for me is climate change actions for cities, like putting in bike lanes, electrifying the bus fleet, or having a heating oil to heat pump rebate. My team made a heuristic comparator for actions (reduced emissions/cost, applicability for city bioregion, side benefits) but it only gets about 70% right on comparisons compared to human experts. We also trained an ML model based on the expert feedback, and that does better but not great.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:42:42 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     We have thousands of possible actions, and hundreds (soon thousands) of cities, so it's not feasible to have a human consider every one. We just want to get a set of top candidates for a city team to choose from.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 12:43:51 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • Bruce Elrick

     @virtuous_sloth Yeah, that is what I ended up doing! Read the rest of the thread!

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 13:03:57 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     Another thing about this process, for us, is that it's less about getting the actions in exactly the right order, and more about getting as many of the "real" top N actions, in any order, into the top N output. And for now this sorting process might be enough.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 13:04:41 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • drawnto 🟨⬜🟪⬛

     @drawnto yeah, if there was some systemic error we could identify it and correct it. For now, let's say it's uncorrelated.

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     drawnto 🟨⬜🟪⬛ (drawnto@woof.group)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 13:04:42 JST drawnto 🟨⬜🟪⬛

     in reply to

     @evan
     Is the likelihood of the wrongness of comparison completely uncorrelated to the symbols compared?
     If not this gets a lot harrier.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 13:06:07 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     • drawnto 🟨⬜🟪⬛

     @drawnto I don't think it's a knapsack problem, because there's no budget on the actions.

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     drawnto 🟨⬜🟪⬛ (drawnto@woof.group)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 13:06:08 JST drawnto 🟨⬜🟪⬛

     in reply to

     @evan
     This is actually a knapsack problem then.
     I recommend you to look into that instead. You are doing a lot of thinking on how to approach writing a heuristic (and suboptimal) solver for a knapsack like problem.
     Maybe considering it from the knapsack perspective helps.

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     Bruce Elrick (virtuous_sloth@cosocial.ca)'s status on Wednesday, 26-Feb-2025 13:08:40 JST Bruce Elrick

     in reply to

     @evan Yeah, saw it going. Good luck!