What precautions are you currently taking against #H5N1?
What plans do you have in case it becomes a #pandemic?
What new purchases have you made in preparation?
What precautions are you currently taking against #H5N1?
What plans do you have in case it becomes a #pandemic?
What new purchases have you made in preparation?
@sabik @justyourluck Not necessarily. And Covid precautions only work if they're used. We might see significant impediments to states trying to do outbreak control under a Trump admin (and there are no small amount of Democrats jumping enthusiastically on the anti-mask bandwagon).
@justyourluck
I mean, if #H5N1 becomes (or has already become) human-to-human, it'll be airborne, like covid, but less contagious; existing covid precautions should be fine?
@sabik @justyourluck H5N1 has also shown a major propensity to infect eye tissues, so ocular exposure may be a significant transmission risk. You may need to don significantly greater PPE to avoid exposure (3/4 or full face respirator, N95+smokejumper goggles, etc.)
@sabik @justyourluck And a less contagious illness can still reach a high percentage of the population. We've got no idea how contagious H5N1 will ultimately be in the human population if/when it jumps or how much potential it has to mutate and recombine with other strains to achieve a high degree of transmission potential. Covid went through multiple major evolutionary jumps during the first years of the pandemic that resulted in major shifts in its transmissibility. Omicron anyone?
@sabik @justyourluck And we have good evidence for pandemic influenzas ultimately reaching a high percentage of the population. Most estimates of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic agree that somewhere around 500 million people (~1/3rd of the world's population) was infected over the course of the pandemic, and that was a world of travel by boat and train, not plane and with far lower population densities.
@Infoseepage
That whole no planes bit has always amazed me. And barely automobile too. Travel was slow back then but that flu circled the planet pretty damn fast.
@sabik
@justyourluck @sabik And it truly was carried by boat. A ship called the Talune brought it to the Western Samoas in November of 2018, where the authorities failed to quarantine it. It resulted in one of the worst waves of death of the Spanish Flu anywhere, with an estimated 22% of the population dying. Nearby American Samoa was entirely spared the Spanish Flu due to strict quarantine procedures enforced by the naval base and the indigenous population.
@justyourluck @sabik There were other stories like this across the Pacific. Many later got influenzas years later, but at a fraction of the consequence to populations which got it during the global pandemic period. The virus had likely changed to something less inherently pathogenic in humans by then.
@justyourluck @sabik I was on Rarotonga at the beginning of the pandemic and they elected for a hard and long lockdown and didn't let up for a long time, even though their economy is largely based on tourism. Their outer island have extremely minimal healthcare and even their main hospital was extremely ill equipped to deal with the sort of ventilator and oxygen requirements they'd have needed if the virus had ripped on through their population.
@justyourluck @sabik They ended up vaccinating an extremely high percentage of their population up to the boosted level before having to face the virus and as a result, had one of the lowest mortality levels seen throughout the pandemic. Amazing when you have a people who care about each other's well being and prioritizes it.
@justyourluck @sabik I flew to Maui and needed to get a PCR test from an approved test company (which was basically a direct $ handout to a company which set up a few miles from the airport) and which could ensure rapid test results. I flew wearing a N100 mask and face shield, with a surgical to cover the exhalation valve. You had to submit all your documents in advance and there was an app with a QR code to verify everything on arrival.
@Infoseepage
Luckily it's relatively easy to lock down an island(s). I remember when Hawaii lifted their #Covid lockdown. Made me sad bcuz, well...
Re Ill-equipped: If I remember right, the teenager in BC who had a severe case of #H5N1 got some sort of plasma treatment that requires special equipment that most hospitals have, just not enough to care for lots of ppl during a pandemic
Just because your local hospital has the proper equipment to deal with it, you better be the only one!
@justyourluck @sabik They basically swapped out her entire blood plasma for three days in a row because they were worried about a cytokine storm. If you think that requires a lot of blood products to do, you're right. They also had her on a sort of continual dialysis machine and both ecmo (full heart lung bypass) and intubated for most of November. It was a heroic, extreme effort and there is no way to replicate that sort of intervention at scale.
@justyourluck @sabik There was also a sort of post arrival procedure where tourists staying in hotels had to stay in their rooms for a few days and then submit another test to be released. We had a family condo and I did the same and sent in a swab a few days after arrival if I remember the process correctly.
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