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1. Embed this notice
   HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Friday, 13-Dec-2024 07:57:30 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

   #GeoPol #WarInEurope #Belarus #NATO

   (1/2)

   OPINION

   #Putler is playing chess with #NATO. Having successfully re-activated his most succesful asset, the #OrangePeril, he's quietly been moving his biggest comparative strength vis-a-vis NATO, #TacticalNuclearWeapons, into strategic positions in his vassal state, #Belarus.
   This missiles are now able to hit the #BalticStates, #Poland, as well as #Slovakia.

   Using the West's permission (except...

   https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-range-russian-nukes-moved-closer-nato-countries-1998658

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Friday, 13-Dec-2024 07:58:10 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     #GeoPol #WarInEurope #Belarus #NATO

     (2/2)

     ...for #Germany's) to hit targets outside of #Ukraine as a pretext, he now has no moved all pawns into place and can wait until his #MAGA (#MoscowAgentGriftingAmerica) is inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2025.

     The only hope left for many ist that the #OrangePeril's perilous diet and life style will let him perish before that.

     #BraveNewWorld

     //

   • Embed this notice
     CaliCarol (jawarajabbi@mastodon.online)'s status on Friday, 13-Dec-2024 08:16:08 JST CaliCarol

     in reply to

     @HistoPol

     Putin'sceconomy will collapse before DJT kicks the bucket.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Friday, 13-Dec-2024 08:16:08 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • CaliCarol

     @jawarajabbi

     Hm, I've heard the former argument too frequently since the full-blown invasion of #Ukraine. I wish you were right, though.
     Also, I wish I had enough cash to counter Elmo's plutocratic takeover of the US. I wish...

     https://med-mastodon.com/@mloxton/113642237663530209

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 02:33:12 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (1/n)

     I kinda like your wording, "cosplaying". ;)

     True, howerver Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles would most definitely mean WWIII and an Apocalypse-Now scenario. Tactical Nuclear Weapons can be used way below eradicating a city and are therefore not part of that doomsday scenario.

     Yes, the Assad Dynasty is finished in Syria. However, an autocracy collapsing cannot be wholly, IMO, not even significantly attributed to a super power having failed.

     Russia's...

   • Embed this notice
     Coffeetest (coffeetest@infosec.exchange)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 02:33:13 JST Coffeetest

     in reply to

     @HistoPol Um, the USSR and now the new entity called the Russian Federation cosplaying an empire has ICBMs in service since the 1960s that could target anywhere since long before this new PR stunt of a missile existed.

     RF has failed in Syria, seems to be failing in Georgia, has spent hundred of thousands lives making tiny gains in a war with a country it swore to not invade. Its navy has failed to a country without a navy.

     Its economy failed catastrophically after a failed military quagmire in Afghanistan and doing its best to repeat that failure in Ukraine.

     That the west is allowing him to play checkers is embarrassing. Even with that he'll be lucky to be alive leading North Korean V2. Sure they can cause a lot of pain and misery along the way but RF is treated like they the USSR at their peak.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:01:45 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • the economist
     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (2/n)

     ...economy, for that matter, should have been wrecked by sanctions...years ago, time and again.

     I know, many economists think differently, but as #TheEconomist (@theeconomist) reported in March of this year (1) e.g.), and #BusinessInsider recently 2), the #RUS economy has proven very resilient, time and again.
     For one thing, apart from its #BlackFleet carrying sanctioned oil 3), it has diversified its illicit...

     1)
     https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/10/russias-economy-once-again-defies-the-doomsayers

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:03:53 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • the economist
     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest @theeconomist

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (3/n)
     
     ...national income by using cryptocurrency skemes around the globe, e.g. lately in #Canada. 4)

     It still retains the support of #NorthKorea, which will profit greatly from the fighter jets it will receive in return, as well as the other global super power, #China. IMO, #Russia is slowly but surely becoming a #Chinese vassal state. I'd argue, that #Xi would like the #Ukrainian war to continue, now that the...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:07:00 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • the economist
     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest @theeconomist

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (4/n)

     ...#MiddleEastWar might be turning to a close. The reason being that he's interested in diverting attention and test-casing how far an aggressor can go before the "internatatiol community" puts a stop to it. (Quite far, IMO.)

     I agree with your stance regarding #Afghanistan and the former #Russian invasion, when the great #RedArmy had to flee, the tail between its legs.
     At present, I don't see how the #RF would hold on...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:08:19 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • the economist
     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest @theeconomist

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (5/n)

     ...to half of #Ukraine, let alone all of it. That might not be what's required.

     I've long held the view, though, that a scorched-earth strategy for #UKR would be sufficient as a minimal strategic goal for the #Russian #stateterrorists: the ethnic #Finnish #KievanRus 5) are, IMO, THE heartland of Russia (I'm a #Normanist, btw ;)). The #Ukrainian population was seen as of the same blood, as brothers,...

     5)
     https://www.worldhistory.org/Kievan_Rus/

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:10:09 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • the economist
     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest @theeconomist

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (6/n)

     ...by most #Russians. In contrast to economically failing #Russia, #Ukraine was becoming an economically succesful western-styled #democracy, before the full-scale #Russian invasion took place. The only reason for economic discrepancies, therefore, could be the government. Therefore, #Putler could not permit a flourishing #Ukrainian Republic. He's even said that #Ukrainian indepence was a mistake of the former #Soviet government. In...

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:11:14 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • the economist
     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest @theeconomist

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (7/n)

     ...any case, this is something that the #Russian masses must never become aware of.
     So, my point is, a devestated #Ukraine (and he's already devestated huge areas in eastern #UKR!) might not be the best solution for the #Kremlin, but it is an acceptable outcome. To achieve this, they must not keep control of the country. Laying waste to most of #UKR will just do nicely.

     So, the question is, not IF he pulls out, but rather WHEN and HOW MUCH..

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:12:19 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • the economist
     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest @theeconomist

     #GeoPol #Russia

     (8/8)

     ...#Ukraine will he have laid waste to.THAT would be enough, as literally "insane" that might sound.

     //

     Annex:

     Missing footnote:

     3)
     https://mastodon.world/@Gilda/112505412505927368

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:17:34 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest

     "Economy. You have your sources so you are entitled to your informed opinion but time will tell despite what we believe."

     Likewise, chapeau. ;) Through discussions and dialogues, we learn.

     "Things take a lot more time than most think."

     Excactly. IMO, the final outcome will be that the #RF breaks apart, at least in three. The far-eastern part will become part of #China. The #Chinese government officials have even already begun to rename border regions in northern India, as...

   • Embed this notice
     Coffeetest (coffeetest@infosec.exchange)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:17:35 JST Coffeetest

     in reply to

     • the economist

     @HistoPol @theeconomist Economy. You have your sources so you are entitled to your informed opinion but time will tell despite what we believe.

     Look at their inflation, interest rates, currency valuation, declining worker population, loss of military contracts, a wartime economy that is rapidly depositing their reserves into a Ukrainian graveyard. What escape route do they have on all of that? Things take a lot more time than most think. We expect to see immediate reaction but organisms struggle to survive despite a losing battle.

     Sorry I am not letting you finish your thread before replying. I have to refocus on other things shortly.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:20:31 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest

     (2/2)

     ...well as south-eastern Russia.

     I do not disagree with your analysis at all. I'm just afraid that #Putler will take #Ukraine down with his regime, or rather before he falls.

     I pray and hope, that I'm wrong. Either way, the #OrangePeril, Moscow's most successful asset of all times, is getting another chance to wreck the US and the global post-WWII security framework, or rather what's left of it, apart form #NATO.

     Have a great day/WE.

   • Embed this notice
     Coffeetest (coffeetest@infosec.exchange)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:26:34 JST Coffeetest

     in reply to

     @HistoPol Perhaps more is to come with the 1/n but in flight an IRMBs and ICMBs are not distinguishable. So in terms of an object in flight the assessment of risk is the same.

     I cannot see any reason why an ICBM cannot contain a smaller warhead - that's all we are talking about. The only distiquishing feature of this new missile is its range. There are many missile capable of being tactical nukes.

     RF has subs which can go anywhere and strike anything that matters.

     As far as super power - that was the USSR. RF has the economy of a US state and a dramatically failing one at that. Yes, it has nukes but that does not make it a super power.

   • Embed this notice
     HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (histopol@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 14-Dec-2024 03:26:34 JST HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

     in reply to

     • Coffeetest

     @coffeetest

     Sorry for being ambious, I meant China. The RF is no superpower.